Russia-Iran: "cautious partnership" comes to an end

By Vestnik Kavkaza

October 15-16 in Geneva another round of talks between representatives of Iran and the "group of six" of international mediators to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue (Russia, USA, UK, France, China and Germany) will start. So far the U.S. is not going to impose more sanctions against Iran, despite the intention of the Iranian leadership to negotiate on its nuclear program, and hopes that Tehran will present a concrete plan of action to resolve the nuclear issue at the talks in Geneva.

U.S. President Barack Obama believes that the declared readiness of the new leadership of Iran to resolve the crisis over Tehran's nuclear program must be supported by deeds. This was his conclusion after a telephone conversation with President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, which became the first pin of the American and Iranian leaders since 1979.

Director of the Center for Contemporary Iranian Studies Rajab Safarov and director of the Center for Public Policy Research Vladimir Yevseyev commented on the prospects for US- Iranian and Russian- Iranian relations.

Referring to the leading political scientists and Iranian politicians, Rajab Safarov said that “in New York there were more than 60 contacts at a very high level. And every single one expressed their strong interest and desire to improve relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. Of course, certain US and Israeli services, and those of the enemies of Iran, are aware of such a great interest in the new leadership of Iran. It undermines the whole concept of their behavior towards Iran”.

Meanwhile, according to Safarov, “even in Iran not everybody is ready for such an outcome and for such a serious movement and deep undertaking by Hassan Rouhani. Before they left for New York, the IRGC leadership, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the most militant and mobilized structure, that is ready to gather a million people under arms in a day, and which is in constant combat readiness, warned Hassan Rouhani that he shouldn’t go too far in his relations with the West, especially with the USA”.

Safarov thinks that “the Iranian people are tired of the sanctions, tired of this situation and are very interested in normal relations with every country in the world. Moreover, I believe that the actions of the current government actually force many states of the world to change their behavior”.

Answering the question what will happen to Russia as a result of the US-Iranian rapprochement, Safarov said: “Many believe that Iran cannot be relied upon, that Iran has always been a pro-western state and that current Russian-Iranian relations are dictated by the fact that Iran is in need of these relations with Russia, and once the problems between Iran and the West are resolved, Iran would leave Russia. One factor is the Islamic state, another factor is the pro-Western orientation of the technocrats and the possibility for quick innovation and the financial involvement of the West in the country's economy. There is some truth in this. But this is an argument or reasoning of Russia's enemies, the enemies of Russian-Iranian cooperation and relations. I want to say the most important thing. Under no conditions or circumstances will the Islamic Republic of Iran recognize the State of Israel. And if this is the case, the US acts in defense of their partner in the Middle East, the State of Israel. And with such an attitude, a degree of mistrust and confrontation will always remain between the U.S. and Iran”.

According to him, “with the rehabilitation of relations with Iran, there will be new space to enhance trade and economic, scientific and technical contacts between Russia and Iran, since Russia would no longer be under the pressure which is now being applied through the banking sector, shareholders and participation in the capital of Russian companies, and direct dictation to the Russian economy not to have anything to do with Iran. If these restrictions are lifted, and the renewal of bilateral relations are lifted, it will inevitably lead to the intensification of trade and economic, scientific and technical contacts between Russia and Iran. At the moment turnover amounts to 2 billion dollars, and Russia loses at least a billion dollars annually because of adherence to the sanctions. That's a billion in lost profits that Russia could receive annually. This is only because of these sanctions. So I think that both Russia and the world in general should expect very good times, and in the near future we will witness very interesting and positive developments”.

In turn, Vladimir Yevseyev finds it important that for the first time in 34 years a meeting between the Minister of Foreign Affairs Zarif and the Secretary of State Kerry took place: “It was this meeting, as well as quite a successful meeting of the "six", that helped create the foundation for the possibility of a phone call. There was very thorough preparatory work. If you look at the speech of Hassan Rouhani to the UN General Assembly you will find it extremely balanced. I was amazed at how carefully each word was chosen. And from this point of view, I think many can learn how to speak publicly. Although as a representative of Russia, I was not very pleased with the fact that Russia was never mentioned, but in general only the US was mentioned”. 

According to Yevseyev, the US actually is interested in normalizing relations with Iran: “Barack Obama has proclaimed the doctrine of transfer of the center of gravity to the Asia-Pacific region. I can assure you that the United States can do this only if they reduce their military presence in the Persian Gulf. There are no other options. Only if they reduce it, because their resources are limited. But can the United States reconsider their relations with Saudi Arabia? In theory - yes, in practice - no. Because the contracts are signed for a very long time, and there is lot of money involved, who will give up on this? Therefore, there will be no break-up in the near future with either Saudi Arabia or Qatar, or with Israel. This factor will affect and in many ways will block the development of relations with Iran. This is an objective condition. From this point of view, the process of restoring relations between Iran and the United States will proceed with difficulties”.

Yevseyev believes that Russia should reconsider its attitude towards Iran: “Past hopes that Russia could be a mediator between Iran and the West are not necessary any more. Iran is ready to enter into direct relations and intermediaries are no longer needed. Iran needs investment and technology. It can get them from the West or China, for example. So, the agenda according to which Iran could work previously has be now been exhausted. It is necessary to propose a new agenda. Objectively speaking, lately we have been working only in two sectors, in the nuclear sphere and in the sphere of military-technical cooperation, which in Iran is seen as a part of economic cooperation. This, I believe, is not enough. Everything else that Russia was doing was basically an imitation. If we continue to operate on the old premises, in this case, we are gradually going to lose Iran. Additional problems will arise because the agenda has been exhausted”.

Answering the question whether Russia will be able to offer Iran a new agenda, Yevseyev said: “It is difficult. In fact, I do not believe that Russia is ready, but it should be done. Because otherwise it will be hard for Russia to position itself as a really powerful state in the region. Therefore, I support the development of Russian-Iranian relations, and I think that if we are able to offer Iran a new agenda based on President Hassan Rouhani and the changes that have taken place recently and which await us in the near future, in this case, Russia can strengthen its relationship with Iran. And then we will be able to get away from the watchful partnership, which was typical of President Ahmadinejad's rule. We can move to a normal partnership, but only if there is a new agenda”.