Author: Alexei Vlasov, exclusive to VK
The political processes in Georgia are still strongly influenced by the changing dynamics of relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. So last week almost the main news for the local media was the meeting in Prague between the State Secretary, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin and the special representative of the Prime Minister of Georgia on relations with Russia, Zurab Abashidze. "The talks were about the visa regime. The Georgian side is interested in easing the visa regime for citizens of Russia in Georgia. We will think hard about making use of opportunities for further easing the regime. This homework is the work we have to do at the inter-agency level," Karasin said after the talks. Another good news for Georgia is that it is quite likely that wine and mineral water will return to Russia in the near future.
It is noteworthy that the visit of experts from Rospotrebnadzor was held with exceptional solemnity. Catholicos-Patriarch of All Georgia Ilia II received the Russian experts in his residence. Ilia II expressed his satisfaction at the fact that the embargo on Georgian products will be removed in Russia. "The Patriarch said that this fact will contribute to the resolution of the complex relations between Russia and Georgia," local media report. In turn, the rhetoric of the Russian media, which are increasingly turning to items reflecting positive changes in Georgian politics and bilateral relations, also softened.
However, much will depend on the stability of the situation of the new Georgian authorities, who continue to face strong pressure from the outgoing government. The expected meeting between Saakashvili and Ivanishvili was postponed until March 4, but there is no guarantee that dialogue between the president and the prime minister would be a decisive step to reduce the potential for conflict in the country. It is likely that tension will increase further, especially since on February 26 Ivanishvili appealed to the President of Georgia with a statement in extremely tough style, noting that Saakashvili should determine his position on the constitutional amendments as soon as possible. "In the next two or three days, you should clearly and unequivocally state whether you support the ban on the change of government without the consent of Parliament or not," Ivanishvili said. He also stressed that "the question of power in the country is settled. Our constitutional changes will be put to the vote in the Parliament before the end of March. And this vote will really become a watershed."
Another indication of maintaining the same trends in the relationship between the old and the new government in Georgia is the attempts by Ivanishvili to limit the real power of his opponent. Saakashvili has already lost a number of important policy tools. For instance, the intelligence service of Georgia can be taken out of the control of the President and subject to the government. It is assumed that the State Intelligence Service of Georgia will be under direct government control, and the issue of the appointment of higher staffing services will be addressed by the Prime Minister personally.
The hard pressure on Saakashvili's entourage continues, although the situation with Bacho Akhalaia and Gigi Ugulava is not unambiguous.Tbilisi City Court dismissed the petition for preventative measures for Ugulava in the form of a pledge of 1 million laris and his removal from the post of mayor. The court found these demands unreasonable. In response, the Chief Prosecutor of Georgia, Archil Kbilashvili, said the court decision would be studied, and if prosecutors deemed that it was illegal, it would appeal against it. One thing is clear - the new authorities do not intend to soften their course regarding the "servants" of the Saakashvili regime.
The investigation continues of the criminal cases against former Prime Minister and former Minister of the Interior Vano Merabishvili, his deputies and several MPs from UNM, who served at various positions in the administration of President Saakashvili. As noted by the Tbilisi correspondent of VK, this process is accompanied by a large-scale information war and threats to incite the people to storm his residence.
Therefore, it seems that the meeting on March 4 is unlikely to lead to the compromise sought by the West, for which the warring factions are probably not ready.
Armenia is gradually getting out of the extreme post-election situation. Raffi Hovannisian completely used his unexpected success in the results of the presidential campaign, and the authorities with the support of Russia and the West were able to keep things under control, that is, nobody lost anything. Now there's an interesting question - what comes next? The government will soon resign, and the first intrigue is about who will enter the new composition of the Cabinet. The President of Armenia is soon expected to announce new priorities in domestic and foreign policy.
Moscow and Washington seem to be closely monitoring the situation. For example, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry congratulated Serzh Sargsyan on his re-election, at the same time declaring his readiness to facilitate the negotiation process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. "I am ready to help your country to find solutions to a peaceful settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and I ask you to continue to assist the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group. We cannot be satisfied with the status quo, we should use this time to provide substantial assistance to the peace process," the message by Kerry to Sargsyan reads.
The meaning of these words (or is it nothing more than a protocol sentence?) will become clear in the near future. But it is known for sure that Serzh Sargsyan will leave for Moscow on March 12 to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Issues included in the agenda of the visit are related to the Eurasian Union, the Customs Union and the reform of the CSTO. According to Armenian media, the President also plans to discuss the start of work on Khojaly airport. "However, our sources close to the presidential administration rule out the opportunity to discuss these issues at the meeting, but, nevertheless, it is clear that the meeting will be crucial to determine the political vectors," Hraparak reports.
Here, perhaps, it would be worth noting that this and the theme of Russian gas supplies, or more precisely, the price of the gas, is much more important for bilateral relations than the question of opening the airport. At least, the economic situation in Armenia directs the newly-elected president to be pragmatic and perhaps to respond more clearly to the "Eurasian proposal" made by Vladimir Putin.
The event of the week in Azerbaijan was the anniversary of the tragic events in Khojaly. In addition to this subject, local media extensively covered the visit by Mikheil Saakashvili, who received a "royal welcome." As Ilham Aliyev pointed out in his speech, "specific projects are being undertaken, which will further bring together our two countries and peoples. Also, there are very good prospects for the future. In order to ensure this, we should maintain the steady course of integration and coordination in the international sphere. The successful completion of our specific economic and infrastructure projects will also contribute to stability in the region and the well-being of our peoples."
The key phrase in this case is "coordination of efforts in the international arena." Baku is seriously concerned about the prospect of Georgia's foreign policy course correction applied to the current realities in the South Caucasus. Hence the support for the position of the current President of Georgia by the Azerbaijani elite is natural. Here the issue is not personal sympathies or antipathies but the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. Saakashvili quite subtly uses this situation to his advantage.
On the other hand, given the increasing activity in the area of conflict, the leadership of Azerbaijan implements a unique audit of the current position of all major regional and extra-regional players. The test questions are the topic of opening the airport in Karabakh, and the events of 1992 in Khojaly.
The severity of the confrontation is on the rise, which is evidenced by events in France, where there have been clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani youth. And this is very alarming symptom. It is no longer just about the hidden struggle between lobbying groups in the parliamentary structures, like in Lithuania; there are direct clashes between the diasporas in different countries and on different continents.
In essence, this is another signal to the intermediaries - maintaining the status quo in the Karabakh conflict is becoming increasingly difficult.
