Susanna Petrosian, Yerevan, specially for "Vestnik Kavkaza"
The past week in Armenia was marked by a trial in the Constitutional Court (CC) on the petitions of two former candidates for the presidency: the deputy director of Radio Ai, Andreas Ghukasyan, and the main rival to President Serzh Sargsyan, the president of the parliamentary opposition Heritage party, Raffi Hovhannisyan. They demanded that the CC declare the results of the presidential elections on February 18 to be invalid. The dismissal of the claims came as no surprise to Armenians. According to long lasting tradition, the Armenian CC follows the instructions of the executive authorities. This time, unlike in 2003 and 2008, when the campaign headquarters of opposition presidential candidates Stepan Demirchyan and Levon Ter-Petrosya had serious evidence, the claims of the representatives of Heritage were not supported by the necessary legal framework and were generally of an ill-founded character. Unfortunately, the plaintiffs' allegations, accusing the Central Electoral Committee (CEC) of fraud, cast a shadow on the legal side of the opposition's fight. Now a misconception could be formed that the Armenian opposition has always used its right to appeal to the Constitutional Court only as another forum for the expression of its political position.
Either way, the CEC's decision put an end to post-election developments in Armenia. Unlike the post-election processes in 2003 and 2008, they did not have any activities on a grand scale. Hovhannisyan, according to the CEC, obtained 540 thousand votes, but his rallies attracted only a few thousand. This is probably an indicator of a protest vote, and already at the May 5th City Council elections a completely different picture will be formed, since the protest votes will be split and will go to their "rightful" candidates - more powerful opposition forces, such as the Armenian National Congress, the Prosperous Armenia (PA) party and Dashnaktsutiun.
Hovannisian and his colleagues have not managed to win the support of other opposition forces. They have criticized the PAP too consistently, suggesting that this force is still part of the government and that its leader Gagik Tsarukyan is an oligarch. The ANC was attacked by Heritage for its cooperation with the PAP.
Even marginal parties have not joined Heritage, only a few intellectuals and representatives of civic organizations have expressed support for Hovannisian, which is not enough to transform the protests into a broad social and political movement. The protest electorate, a substantial part of which is formed by radical citizens, are suspicious of Hovannisian's banning of the slogan "Serge, go away!" and his labelling of these protesters as provocateurs. Hovannisian's meeting with the president also caused bewilderment, as well as his repeated assurances that he is willing to meet Serzh Sargsyan on Freedom Square.
Let us recall that the ANC, which in the summer of 2011 negotiated with the government in order to secure the release of the oppositional activists, largely lost in the eyes of the radically minded electorate. This was reflected in the results of the parliamentary elections on 6 May last year, when the ANC won only 7% - three times less compared to the results of the ANC leader, former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan, in the 2008 presidential elections.
The radicalism of a significant number of tye protesters in Armenia is completely justified given the poor socio-economic situation. In this regard, Hovannisian's statement about the need for the resignation of many civil servants does not encounter understanding among many citizens, who expect from the movement some specific steps towards real change.
It is possible that it was this discrepancy between the declarations of the opposition standing today on Freedom Square and the expectations of citizens that caused such a rapid extinction of the already small wave of popular discontent, and perhaps was the reason for Hovannisian's choice of a new form of protest against the fraudulent elections - a hunger strike.
The Head of the Center for Political Studies "Verelk" ("Ascent"), Artsrun Pepanyan, believes that Hovannisian had to combine all the key opposition and semi-opposition forces in order to ensure success in the future political struggle, but for some reason he failed to do so: "In particular, the ANC first wanted to see an action plan, and the PAP accepts only itself as a unifying axis. Therefore, Hovannisian's hunger strike can be seen as the step of a politician who is under time pressuire. Let us remember that not long ago he said that there would be no need for a hunger strike in the future."
According to the Deputy Director of the Caucasus Institute, political analyst Sergey Minasyan, Hovannisian's hunger strike will not change the political situation in the country: "If he wants to change this situation radically, there is a need for more efficient methods, for instance, mass meetings comparable to the events of 2007-2008, but not a hunger strike, although rallies as such are not a guarantee of success."
"Both the de-jure and de-facto presidential elections are over, regardless of the steps taken by Raffi Hovannisian, be it meetings, or hunger strikes," political analyst Armen Badalyan says.
Because the presidential election results were predetermined, they have not had a significant impact on the balance of political forces. The ruling Republican Party of Armenia and its partner in the ruling coalition the "Country of the Rule of Law" continues to be a well-organized and cohesive political unit, in control of the processes in the country. It is unlikely that the ANC, the PAP or the ARF, who "froze" their political activity for the duration of elections with a predetermined outcome, could lose their electorate. Forecasts by state-controlled political scientists and sociologists that the rating of the ANC, PAP and ARF, because of their refusal to participate in the election approaches zero, turned out to be hasty.
Today, these forces are getting ready for the upcoming May 5 elections to the Council of Elders in Yerevan, which, according to analysts, may be the most important political event, comparable to the parliamentary elections.
