Mikhail Belyaev exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
A recent visit by the Georgian President to Azerbaijan created a stir. Baku and Tbilisi were put into a flutter by Saakashvili’s statements that Moscow is preparing a revolution in Azerbaijan along the lines of the Georgian scenario. “We will face further disintegration of the country into new autonomies, while in Azerbaijan they are preparing an overthrow along the lines of the Georgian scenario. A. Sadykov has been in Russia, he is from the Gardaban region of Georgia. He is a billionaire and promised that he would achieve an autonomy for Georgian Azerbaijanis. The same is promised by the Armenian activist Vaagn Chakhalyan – an autonomy for Armenians of Georgia. Sadykov, together with billionaire Vagit Alikperov and others, are preparing what was done in Georgia for Azerbaijan,” Saakashvili said. Both the press-service of LUKoil and Sadykov immediately rejected the words of the Georgian President. Baku didn’t like Saakashvili’s statements either.
We should note a certain tension in Russian-Azerbaijani relations, which appeared after negative results of the talks on prolongation of the radio-location station’s rent in Qabala, improvements of military cooperation between Russia and Armenia, and the Azerbaijani-Turkish decision on constructing the TANAP gas pipeline. In addition, official Baku doesn’t like the idea of a “Union of Billionaires” involving major businessmen from Azerbaijan and there have been no top-level contacts between Moscow and Baku since the beginning of Putin’s third term. Thus, it seems the sides have cut each other off .
In this context the statements by the Georgian President only add fuel to the fire. The Azerbaijani presidential administration decided to disown Saakashvili’s words. Novruz Mamedov, a foreign political aide, stated: “The issues touched on in the statement are surprising. Even though the processes which are happening in Georgia and Azerbaijan have similarities, it would be wrong to draw a clear parallel between them. Every state has its own course in either internal or foreign policy. On the other hand, Saakashvili’s statement on the position of some Azerbaijanis living in Russia, which is dangerous for Azerbaijan, is his private opinion. Saakashvili’s views do not sound convincing. I personally participated in the meetings during Saakashvili’s visit and can say with no doubts that these views were not discussed. I am sorry that he ascribed the opinion to Azerbaijan.” Mamedov emphasized that Azerbaijani-Russian relations are at a level which requires the absence of such statements.
These Azerbaijani arguments mean that official Baku doesn’t want a confrontation with its northern neighbor. However, the diplomatic form of expression of this idea is understood by some experts in a different way. The Azerbaijani agency Turan reports: “It is not the first statement by the Georgian President about a threat to independence of Azerbaijan. During his speech to the Azerbaijani parliament on March 7, 2012, Saakashvili directly said that “Russia has always been and will be an empire, whatever name it uses. Its leadership is trying to gather lost territories… That is why we, the Caucasus countries, should be together so as not to be captured and destroyed one by one.” This statement was later hysterically judged by MPs, pro-governmental analysts, and the mass media. This time the reaction was calm, which confirms the satisfaction of official Baku with the Georgian President’s words.”
The article’s authors reasonably remembered Saakashvili’s visit to Azerbaijan last year. Such behavior clearly demonstrates that the Georgian President doesn’t want to consider the specifics of Azerbaijani-Russian relations. However, it is wrong to call the clear message by Novruz Mamedov “a smooth reaction.” A year ago Saakashvili was a key figure in his state and his words were much more valuable than today. That is why the Azerbaijani political environment expressed its reaction in a wide-ranging manner. Today the situation is different – it is somewhat ridiculous, because the Georgian Foreign Ministry openly states that the President’s words do not reflect the official position of the country. Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili noted that Saakashvili’s statements “annoyed everyone in Azerbaijan.”
It is obvious that in Azerbaijan they treat Saakashvili’s statement through the perspective of his internal political problems; thus, they took no additional steps on Mamedov’s message.
