Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza. Especially for Zenith
Azerbaijan’s chairing of the Council of Europe could be a chance for European society to get closer to the South Caucasus country. However this is possible only within the framework of equal dialogue with the government in Baku, according to Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza, PhD student of the Berlin Free University.
This is a difficult time for Azerbaijan geopolitically. Russia is strengthening its military and political positions in the north and Iran is eliminating Western isolation in the south. These are not very comfortable neighbors for the small state. Both powers consider the republic with rich energy resources as in the sphere of their interests. Once Russia and Iran divided the Azerbaijani peoples, after the end of the Russian-Persian war in 1828. However, Baku managed to turn the country into a key player in European energy security without worsening relations with Russia. Azerbaijan cooperates in economic and military spheres with Israel and maintains constructive relations with Tehran.
The conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is one of challenges which the country has faced. Azerbaijan suffers from the heavy consequences of the long-lasting conflict with the neighboring republic. A million refugees is a heavy burden for the country’s economy, while Armenia occupies Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighboring regions. The fragile cease-fire regime which was achieved 20 years ago due to Russian mediation was not a guarantee for peace. The Russian-Georgian war of 2008 has shown how dangerous the escalation of conflicts in the South Caucasus is.
At the same time, the Muslim country with deep secular traditions is under religious pressure from foreign forces. For example, the Salafi movement is improving in Azerbaijan due to financial support from Arab monarchies. The number of Azerbaijani Salafis who fought against Bashar Assad and were killed in Syria was more than 200.
However, the internal political situation in the country is thought to be stable. An organized Islamist opposition has not been formed in Azerbaijan yet, while the previously strong secular opposition began to lose voters in 2003. It is a surprise that the democratic opposition is headed by such political figures as Ali Kerimli and Isa Gambara, who have lost presidential and parliamentary elections twice in the last 11 years. So there are doubts about the democratic traditions in these parties.
The political course of President Ilham Aliyev, despite negative comments by the Westerm media, is supported by the majority of the population. According to the public opinion poll which was conducted by the Information Centre of European Policy and initiated by the European Commission in 2013, 92% of respondents supported the current president. A few months later Ilham Aliyev won the presidential elections, getting 84% of the votes.
The government in Baku has serious financial reserves;a part of them is accumulated in the state oil fund and is invested into social projects for further improvement of living standards. This positively influences the rating of the government among the population. It seems there will be no alternative to Ilham Aliyev’s team in the near future.
Thus, the current government is the only possible side which is able to provide effective talks on human rights and democratic development. Theses on the support of civil society are pleasant for Europe, but they shouldn’t be the only measure in implementation of democratic values. The Council of Europe couldn’t contribute to further democratic development of the country if it had no trusting contacts with the political elite of the country.
The activity and statements by Christoph Strasser, German ombudsman, are a strong negative example from this point of view. The list of political prisoners in Azerbaijan, which was written by him, was the best example of non-professionalism and unserious work with facts. Some of listed persons were free at the moment of making the list, some of them died of natural causes, and some names were fake. Moreover, Strasser included members of the terrorist organization of Sadval on the list, who were sentenced for a bloody terrorist attack on the Baku metro in the 1990s. Considering these facts, it was natural that the Azerbaijani delegation had enough arguments to prevent the adoption of Strasser’s list in the PACE.
The Azerbaijani political elite was indignant at the unfairness of Christoph Strasser. Moreover, relations between the Council of Europe and official Baku worsened. Strasser’s report confirmed that confrontation with Baku on democratic issues won’t bring any success.
The Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan, Elmar Mamedyarov, announced in his speech devoted to Azerbaijan’s chairing of the CE that in the next 6 months Baku will support the development of three fundamental directions: human rights, democracy and the rule of law. The fact that the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan decided to choose the European path of development wasn’t an obvious step. Issues which are important both for the political elite of the country and the ordinary population should be considered by the Europeans in the sphere of trusting dialogue with Baku on human rights. Unfortunately, we haven’t seen this yet.
Azerbaijan’s chairing of the Council of Europe should be considered a chance for a “reset” and reformation of the dialogue on human rights with Azerbaijan. The statement by Minister Mamedyarov should be considered an indication of the readiness of Baku to conduct a dialogue. A favorable political atmosphere is being established for this at the moment. Azerbaijan is preparing for the first European Olympic Games in 2015, which will be an outstanding event for the country and its people. In this situation the political elite is ready to discuss not only the economic development of the country, but also its democratic social development.
