Ukrainian crisis and Moscow’s gas blackmail– 2

Yuri Kramar, Kiev. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

Yesterday, the Turkish Premier Erdogan called Vladimir Putin. They discussed cooperation in the sphere of energy and the merger of Crimea into Russia, including the Crimean Tatar community.

Obviously, a possible instrument of Washington’s “gas strike” at Russia can be Turkey. Last year it bought 27 billion cubic meters of Russian gas and became the second importer after Germany. Ankara’s geopolitical rejection of Russian gas supplies could seriously hurt Moscow.

The plan is focused on the Crimean Tatar factor. 400,000 representatives of the ethnic group live in Crimea, which is now Russian. Ankara considers them “a brotherly nation” which needs protection. After the Crimean referendum, the former head of the Crimean Tatar parliament, Mustafa Jemilev, began to organize Ankara’s strict reaction. He even hinted on some possible measures by the Turkish government: shutting Black Sea straits for Russian ships. However, in a few days Jemilev expressed disappointment. He said that the Turkish government too appreciated economic contacts with Russia and didn’t want to “protect interests of the Crimean Tatars.”

It is true that annual Russian-Turkish turnover surpasses $30 billion. Russia’s positive share is explained by exported gas. As for Turkey, 100 thousand Turkish workers and experts are employed in Russia, about $4 billion are spent by Russian tourists in Antalya annually.

However, even if we look at the gas sphere only, rejection of Russian gas won’t be beneficial for any side. Turkey won’t find a cheap alternative to it quickly. As for Europe, let’s remember that the capacity of Nabucco pipeline is 26-31 billion cubic meters annually. In case if Russian gas is not imported by Turkey, the whole volume of the pipeline which is planned to diversify European gas supplies will be spent for Turkey.

Moreover, there is an aspect in the factor of the Crimean Tatars’ protection. The Milli Mejlis Party which presents itself as the only representative of interests of the ethnic group is not the only one in fact. This is the most pro-Western organization along with others. For example, Milli Firka stands for Eurasian integration. However, the current Turkey authorities have cool attitude to pro-Western parties, as pro-Western intellectuals and the military present the radical opposition in the country, while the ruling elite have directly stated that it has no intention to join the EU.

And finally, the Crimean Tatars feel safe in Russia, as well as native residents of Tatarstan and other Muslim regions. Moreover, their living standards will improve. The Ukrainian GDP per capita is more than threefold lower than the Russian one - $3800 vs $14000 in 2013, according to the IMF.

In the end Mejlis decided to send two representatives to the new Crimean government. At the same time anti-Russian forces still try to worsen Russian-Turkish relations at the emotional level.

Thus, Western threats to punish Russia by gas sanctions seem unreal either in European or in Turkish direction.