Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The acutest question for Armenia today is the appointment of the new PM and the composition of the government. The name of the new head of the government is to be announced on April 13-14. According to the article 55 of the Constitution, the President appoints the new Prime Minister within 10 days after the dismissal of the government, while the Cabinet should be composed within 20 days after the appointment of the PM.
The Armenian mass media list various candidates: the head of the presidential administration Vigen Sarkisyan, the speaker of the parliament Ovik Abramyan, the ambassador of Armenia to the UK Armen Sarkisyan, the former mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan who take a top position in Gazprom at the moment, his namesake the former head of the presidential administration, the very unpopular mayor of the capital Taron Margaryan, and Robert Kocharyan.
Talk about Kocharyan’s return to power has never stopped. The official propaganda took a skeleton of the former president from its “political closet” for the citizens prefer softer Serge Sargsyan. In the reality Kocharyan’s option is unacceptable, as his appointment could stir up the society; and the leadership doesn’t need this, regarding existing problems. Moreover, the second president has no foreign support. Ovik Abramyan is unlikely to be appointed – the cunning flexible politician won’t take the PM position in such a difficult period. Appointments of “Muscovite” Karen Karapetyan and “London resident” Armen Sarkisyan depend on foreign factors.
The vice chairman of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, Armen Ashotyan, added intrigue to the discussion of the new PM: “The RPA is a backbone of the political life and it can afford appointment of a PM not from the RPA.”
Appointment of the Premier and composing the new government will take place in the context of sacrificing one of the most important figures on the political chessboard. The opposition is sure that dismissal of the Prime Minister took place under pressure of the opposition “four”, the civil initiative of “I am against” and support of the majority of the population. According to the opposition MP from the Armenian National Congress, Lyudmila Sarkisyan, the resignation of the Premier is only a first stage in the change of power.
When the new Premier is announced, we could predict further developments. The first scenario is that an intermediate candidate is appointed to the Premier’s position; it will predetermine further development of the peaceful change of power and providing radical reforms.
The second scenario is that the PM’s position is taken by a person who will later become the president. Such a candidate is the ambassador of Armenia to London Armen Sarkisyan.
However, in the reality of modern Armenia, when the people’s movement is growing and the government is running out resources for suppression protests, the first scenario seems to be more real.
The foreign factor plays a very important role, regarding the events happening in the post-Soviet space. The level of competition between Russia and the West is high in Armenia. Moscow has been sure that everything is under control in Armenia, and now it begins to reconsider the situation. The West did a lot to destroy Russian influence in Armenia. For example, Tigran Sarkisyan was an unacceptable person for Russia. Probably, Moscow tries to eliminate the pro-Western system and establish a more loyal system in Armenia.
