Russia-Transcaucasia: first results of the year

By Vestnik Kavkaza

By 2014, the South Caucasus countries will have achieved rather good results. The leading scientist of the Institute of World Economics and International Affairs of the RAS, Dina Malysheva, thinks that from the economic point of view, the countries of the region managed to avoid major crises. The World Bank predicts an economic growth (up to 5%) in Azerbaijan in 2014, which will be supported by high oil prices and boosted (by 18.5%) direct foreign investments. Azerbaijan manages to restrain inflation due to the oil and gas sector. According to forecasts, Armenia will face an economic growth slowdown (down to 5%), but due to careful tax and monetary policy Yerevan may avoid a serious economic crisis. There are no optimistic predictions for the Georgian economy, though. A decrease in consumer demand continues in the context of reducing economic activeness in general; the living standards are decreasing, while the unemployment rate is growing.

The head of the State Duma Committee for International Assafirs, Alexei Pushkov, told Vestnik Kavkaza that Russia has serious achievements in the South Caucasian direction.

“Relations with Azerbaijan stabilized and stepped into a very good level. Vladimir Putin visited Baku in the summer. Certain disputes which occurred between Russia and Azerbaijan after the shutdown of the Qabala radar station were settled. Azerbaijan had no plans to sign the association agreement with the EU, as it considers the association unprofitable. I think it creates opportunities for integration between Russia and Azerbaijan – if not now, than in the future. We respect independent foreign policy of the country; and I think Azerbaijan understands that its independence as a small country which situates between Turkey, Iran, and American influence depends on Russia in a large extent. Russia can be considered as a country on which Azerbaijan can rely on in its independent foreign political course,” Pushkov thinks.

Prospects of Russian-Georgian relations are not optimistic. “Saakshvili left the presidential position, and now Georgia has a new government which is much less anti-Russian than the previous government. But I don’t think that today we can speak about revival of diplomatic relations, as the Georgian side sets unacceptable demands to Russia – to reject recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. However, certain progress in relations is possible, especially at the level of human contacts and export-import operations. So, I think it will be easier to work with the current reasonable government of Georgia than with the previous one which was deep anti-Russian and focused on hatred which Saakashvili demonstrated toward Russia,” Pushkov thinks.

As for Armenia, according to him, Yerevan “made a right step, deciding not to associate with the EU, not to be dependent on the EU and move toward the Customs Union. I think it is a crucial step. The step determined the decision by Ukraine, I think, and European hysteria which we can see today. Actually Aremnia’s decision was a significant strike on the Eastern Partnership program. If the EU considered the program as cooperation, it would be one thing. But they consider it as a plan of capturing these countries in their zone of influence. Thus, they reacted sharply.

For the Customs Union, Armenia will be an important achievement. It will enable it to extend its circle of participants of the organization and provide better prospects for the Eurasian Union by 2015.”