By Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Russia’s annexation of Crimea may become the critical moment in relations with the West. The German mass media are paying close attention to developments around the breakaway republic. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung has published an article entitled “Putin should prepare for a long Ice Age period.” Journalist Nicolas Busse, attending the nuclear security summit in The Hague, supposes that harsher economic sanctions of the West against Moscow will not be a problem for Moscow as long as it does not attempt to take over the continental lands of Ukraine. “The G7 state leaders have discussed further actions of Russia in The Hague. US Secretary of State John Kerry has had a meeting Russian Chief Diplomat Sergey Lavrov, at which Lavrov assured Kerry that Russia was not planning to annex other territories of Ukraine. But the Russian diplomat demanded the international community to contribute to the fight against extremists in Ukraine. G7 members are skeptical about the Russian foreign minister’s statement because Putin’s actions can no longer be predicted. "Maybe he wants to wait until Ukraine breaks apart by itself,” says Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Another article called “Russia expects a capital outflow of $70 billion” by Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that the Russian government is preparing to lose Western capital throughout the first quarter of 2014. A similar article “Who's who among German investors in Russia” gives a clear list of German companies operating in Russia. The business interests of such concerns as Volkswagen (revenue of 6.5 billion euros), Daimler (2.34 billion euros), BMW (1.984 billion euros), e.ON (1.879 billion euros), Siemens (1.6 billion euros), BASF (1.3 billion euros), Adidas (1.095 billion euros), Henkel (1.08 billion euros) would be hit if the German government decided to impose economic sanctions against Russia. This is why, according to the paper, the German position is so indecisive in discussions of sanctions against Russia. Die Welt refers to Birgit Hansl, an expert of the World Bank specializing in Russia. Even if Western investors calm down, Russia will still suffer from a capital loss of $85 billion. Escalation may bring the figure to even $150 billion, Hansl assures. According to Die Welt, the World Bank expects Russian GDP to drop by 1.8% this year if the current political conjuncture stays the same. Spiegel Online columnist Jakob Augstein states in one of his studies of the Crimean crisis that the confrontational policy of Angela Merkel towards Russia hits German interests. “For Putin, on the other hand, the confrontational course serves as a justification: a demonstration of force instead of efforts to modernize is an easier path. The Kremlin master is popular in Russia as never before,” notes Augstein. “The Crimean crisis has demonstrated: Putin is turning away from the West. “Russians have been showing saintly patience for years,” a socialist member of the European Parliament monitoring Russia said in 2012. The EU would not even establish a visa-free regime for Russia, not to mention Putin’s big plans to form a free trade zone from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans,” writes the Spiegel columnist.
The author analyzes the reasons for the problematic image of Russia: "Compared to Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin now gives the impression of the school cockerel, because his choice of instruments is much smaller. When Russians get involved in global politics they have only three instruments in their arsenal: gas, weapons and the permanent place on the UN Security Council."
"Google and Apple don't shape the world according to Russian norms. The NSA does not help Putin to control and form consciousness across the world, and Hollywood does not promote the values of Russian culture. The last Russian project that impressed the world was the Mir Space station - but it has long ago fallen from the sky," writes Augstein. Nevertheless, as the author notes, according to recent surveys more than half of the German population views the Russian actions in Crimea with understanding.
The popular tabloid Bild asked the Bundestag deputies to comment on the scandalous audio recording in which former Ukrainian prime-minister Yulia Timoshenko speaks about Russia in an insulting manner and fantasizes about taking physical revenge on Russian president Vladimir Putin. A deputy from the ruling CDU\CSU party and the party speaker on foreign affairs, Philipp Missfelder, said in an interview that "the statements of Timoshenko demonstrate the necessity of relying on those political forces in Ukraine that strive for peace and don't promote hatred." In the words of Missfelder, such verbal attacks are unacceptable. His colleague from the SPD, Niels Annen, told Bild that he considers the words of Timoshenko to be provocative and irresponsible. "They give grounds for concerns that the government of Timoshenko could opt for a military resolution of the conflict."
