Innokenty Adyasov, expert of the Council under the Committee on the CIS Affairs of the State Duma. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The election of the new president of Iran, Hassan Rouhani, who is thought to be a representative of the reformists, is accompanied by a serious expectation of changes in the foreign policy of Tehran. These expected changes are caused by the situation in Iran’s economy. International sanctions damaged it heavily: the volume of oil export reduced, inflation grew rapidly, prices grew as well. Hassan Rouhani will have to build new relations with the world; the main idea of the new course by Iranian President will probably be a shift away from radical confrontation which was typical for Ahmadinejad.
The political and religious authorities of Iran agreed on providing a new course, and it will make Rouhani feel confident. It seems the main goal of the new Iranian president is a reduction of sanctions on the nuclear program of Tehran. The topic is well-known to Rouhani – he headed the Iranian delegation during the talks with P5+1 (permanent five members of the UN Security Council and Germany).
Russia’s position on the Iranian nuclear program is well-known – Tehran has a right to the development of peaceful nuclear power; at the same time, Moscow supports the IAEA’s demand to allow experts of the organization access to all Iranian nuclear facilities. Moscow and Beijing have always stood against threats by the USA and Israel to use military force against the nuclear program of Iran.
Theoretically the military operation against nuclear facilities in Iran would have very negative consequences for neighbors of the Islamic republic in the CIS, first of all for Azerbaijan. Thus, official Baku completely supports Moscow’s efforts on peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear problem.
Participation of Iran is highly important for settlement of the other problem which is a threat for the whole region of the Middle East – the civil war in Syria. It continues for a third year, becomes more and more international and can have very negative consequences in the region (tension is growing in Lebanon and Iraq).
Russia realizes the importance of Tehran in the processes over and inside Syria and stands for inviting Iran to the peaceful conference Geneva-2. The EU is ready to support Russia’s proposal under certain conditions as political advance to the new president of Iran. At the moment, the USA cannot agree with participation of Iran, and it influences negatively prospects of holding Geneva-2. Russia fears that the wave of violence can come from Syria to the CIS. Cooperation with Iran in the sphere of settlement of the Syrian conflict is a very important contribution to security of the CIS space, especially in its south borders.
For sure, the South Caucasus will take special place in the foreign policy by Hassan Rouhani. Iran, as well as Moscow, has good relations both with Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, Moscow and Tehran believe that the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh should be settled on the basis of the UN SC resolutions which recognize territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. However, under the new president Iran will claim for a bigger role in the region of the South Caucasus.
The Iranian authorities negatively view possibilities of changing power through “colour revolutions” in the region because they fear that it can lead to destabilization of the situation in Iran itself. According to experts, Azerbaijan plays a special role in the plans on the economic development of Iran.
