Kiev prepares for war

By Vestnik Kavkaza

The interim president of Ukraine, Alexander Turchinov, thinks that Russia’s activity in Crimea won’t lead to a loss of the peninsula by Ukraine. Turchinov stated that “Russia has focused a great amount of troops on our border, and our state is threatened by a war. The parliament decides to increase military expenditures.” Turchinov urges the Ukrainians “to unite in the face of a possible aggression” and “adhere to the general line against the aggressor.”

Russia is defending its national interests not from Ukraine, but from the USA, according to experts. “Washington’s interests fundamentally contradict Russian ones,” the Director General of the Russian Institute for Foreign Policy Studies and Initiatives, Veronika Krasheninnikova, thinks. “Even though Ukraine or the Caucasus are in ten thousand miles from the USA, these states are declared to be a territory of strategic interests of the USA. The current events were directed against independent Ukraine, against Russia, against integration processes in the post-Soviet space.”

According to Krasheninnikova, the USA will continue the policy: “We will see the full spectrum from political means to terrorist attacks to make Ukraine stay with the West. The approach is aimed at Russia, it is being tested. Mechanisms of shifting a similar situation to Russian territory are being discussed. The current methodology differs from color revolutions of 2003-2005 by presence of a forceful radical element. And some elements of Arab spring are present in Ukraine as well. While previous overthrows were peaceful, now it is internecine. The West, headed by the USA, supports both the liberal part and ultra-right-wing Nazi part; each of them is playing their own roles. Maidan began with peaceful protests of pro-Western opposition. When it didn’t work, militants were involved. The scenario was implemented in the post-Soviet space for the first time.”

Krasheninnikova reminded that “Western Ukraine is the south border of Belarus. The West has been dreaming about changing the regime of Lukashenko for a long time, and now there are favorable conditions for this. As the activity will be directed against the Customs Union, we can expect similar attempts against Kazakhstan. Moreover, Armenia decided to sign and has already signed the agreement on accession to the CU; however, the agreement must be ratified by the Armenian parliament. There is big probability that some activities in Armenia will be organized over the ratification.”

“When President Putin decided to run for president for the third time and stated that his main foreign political program is establishing of Eurasian Union, Obama’s administration stated that its final goal is to prevent Russia’s activity in all directions, prevent establishing of the Eurasian Union,” Alexei Fenenko, senior scientist of the Institute of International Security Problems of the RAS, recalls. “The foundation of the crisis was laid in autumn 2011. We have seen attempts to prevent it during two years of Putin’s new term, including attempts to prevent Russian-Uzbek negotiations, attempts to influence Azerbaijan, while Ukraine became a general scenario.”

According to Fenenko, “the only salvation for Ukraine was a neutral status of nonalignment policy and rejection of any sharp swing to this or that side. Too different nations, too different ethnic groups, too different cultures are united in Ukraine… As Crimea becomes a constituent of the Russian Federation, there is only one theoretical salvation for Ukraine – quick federalization. Ukraine will unlikely exist as a unitary state. All ethnic minorities, all ethnic borderlands want the only thing – guarantees from Kiev. Thus, theoretically Ukraine could move toward an enlarged federation which includes: southeast regions (the Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk regions and probably Kherson region), Central Ukraine, and the Transcarpathian region. Such Ukraine could be more balanced and more guaranteed by international agreements. If it doesn’t happen, a scenario of an uncontrollable dissolution of Ukraine will begin.”