Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
During the last meeting between Premier Bidzina Ivanishvili and editors of major periodicals, the head of the government suddenly stated that he would recommend his candidate Georgy Margvelashvili not to take part in the second round of the presidential elections, if he failed to win in the first round on October 27th. “Georgy is an independent person. I can only recommend, but if I were him, I wouldn’t take part in the second round,” the Premier said, explaining that if Margvelashvili fails to gain more than 50% votes, it “would mean mistrust of voters.”
Such a non-European attitude to the elections surprised many experts. In the countries with the stable democratic system a president who is elected in the second round is as legitimate as a president who gains 60% of the vote in the very first voting day. However, it seems Ivanishvili doesn’t think so. At the same time, he stated that he would leave politics anyway, notwithstanding the fact who would be the next president. “If Margvelashvili gains less than 60%, I will be less enthusiastic,” the Premier said.
Enthusiastic about what? Probably he meant the great plan on investment into the country’s economy - $6 billion; Ivanishvili hinted at this at the presentation of the Co-Investment Fund. It is difficult to interpret the statement on “less enthusiasm” in case of “more than 50% and less than 60%” in a different way.
Meanwhile, the head of the government stated that if the candidate from President’s party United National Movement, the former speaker of the parliament, David Bakradze, won the elections, “he would appoint Mikhail Saakashvili to the position of Premier at once, and you all would have joyful life!” Of course such a prospect should threaten those who see Saakashvili’s return as a nightmare.
Georgy Margvelashvili immediately supported the leader of the ruling coalition: “If a miracle happened and I failed to win in the first round, I don’t see the point in the continuation of my political career.”
In fact all these statements seem odd only at the first sight. The head of the sociological service Gorbi, Merab Pachulia, told Vestnik Kavkaza that “they encourage people to vote.” According to all public opinion polls, the main threat to the victory of the ruling coalition’s candidate in the first round is “a lazy voter.” Absolute majority is loyal to Bidzina Ivanishvili and is ready to vote for his candidate, but people can simply not bother to go to voting stations (moreover, it will be bad weather in Tbilisi on Sunday); as the result Margvelashvili can get less than 50%, even though he would sidestep his rivals David Bakradze and Nino Burdzhanadze.
It means Ivanishvili and his team use shock therapy. At the same time, political scientist Georgy Nordia told Vestnik Kavkaza that he thought the position by Ivanishvili was non-democratic: “It really a very strange statement. For instance, the candidate from Georgian Dream got 48% or 49% votes. Can the result be considered as a failure? For some extend it reflects the authoritarian style of Ivanishvili, his striving for simplification: everything or nothing. Even if Margvelashvili fails to win in the first round, but gains more votes than other candidates, the results of the elections will mean that he is the most popular candidate. For instance, he withdraws from the competition. In the second round voters would have to choose between less popular Bakradze and Burdzhanadze. The conspiracy theory appears, i.e. an idea that Ivanishvili wants pro-Russian Burdzhanadze to win and hopes that she will be the president. However, I don’t support the conspiracy theory.”
Commenting on the election situation in general, Georgy Nodia said: “It is rather calm, especially in comparison with the last year. The reason is clear: the bet is smaller. No matter who would be the president, the person wouldn’t become an important figure as the new Constitution begins its operation right after the elections, and presidential functions become strictly limited. It is understandable not by politicians only, but also by voters.”
