Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
The situation in Syria continues developing to the most negative scenario. After a heavy defeat at the hands of government forces in May 2013, when the Syrian rebels had to retreat from the strategically important city of Al-Qusayr, Western society woke up and switched the manual control mode on. Ahead of the developments, the German intelligent services reconsidered their forecasts on an inevitable failure of the Syrian government in the war against rebel troops. According to new predictions, Assad’s days are not numbered anymore. Moreover, his troops managed to succeed in recent times, for instance, to restore provision of fuel for tanks and aircrafts and to fling back the opposition from Damascus’ suburbs.
The coalition of Assad’s enemies realized that without quick steps on “restoration of the balance” the government's army supported by Hezbollah and the Iranian military would turn the tide in its favor.
Assad’s regime didn’t collapse in an instant as the West expected. Top officers and generals don’t run from his army anymore, like it was in the beginning of the war. Many in Syria realized that Assad had significant chances for defeating the opponent. At the same time, the Syrian military understands that they are fighting not only against rebels, but also terrorists of al Qaeda and numerous militants, representing interests which are opposite to the Syrian ones.
Considering the development of the situation, the prepared scenario of finding evidence that Bashar Assad’s regime used chemical weapon was launched. Russia's chief diplomat, Sergey Lavrov, posed a logical question: “What is the point of using chemical weapon by the regime in such a trace amount to expose itself?” The question remained with no answer. Meanwhile, the White House decided to export arms to the Syrian rebels.
The Arab monarchies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, also made a decision to supply Syrian rebels with weapons. According to The Washington Post, these will be antiarmour weapons and air defense systems. Germany spoke against providing Syrian militants with weapons because it would lead to worsening of the crisis in the country. Germany’s partners in NATO, France and the UK continue insisting on arms exports.
Prospects for the peacemaking conference Geneva-2 are rather dim. Considering the informational background, it will be postponed till August or September. It means Syria will face a hot summer because each side will do its best to turn the situation in its favor of dictating its conditions in Geneva-2.
