Yeugeny Krishtalev exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Azerbaijan and his upcoming talks with President Ilham Aliyev are called a historic breakthrough by analysts. And there are all grounds for this. Putin goes to Baku not only to support Ilham Aliyev in the upcoming presidential elections, he goes there to provide big policy, formulate the new strategy of Russia not only toward Azerbaijan, but toward the region of the Big Caucasus and Caspian region as a whole. President Aliyev was chosen as the main partner whom Russian trusts and confirms the course on strategic partnership.
Like in 2001 when Putin visited Azerbaijan for the first time, the delegation of the Russian government includes the head of the state, the foreign minister, the defense minister, the minister of transport, and the minister of energy. Moreover, the Russian Caspian fleet called at the Baku bay on a friendly visit. It seems to be not an announced working visit, but a state visit. However, big politics is provided not in ceremonies. Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev, as well as members of the delegations, will have more time to speak about important affairs.
The new Russian strategy will possible look the following way: Moscow rejects the former policy of resistance to so-called “by-passing” projects of energy corridors, and will join their construction and exploitation, getting new benefits and geopolitical advantages.
It should be noted that despite discussions in both Russia and Azerbaijan on diversification of economy, today the energy segment remains the main for both countries. The July visit by the head of the major Russian oil-and-gas company Rosneft, Igor Sechin, to Baku was a preface to shifting relations between Moscow and Baku to serious trade relations. Today Russia proposes Azerbaijan strategic partnership in economy. In recent years Azerbaijan has significantly improved its economic opportunities and presents great interest as an investor and a partner for joint projects abroad.
For instance, in the sphere of energy, new Azeri-Russian projects are possible in the context of involving the Azerbaijani side into work at the Russian market. The interest is intensively shown by Baku. For example, Azerbaijani investments inflow to the Russian North Caucasus, SOFAZ purchases property in Moscow. In 2013 the SOCAR office was registered in Russia – SOCAR Russia. The office intends to work actively in oil-and-gas and transport projects in Russia.
Russian supports such an interest of Azerbaijan in investing into Russian economy as an element of building long-term and tight economic relations between the two countries, building a new foundation of the relations, a shift from common trade of gas and oil to serious joint projects in Russia and in third countries, first of all, Turkey. It is well-known that Azeri investment into Turkish economy will reach $20 billion by 2020. Similar financial flows can come to Russia, if Azeri initiatives are to be supported.
The Russian side got a proposal to reorient the Russian oil export to Azerbaijan through infrastructure built by SOCAR in Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. Azerbaijan is ready to offer beneficial rates on transportation of cargos, which will enable Russian companies to diversify transit and get more benefits in trade at the Black Sea markets.
SOCAR’s alliance with Rosneft and intensive cooperation with Gazprom have already been supported by Baku, which stresses high interest of the Azeri authorities in cooperation with Russia and absence of desire to have conflict situations with Moscow. The choice of TAP instead of Nabucco for Azeri gas export to Europe should be considered as an intended shift from competition with Russia, a concession for maintaining good relations with Russian partners/ Baku treats responsibly the strategic relations with Moscow.
The Big Caucasus and the Caspian Region will soon witness a radical turn of the Russian policy. Considering significance of economy, it will definitely reflect in politics. It is expected that in Azerbaijan Russian officials, first of all President Putin, will make statements of the most urgent and relevant issue for the whole Azeri nation – settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Baku is sure that Russia still has opportunities to press on Armenia for making it withdraw from occupied territories around Nagorno-Karabakh and begin the settlement of the conflict.
