"European" Armenia

Yuri Kramar, exclusive to VK


Armenia does not stop talking about the future of "European integration." Of course, a full-fledged membership in the European Union is not expected, but it longs to get at least a consolation prize - the Association Agreement and the agreement "on a deep and comprehensive free trade area" with the EU within the framework of the "Eastern Partnership", established in 2008 at the initiative of Poland and Sweden.


That's when it became clear that taking new members to "united Europe" is suspended. However, as the idea of European integration has become the official religion of the present pro-Western elites of some post-Soviet states like Ukraine, for them the aforementioned "ersatz" was invented with associated membership and other inventions of European diplomats not binding upon the European institutions clear commitment to new partners. This made it possible to join the "Eastern Partnership" for the countries which are not located in Europe, including the Caucasus.


Armenia and EU plan to initial these agreements at the Vilnius summit in November. However, the motives that compel the parties to take such actions do not always follow the usual logic.


For example, why does Yerevan need a "deep and comprehensive free trade" with the European Union? Now its share in foreign trade turnover of Armenia is about one-third of the total – and its imports exceed exports by "only" 1.5 times. "Only" - because the whole import of the whole foreign trade exceeds export by 2.7 times. That is, logically, to remedy the situation Armenian goods should be made more competitive in the markets of the CIS, in particular, the Customs Union and the WTO in general. The situation in the European direction looks quite good - in comparison with the rest of the vectors of foreign trade.


In fact, the classic factors of common interest of different states to reduce the duties on their products or to make them more in demand on foreign markets do not play any significant role in this situation. Regarding Armenia, in general, the most useful words were said by satirist Zadornov said in the last years of the Soviet Union: "Our goal is to reach the world market! And to at least buy something…"


Armenia's economy is prohibitively import-oriented. True "export goods" are not scarce extracted minerals but the labor of migrant workers of the Armenian diaspora – 2.4 million people in Russia, given that the number of Armenians living in their homeland is a little more than 3 million. Transfer payments sent home are the determining factors of foreign exchange earnings, which allow the economy to continue to exist with the unthinkable negative balance of foreign trade. However, signing or not signing the agreements with the European Union does not improve or worsen the movement of financial assistance through international payment systems.


Similarly, a few signed papers do not improve the real conditions of international trade in Armenia. To do this, they need not the signatures but the opening of the path of movement of goods. Meanwhile, Yerevan, due its policy towards its neighbors, is under blockade by Azerbaijan and Turkey. The relations with Georgia are also not so good, especially because of the cool relations between Tbilisi and Moscow.


However, pro-Western politicians and intellectuals in Yerevan on the eve of the EU summit in Vilnius are not averse to indulge in sweet dreams. On July 15, the deputy from the ruling Republican Party of Armenia Gagik Minasyan expressed the view that the signing of the association agreement will lead to the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border, as for Europe "closed borders are unacceptable." There is one problem - the MP has forgotten that Turkey is not included into the European Union and it is not obliged to obey the rules. Ankara is almost the only European capital which "dares to have a judgment" on a range of issues, including the most resonant ones – like relations with Iran, the Palestinian Authority in Israel and the situation in Syria. Against this background, counting on the fact that for the sake of the ghost of "Eastern Partnership", the group in which it is not included, Turkey would agree to bury the doctrinal Armenian Turkophobia, expressed in particular in the constant raising of the idea of the "Armenian genocide", and take its haters in the friendly embrace, is not possible.


The Director of the Center for Regional Studies Richard Giragosian expressed an even more fantastic idea on the topic of "the benefits of the association with the EU for Armenia". According to him, if the situation escalates over Nagorno-Karabakh, "Brussels can punish Baku, as no one needs the war in the region". However, political scientist could not even describe the specific mechanisms of this "punishment". If the issue is focused on "punishment" during the hostilities Yerevan provoked, then perhaps it will touch upon notthe main alternative supplier of strategic energy resources to Europe, Azerbaijan but those who blow up in the region for a quarter of a century by their aggressive policy.


However, the weak logic during involving Armenia into the "Eastern Partnership" can also be seen on the European side. Azerbaijan is the major supplier of oil and gas to the European market, which is concerned about the diversification of supply from Russia. Georgia is not less important transit route for these supplies. Armenia can provide nothing but its problems, fundamentally unsolvable under the previous EU foreign policy.


The only explanation of the Armenian-European cooperation is that the European Union want to do something to spite Russia, which, incidentally, is also working with Armenia which is completely uninteresting for it in economic terms in defiance of the West - look, we also have a strategic ally in the Caucasus.


An important role in the Euro-centric attempts made by Yerevan is played by the internal factor. It has long been the custom that in their troubles both individuals and entire nations prefer to blame someone else but not themselves. And Armenia, conducting destructive policies for nearly a quarter-centurytrying to "beat" the neighbor, exceeding its number of population by 3 times, as well as in terms of GDP, drove itself to the brink of economic ruin and abyss. The "arms race”, "expeditionary corps" and "humanitarian corridors" from foreign territories can bring much more economically prosperous states to their knees.

Recognizing this fact in the Armenian society and political circles is like death – political, anyway. So people start searching for an answer to the eternal question: "What to do - and who is to blame?" As for those whom Yerevan has appointed to the role of enemies, Turkey and Azerbaijan, there is no progress with them while maintaining the same policy, and the authorities can only blame the allies. That is, Russia. Well, it should turn the life of Armenia in the earthly paradise, with its oil wealth, shouldn’t it? And unscrupulous Gazprom even increases the price of gas – not too much, just to 270 dollars per thousand cubic meters, that, for example, is twice cheaper than for "brotherly" Ukraine in terms of constant glancing at the West. And the price has been raised only after the official Yerevan too frankly declared its commitment to European principles, which, in the opinion of the European Union, are not compatible with membership in the Customs Union and the hypothetical Eurasian Union. But it still hurts - because the Kremlin could give gas to Yerevan for nothing, and with these "injections" Armenia on all cylinders would rush to the coveted Europe.

One way or another, but after decades of economic hopelessness and the militarization of society, the Russian vector of cooperation in the eyes of many Armenians began to look more and more bleak, and the European "milk and honey" – more enticing. Although it would seem that the global economic crisis, because of which the "poor relatives" in the "common European home", like Greece or Cyprus, are not really in favor, should have alerted the experts among the Armenian "Westerners".


How can they think realistically? The most banal Russophobia appears in the country. A striking example of this was the situation surrounding the arrest of the Armenian driver, who became responsible for an accident near Podolsk. The prosecuted countryman means a "rigged anti-Armenian campaign." It is possible to arrange pickets in front of the Russian embassy and to fill the entire Internet with angry posts.

So in this attempt of Yerevan to get to the European Union, if you look, there is nothing surprising – with the observed touching unity of anti-Russian citizens and the ill-concealed Eurocentrism of the ruling elite. The only thing which those and others are missing is that no change in the vector of foreign policy can fix the position of Armenia placed by Forbes among the worst economies in the world, as long as this Caucasian republic does not give up its other militarist vector of mobilization and establish relations with its neighbors, rather than dwelling with them in a state of either "cold" or even "hot" war.