Victoria Panfilova, commentator for Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have stepped into a backrush period, reaching unstable conditions. Another meeting between the deputy foreign minister of Russia, Georgiy Karasin, and the special envoy of Georgia for improvement of relations with Russia, Zurab Abashidze, has been postponed for an indefinite term. According to official information, this is due to the events in Ukraine.
A Tbilisi performance by Sergei Bezrukov, who recently successfully performed in the Georgian capital, was cancelled by the Chamber of Culture of Georgia. Georgian MP, member of the Georgian Dream Coalition Tina Khidasheli, demanded to use all possible sanctions required by the charter of the Council of Europe against Russia.
The Georgian State Minister for European Integration, Alexiy Petriashvili, stated that US Secretary of State John Kerry would visit Georgia by the end of spring. The Russian military has renewed construction of simple engineering constructions on the border with Georgia in South Ossetia.
These are Russian-Georgian events not for a week, but for a day. All of them are connected with the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the events in Crimea, directly or indirectly.
There is nothing bad in postponing the next meeting between Abashidze and Karasin. Restoration of a regular airline service can wait. Nothing special will happen, as charter aircrafts are flying. Another thing is that restoration of the regular airline service and simplification or cancellation of the visa regime by Russia for Georgian citizens are the only important issues which could be discussed by the diplomats. All other matters touch on restoration of Georgian-Russian relations to the full extent. Here the positions of the sides are opposed. They set mutually-exclusive preconditions: Moscow demands that Georgia has to deal with reality, i.e. give up Abkhazia and South Ossetia; Tbilisi insists on Russia’s rejection of its recognition of independence of the former Georgian autonomies. Nobody plans to yield. The process is coming to a deadlock.
No surprise then that Tina Khidasheli demands the launching of sanctions against Russia due to its activity in Ukraine. Launching of the sanctions doesn’t depend on the position of the Georgian MP. Such decisions are made by other people with a different status and political weight. The personal attitude of the MP from the Republican Party toward Moscow is well known. This is the most pro-Western wing of Georgian Dream. It is so pro-Western that local observers sometimes see no difference between the Republican Party and the former ruling party, the United National Movement.
An expert on Russian-Georgian relations, Kote Chikviladze, commented on the events and blamed the Georgian side: “The recent events confirm that there is no difference between the former and the current authorities.” According to the expert, disputes between them have a personal character, in key issues there are no disputes. The new authorities continued the course of the “nationals”, i.e. confrontation with Russia and integration with NATO. “The policy hasn’t brought anything positive for Georgia and it won’t,” Chikviladze told Vestnik Kavkaza.
The fact that Georgia has no intention of changing the foreign political course was well known even under Bidzina Ivanishvili who replaced Mikhail Saakashvili in the political scene; Moscow didn’t want to talk to Georgia under Saakashvili. Integration into Western structures is still a priority for Tbilisi.
There is a logical question: is Georgia ready to deny the reconstruction of its territorial integrity and deal with the loss of Abkhazia and South Ossetia in favor of joining NATO? It is well-known that the Alliance avoids accepting new members with such problems, as it doesn’t want to be involved in such conflicts.
Vakhtang Maisaia, a military expert, told Vestnik Kavkaza: “Receiving the NATO Membership Action Plan is not a guarantee that a country will join NATO. Yes, the MAP is the last stage before membership in the Alliance, but it includes a five-stage integration model. To fulfil the MAP, a country which applies for NATO membership should coordinate its political course with NATO, meet economic standards, information security and security in general, match the Alliance’s level in military construction and military policy, conduct juridical harmonization, i.e. build its internal and foreign legal system according to NATO legislation.” According to Maisaia, Georgia will probably get the MAP in Wales “thanks to” the Ukrainian crisis.
The expert recalled: “For example, Macedonia was absolutely ready for membership in the alliance, but suddenly Greece banned it, as the name of the country is similar to a Greek historical province. And even though Macedonia changed its name somehow, the question on its accession to NATO was postponed for an indefinite term.” Maisaia agreed that Georgia’s prospects are much dimmer, considering the Abkhaz and South Ossetian factors. It should be noted that the USA’s desire only is not enough to overcome probable obstacles. Moreover, such countries as Germany and France have recently stood against the accession of Georgia to NATO. There are no clear reasons for changing the position of Berlin and Paris, despite the Ukrainian crisis. They don’t want to be involved in a confrontation with Moscow because of Georgian territorial problems. It would be sad if Tbilisi makes this mistake again.
