Victoria Panfilova, columnist for "NG", exclusively to VK
Georgia has entered a crucial stage of the presidential campaign; the elections will be held on October 27. The CEC has already completed the registration of applicants, and the final list of the candidates for presidency received a more decent view than before –it was frankly ludicrous, and half of the candidates were known, most likely, only in related circles. 23 people - nominees from action groups and political parties – will participate in the elections now
Probably for small Georgia with its voting population not exceeding 4 million people this is a lot. But, apparently , such a circumstance is not essential – there are three real candidates to win: the protege of the ruling "Georgian Dream“ Georgi Margvelashvili and two ex-parliament speakers - David Bakradze from the former ruling party of United National Movement ( UNM ) and Nino Burjanadze from her own organization "Democratic Movement - United Georgia ". With a stricter approach to the issue, there are two contenders . Numerous opinion polls show a solid third place of David Bakradze, that's probably natural: the opponents of President Mikheil Saakashvili were consolidated in the recent parliamentary elections not to let a 'national 'candidate become president a year later. For the former ruling party it can already be considered an achievement that it has not collapsed and kept a sufficiently clear structure.
Some experts predicted a tough fight in the elections in two rounds, and someone - even Burjanadze’s victory. This point of view is explained by the fact that the "dreamers" managed to disappoint the society and failed to meet a number of promises, in particular, failed to completely remove the UNM . Moreover, they even found a common ground with the former authorities, and Georgia eventually got what she did not want - cohabitation, i. e. quite a rational co-existence of political opponents. And Burjanadze promises to put an end to all this political hypocrisy, to put Saakashvili on trial, if it appears that he deserves it, to improve relations with Russia, and she says that she knows the recipe to restore the territorial integrity. This set is enough to be president for a third time. And not an "acting" president but a real one. Of course, this judgment is logical. But there are a few nuances.
For example, as recently as on Friday Burjanadze’s unplanned meeting with refugees from Abkhazia near the Memorial to the people fallen for the territorial integrity of Georgia was marked by an incident: she was offended, and her longer stays in power were remembered, when she, like the other leaders of the National Movement, had no qualms of conscience about the outrages perpetrated in the country. This is known not just to a group of refugees in conflict but to the whole country . Everybody remembers that Burjanadze was part of the leadership of "Rose Revolution", and was silent when Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania was killed (the investigation is not completed yet), wrote pleasing laws for Saakashvili, justified the massacre of the opposition on November 7, 2007... and went out of power only when she finally realized that Saakashvili had turned her into a decorative piece. The past hangs over Burjanadze like a sword of Damocles, heavily curtailing the chances of winning. In addition, she, however, like the other candidates, does not bother itself with explanations of how she is going to implement her promises.
By the way, with the “Georgian Dream” before the parliamentary elections in the electoral perception everything was simple and clear: its leader Bidzina Ivanishvili is a billionaire , and he has promised to improve the life, then , so, so be it – he will give a couple of his billions for universal happiness . And Burjanadze have to answer the questions about the restoration of justice: how will the president limited in his rights under the new Constitution be able to influence the prosecutor's office and the courts? How will she be able to promote laws necessary for the restoration of justice, if a third of seats in parliament are the "nationals", and the rest are the "dreamers"? In this case, the holding of early parliamentary elections is not seen as possible, unless there is something out of the ordinary.
But even without all of it , there is another factor or scenario. The UNM, the formal leader of which is Saakashvili, is fighting for survival in despair. The "nationals" know well: if they let Burjanadze go ahead, whose main slogan is the actual decimation of former associates, this does not mean anything good for them. A large part of the electorate craves their blood, and the intensity of emotions is reduced by the calls for reconciliation on the part of the Catholicos Patriarch Ilia II or Ivanishvili..
The last chance for the UNM is to remain a political force and to "keep out" of the past in which they completely dominated, seized economic assets, rearranged property, repressed objectionable people, initiated a military adventure and legally lost a fifth of their territory. They, not taking into account several arrests, including several prominent persons, are not responsible for all this . Therefore, it is possible that, resigned to the inevitability of the defeat of their candidate Bakradze, using their resources, including the part of the electorate remaining loyal to them, they will help the GD and its candidate Margvelashvili, bargaining for themselves some space in return for safe social and political existence. Therefore, the ultimate victory of Georgi Margvelashvili appears far more probable than the success of his opponents.
The electoral passions, meanwhile, set off the more pressing issue for modern-day Georgia . Ivanishvili is determined to leave the political arena almost the day after the winner of the presidential election will be announced. Who will be the prime minister? According to the Constitution of Georgia, the office of prime minister is the center of power. None of the political forces of the country have the resources to amend the Constitution, regardless of who wins the presidential election. The question of the actual first person of Georgia remains open.
