Viktoria Panfilova, NG’s observer, exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
A regional visit to the South Caucasus by the foreign minister of Ukraine, the current OSCE chairman, Leonid Kozhara, which was planned for this weekend was postponed. Instead of three countries, he will visit only Georgia where he will meet the leaders of the state and will discuss Georgian-Ukrainian relations, as well as will sign the road map of bilateral political consultations between Kiev and Tbilisi for 2013-2014.
His reasons for visiting only Georgia are unclear. Yerevan keeps silent about the situation, Baku also. A source which is close to the Azerbaijani foreign ministry made a suggestion that the initiative of postponing the visit was voiced by Baku which is interested in settlement of the Karabakh conflict. “However, it is possible that the visit by Leonid Kozhara was postponed due to a very tense schedule of President Ilham Aliyev,” the source said.
The Azerbaijani leader will undertake a crucial visit to Brussels in the nearest future; he was invited by the European Commission’s chairmanJosé Manuel Barroso. The head of the EU office in Azerbaijan Roland Kobia told journalists that during Ilham Aliyev’s visit a decision on opening the South Gas Corridor would be made. “Azerbaijan is the major partner of the EU in the region of Eastern Partnership; and we intend to provide both political and economic cooperation,” Kobia said. It is expected that Aliyev will announced Baku’s decision on a route of gas export from Shah Deniz to Europe in Brussels. The majority of experts on energy think that Azerbaijan will choose Nabucco West.
On the other hand, we cannot exclude that the visit by Leonid Kozhara in the context of settlement of the Karabakh problem is “not interesting.” It is difficult to imagine that he will present such a way of settlement of the conflict, which will satisfy both Azerbaijan and Armenia. Moreover, in the context of the summit of G-8 in Northern Ireland, the regional visit by the Ukrainian foreign minister could appear to be fuzzy because attention of the region’s countries and the international society will be drawn to this part of the UK where presidents of Russia, the USA, and France should make a statement on Nagorno-Karabakh.
There is no information on the new document. Apparently Vladimir Putin, Barack Obama, and Francois Hollande will make a statement on necessity to support the Minsk Group’s efforts, which supervises the negotiations on prevention of military actions and escalation of tension, as well as peaceful settlement of the conflict. In general the formal document will demonstrate that the Karabakh process is in the center of the attention of the world leaders and that they control the satiation.
Meanwhile, the region can experience changes in the nearest future. Hassan Rouhani’s victory in the presidential elections in Iran can cause reconsideration of Western policy toward the state. First of all, it concerns cooperation on energy. If Tehran is involved into “oil combinations,” it will influence negatively Azerbaijan. Of course, it is stupid to state that Baku’s positions will significantly weaken or that it will become less interesting for the West, but exclusiveness of Azerbaijan’s position can be ruined – Iran possesses huge gas resources, and it is hard to compete with it. So, Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Brussels can be considered as a desire to mark out the position in the important geostrategic project.
