By Victoria Panfilova, an NG commentator, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The long-awaited talks of Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan have happened in Vienna. The Nagorno-Karabakh peace process at that stage was so hopeless that readiness for a new meeting was the biggest hope of all experts. Aliyev and Sargsyan announced a readiness to intensify contacts. Co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group mediating in the process said that they wanted to boost the dialogue.
The negotiations between the Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders were behind closed doors. The subjects of their talks remain a mystery. Information will be published in doses later. The situation around Nagorno-Karabakh is complicated. The sides are on contrary positions and rapprochement fails. There is a high level of distrust between the Azerbaijani and Armenian societies. It would be unwise to start or renew (as in the 1990s) the process selectively. Meetings of experts, political analysts and intellectuals have little practical value in resolving the conflict.
Azerbaijan insists that words and declarations should finally gain a practical value. In other words, Armenia must leave Azerbaijani districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and let the refugees return. This is the first step Baku insists on.
The plan of Azerbaijan is the least thing Armenia would want to realize. It is fine with returning Azerbaijan control over five out of seven districts of the security belt around Nagorno-Karabakh. The two other districts are self-proclaimed republics of special strategic value. The Lachin District helps maintain transportation links with Armenia. The Kalbajar District is the water source of Karabakh. Handing over the districts to Azerbaijan would make the situation more risky for Armenia.
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu proposed Armenia start the transfer of the districts to Azerbaijan in exchange for an opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, closed for the sake of solidarity between Ankara and Baku. Yerevan reminded about the differentiation of Armenian-Turkish and Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. So what is the point in Aliyev and Sargsyan’s readiness to intensify the dialogue if they refuse to leave their positions?
The sides are negotiating cease-fire on the line of contact and an agreement to move away snipers, sabotage groups and other units. They have no practical value at the contact line in any aspect. They have no impact on the alignment of forces. Their actions cause losses on both sides of the line. This only provokes exasperation, hatred and hunger for revenge. It will hardly destabilize the situation, should any one really want to. Besides, high-ranking officials declare peaceful intentions, so disrupting the situation of no interest to either side. And, of course, exchange of prisoners.
Armenia is starting to transfer control over at least one, strategically least valuable, district to Azerbaijan. In return, Azerbaijan agrees to turn a blind eye on exploitation of the Stepanakert Airport. Practically, idleness of the airport is very pointless. Azerbaijan clearly understands that people willing to visit Karabakh do it anyway. However, seeing a ready, yet non-operating, airport gives nothing but a sense of sorrow to people entering the self-proclaimed republic. Thus, it is a blow to the image of Azerbaijan on the international arena. Should any attempts to use non-civil transportation at the airport be made, they would be prevented by closing it down again. Control is not hard to achieve. Space satellites can even see car plates, not to mention jets. There might be other means of control.
Both sides are concerned about the condition of one of the local water reservoirs. There are no visible reasons for them to neglect cooperation in solving that problem.
