Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
Yerevan is trying to make a choice between the European Union and the Russia-led Customs Union. Despite all the assurances of some Armenian experts that the West and Russia do not put pressure on Yerevan, there is quite different evidence.
Between the West and Moscow there is an "undercover" struggle for greater influence in the South Caucasus. Russia, jealously relating to the position of its former satellites from the former Soviet Union, is trying to keep Armenia in its orbit of influence. The U.S. and EU also do not intend to give up their positions. According to the director of the Center for Regional Studies Richard Giragosian, although Armenia is a strategic partner of Russia and here there is a Russian military base, the U.S. is ready to lead a very persistent struggle for Armenia. The U.S. will not be satisfied with only one Georgia. Armen Badalyan, political strategist, thinks that Armenia is the missing piece in the puzzle of the South Caucasus for the West: "If we look at a map of the South Caucasus from a little distance, we will see the following picture: Azerbaijan is very strong in its position – there is oil, gas, and transit routes for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Georgia is fully oriented to the West, where the society has become pro-Western, not to mention the political elites, and the United States can only maintain this trend. As for Armenia, it is ruled by Russia. "
Meanwhile, the choice between the initialling of an Association Agreement with the EU (in Vilnius in November this year as part of the "Eastern Partnership") and the possible entry into the Customs Union has not been made yet. On the one hand the Armenian officials and MPs from the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) show commitment to European values and European integration as a major priority of foreign policy, and on the other hand, the fact that it is impossible to solve military problems in one block, and economic - in another, is mentioned.
Until very recently, the uncertainty in the position of Yerevan did not cause irritation of the two opposing centers. However, each process has its own logic - the beginning, the development and the denouement.
The following chain of events is indicative in this respect. On the eve of the official visit of Serzh Sargsyan to Poland with a difference of one or two days Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and a frequent guest of Armenia, CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha visited Yerevan. According to official reports, the agenda was the discussion of issues included in the program of cooperation between Security Councils of Armenia and Russia, and Bordyuzha was in Yerevan within the forum of political scientists and experts of the CSTO member states. Then, on June 26 Sargsyan went on an official visit to Poland, where there was something that can to some extent be considered a turning point in the process of choosing between the two directions for Armenia.
Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski told his Armenian counterpart about the need to choose, because Armenia cannot conclude Association Agreement with the European Union and at the same time be part of the Customs Union. Komorowski, responding to the statement by Sargsyan that Armenia is building activities not on an "either-or" but on an "both-and" noticed that he understand the desire of Armenia to develop the best possible relations with Russia, but it is impossible to act at the same time on two different economic areas. So the West has shown some irritation about vague position of Armenia and showed Yerevan a "yellow card".
Sargsyan’s return from Warsaw was marked by a few odd statements. For example, the Armenian authorities, who had previously strived for European integration, suddenly began to talk excitedly about the preferences of the CU, when all the hints by Moscow faced the Karabakh issue, and the authorities pointed to the need for Armenia's accession to the Customs Union only with Nagorno-Karabakh. MP from the RPA Aik Babukhanyan said: "Our political field is much closer to Russia than to the European Union."
Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharyan tried somehow to clarify vague position of Armenia, which has never happened before, "Armenia has never had a goal to join the EU. In those documents, around which there are negotiations, there is no European perspective, it is only the harmonization of relations. This is a substantial difference. "
Then a sociological survey suddenly appeared conducted by the so-called cooperative Gallup - GALLUP International Association of Armenia. According to the survey, in Armenia, 61% of respondents positively perceive the CU, 26% are indifferent to the issue, and only 4% are negative about it.
The reality is that the vast majority of the population shows almost no interest in either any possible long-term prospects of joining the EU or the possibility of early prospect of joining the CU because of the dire socio-economic situation, and therefore do not have any idea about these processes.
Nevertheless, the presentation of the results of the survey was accompanied by a commentary by political analyst Sergei Shakaryants known for his overtly pro-Russian position that in case of failure of the Eurasian way, it cannot be ruled out that Russia could "organize" the war in the area of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, given that recently Russia once again used its favorite weapon of pressure - raised the price of gas.
All this suggests that the revolution in the consciousness of the Armenian authorities could have occurred under pressure from Moscow. The West is clearly worried by the tilt towards Moscow. A manifestation of this concern has unfolded six weeks ago due to an organized, systematic discrediting in the media of the representatives of the ruling regime and the Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Sarkisyan.
To be continued
