Baku-Tehran: a game of nerves

Author: Orkhan Sattarov, head of European office of VK

The visit of Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Elmar Mammadyarov to Israel, which was described as "historic" by Israeli President Shimon Peres, has left many questions regarding the future prospects of not only Azerbaijani-Israeli ties, but also the Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. Sending its minister to Tel Aviv, Baku has made the step which it did not dare to make during all the history of its independence. Such a wariness of Azerbaijan was connected, first of all, with Tehran’s zealous attitude towards any manifestation of Azerbaijani-Israeli partnership. As former foreign policy adviser of Heydar Aliyev’s team Vafa Guluzade told Azerbaijani journalists, Azerbaijan has once came close to organize the official visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Israel. However, the ex-president, basing on geopolitical considerations, refrained from doing so. Guluzade believes that the visit of Elmar Mammadyarov to Tel Aviv is a "revolutionary" step of Azerbaijani diplomacy carrying with it certain risks.

However, if we consider in detail the development of Azerbaijani-Israeli and Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, the visit seems not so much revolutionary as expected. It should be recalled that in June 2009, Israeli President Shimon Peres visited Azerbaijan, causing opposition from Tehran at a foreign policy level and through Islamist parties close to it and operating in Azerbaijan. The response message of Baku, voiced by Elmar Mammadyarov, was clear: "Azerbaijan does not interfere in the internal affairs of other states and will not allow others to interfere in their affairs." As Mammadyarov emphasized, Baku does not discuss or make assessments of visits to Iran of the leadership of Armenia, which occupied the territory of Azerbaijan.

Visit of the Azerbaijani foreign minister to Israel can be explained not only by intense bonds between Baku and Tel Aviv in the energy and defense industries, but is also a direct consequence of the weakening of Iranian influence in Azerbaijan. This is due, in turn, to a permanent tension which undermines the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations regularly shaken by new scandals and negative impact on the image of Iran in Azerbaijan as a whole. Less than a year after the release of Azerbaijani poets Farid Hussein and Shahriyar Hajizadeh held for several months in an Iranian prison without explanation, the Iranian security forces have arrested two citizens of Azerbaijan. In a scientific staff member of the Nizami Institute of Literature of the National Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, an orientalist Khalida Khalid and her assistant Shamakh. The arrest took place in Tabriz on April 30 - by a strange coincidence, just a few days later after Elmar Mammadyarov’s visit to Israel. It is also significant that the Azerbaijani citizens were arrested in the background of the official visit to Iran of Head of the Presidential Administration Ramiz Mehdiyev. The newly appointed Ambassador of Iran to Azerbaijan Mohsen Pak Ayin, who is working intensively with the Azerbaijani mass media to create a positive image of the country, published an article on the Iranian-Azerbaijani relations and timed to Ramiz Mehdiyev’s visit to Iran. In particular, the article states that "this visit will retain the strategic position of Azerbaijan in foreign policy of Iran, and, taking advantage of the existing potential, Iran and Azerbaijan will become regular partners ... Scientists and intellectuals of both countries could play a constructive role in strengthening relations between Tehran and Baku. " It is symbolic that simultaneously with publishing this article it was announced about the arrest of Azerbaijani scientist in Iran. This is an open question whether we witness an unfortunate coincidence or deliberate provocation.

The formulation of reasons for the arrest of Azerbaijani citizens is also quite interesting - for "unusual activity." In a conversation with the author of these lines one of the employees of German Ministry of Foreign Affairs, specializing in the South Caucasus region, ironically said that such a unique article allows putting a good half of the residents of Berlin to jail.

Do Azerbaijan and Iran face a new round of confrontation associated with Elmar Mammadyarov's visit to Israel and the subsequent arrest of Azerbaijani citizens in Iran? If we rely on the expertise already available in the bilateral relationship, the answer to this question, perhaps, will be heard in the affirmative. Recall that last year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev did not attend the summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran, preferring to pay a working visit to Belarus. In expert circles, however, the view was that the real underlying reason for the president's decision was politically motivated arrest of two Azerbaijani citizens. Only after their release on behalf of the ayatollah of Iran a relative warming of bilateral relations began.

We can only hope that this time, Iran and Azerbaijan will find the political will to abandon the policy of making old mistakes, not deepening the contradictions and creating spirit of partnership and friendship, which is so often mentioned by senior officials of both countries.