Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
The presidential election campaign in Azerbaijan is entering a decisive phase. Just a few months are left until the day the inhabitants of the republic will vote. Although the most active phase of elections is yet to come, the summer of 2013 for the Azerbaijani government and the opposition will be a hot time, and there is nothing surprising in the fact that many officials have significantly reduced or completely rejected vacations at this crucial moment.
Russian and Western experts unequivocally agree that the chances of the candidate number 1, incumbent President Ilham Aliyev, for re-election are great. The intrigue with the nomination of "government candidate" has died at a time when on June 7 at the Congress of the ruling party "Yeni Azerbaijan" Aliyev was nominated as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election. Thereby the power put an end to speculation that excited the local elite for a few months.
Nevertheless, support for the incumbent president even before the party forum was declared by a number of Azerbaijani youth organizations and non-governmental institutions, and even in the camp of the moderate opposition there were those who previously acknowledged the inevitability of the victory of Ilham Aliyev over opponents.
On the opposite side everything is not so obvious. For almost a year, opposition leaders were trying to agree on a single candidate. And shortly before the official start of the election campaign they were able to sign an agreement on the establishment of the National Council, in which the main role would be played by a famous film director Rustam Ibrahimbekov.
However, the "coordinating councils” of the opposition are not piece-goods. Several times parties and movements close to the so-called Public Chamber declared the creation of a single center consolidating the actions of the Azerbaijani opposition in the upcoming elections. But each time objective and subjective circumstances prevented the actual integration of opponents of the current government.
For example, it is necessary to take into account the position of the leaders of the "Musavat" party, in particular, Isa Gambar, who very carefully assessed the possibility of nominating a single candidate, without denying, however, the principal possibility of cooperation in the media or organizational terms.
From this point of view, Ibragimbekov achieved formal unification of the opposition forces, but did not address the question of who will be the only candidate in the elections in October 2013, and with what political platform he will appeal to the citizens of this country. In this case, it seems to be the main stumbling block to the achievement of real consent.
However, the question is not only ambition, but a real program of action, with which opposition candidates are ready to go to their constituents. About this Ilham Aliyev spoke in his speech at the congress of "Yeni Azerbaijan": "Of course, the political struggle must go on. There should also be a relationship between the government and the opposition. But the important thing is that all the political forces should be committed to statehood and independence. Those forces which are not committed to this should be updated. New people should come to power, and outdated "leaders" should go to the archives of history. Indeed, they have long been found in the archives of history, just yet they have not realized this”.
It seems that the President of Azerbaijan spoke not only of his opponents in the political arena of the country, but also about officials mistakenly combining their personal interests with those of the state. It is likely that the success of the current head of state, in which experts have virtually no doubt, will lead not only to a profound change in the opposition side, but also to the renewal of the president's team, which should lead to the new reforms in the political and economic spheres.
With regard to external factors, neither Russia nor the West are interested in destabilizing the situation in Azerbaijan - a key country in the South Caucasus region. Nevertheless, we must admit that there are some disagreements between Baku and Brussels. Washington and Moscow actively discussed them in the international media over the last year.
However, there is no reason to believe that Russia intends to intervene in the election campaign in Azerbaijan. Those candidates who transparently hinted at their links with the Kremlin seem to be wishful thinking. On the contrary, it is hoped that after the completion of the election campaign the Russian-Azerbaijani relations will get a boost, especially if, finally, the meeting between the two presidents - Vladimir Putin and President Ilham Aliyev – takes place, which can finally resolve the issues that have been accumulated in the bilateral agenda over the last few years. This new impetus to cooperation and effective communication is necessary to the people of Russia and Azerbaijan, the friendship between which exists and develops regardless of the political situation.
