By Victoria Panfiloa, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Tbilisi is preparing a grand open-air concert on Europe Square on June 27. It will be dedicated to the signing of the EU Association Agreement. The government in Batumi will organize a ceremony for diplomats the following day. Georgian Prime Minister Irakly Garibashvili, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso and President of the Council of Europe Herman Van Rompuy will sign the document in Brussels on June 27. It will need ratification by the Georgian and EU parliaments. Latvia plans to ratify it on July 3.
There has been no rise in threats from Russia over the signing of the Agreement, despite the predictions of some experts. Zurab Abashidze, a special envoy of the Georgian PM for Russia, said a few months ago that he had been assured at a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin that Moscow would not impede the signing process.
Georgian State Minister for Integration into European and Euro-Atlantic Structures Alexi Petriashvili believes that challenges from Russia should not be ruled out. In his words, the government has studied all possible scenarios with its European and American partners. “They could be economic challenges. Direct military confrontation is less likely. We do all we can to prevent further escalation in the region. When 20% of your country is occupied by the Russian Armed Forces, the situation is grave by default.
He stated that Tbilisi had a plan developed with European partners to withstand pressure from Moscow. The main goal is to “preserve strategic peace, ignore provocations, continue recovering economic and democratic institutions.” The EU Agreement will allow the volume of the Georgian economy to grow by 4.3% and exports by 12%. “Those are quite important and impressive figures. It is equally important that interest of European investors in Georgia will rise after the signing. They have big expectations,” said Petriashvili.
Thus, it can be admitted that Georgia has finally taken the first practical step towards integration into the West in the years of independence. Membership of the EU and NATO will be a more complicated issue. No one has ever promised Tbilisi membership of the EU. The position of the North-Atlantic Alliance may seem disappointing for Georgia.
Tbilisi has been waiting for decisive actions from NATO authorities for a long time. Tbilisi will not receive the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the upcoming summit of heads of NATO member-states. It is the final stage for any country willing to join the Alliance. Georgia had the right to get the MAP. It has succeeded in realizing previous cooperation programs, reformation of the army and defenses. Georgia takes part in practical NATO coalitions: Kosovo, Afghanistan and has recently sent troops to the Central African Republic. The U.S., the Baltic states and Poland lobby for the idea of granting Georgia membership. Germany and France are opposed to it. All members of the Alliance need to give approval for that, according to the charter.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has recently declared: “There are other forms of cooperation. We will deepen and extend our partnership, but only beyond the Alliance for now.” NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed a similar idea, noting that Georgia was following recommendations, adopting standards and cooperation with it was improving. But it was still not enough to join NATO, he noted. Rasmussen urged Russia to refrain from putting pressure on Georgia over its choice.
Military experts have more freedom in giving their evaluations of the situation. Irakly Aladashvili, the editor-in-chief of the Arsenali magazine, supposes that “deeper cooperation” does not put obligations on the West and Georgia may end up providing manpower for operations in exchange for recommendations and instructions. Even joining the NATO Response Force in 2015 would not be a big advantage for Georgia, because the Force focuses on recovery from technogenic and ecological catastrophes.
Another military expert, Vakhtang Maisaya, speculates that the main factor in the way of Georgia towards joining NATO is the territorial problem. The Alliance does not want to be part of any armed conflict that may happen. The expert says that the MAP would not guarantee quick membership in the NATO.
“It is indeed the final step preceding joining the Alliance. But it may take many years. The MAP implies continuation of many reforms in literally all sectors: the military, economic, legal, in the civil society field and so on,” Maisaya told Vestnik Kavkaza. Maybe Georgia will not gain anything at the Wales summit, but it would suffer no losses either. Concerning the package of measures Rasmussen mentioned to help Georgia join NATO, their efficiency will only be evaluated after Tbilisi realizes what the West has to offer.
Georgia has taken the first practical steps towards integration into the WestBy Victoria Panfiloa, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaTbilisi is preparing a grand open-air concert on Europe Square on June 27. It will be dedicated to the signing of the EU Association Agreement. The government in Batumi will organize a ceremony for diplomats the following day. Georgian Prime Minister Irakly Garibashvili, President of the European Commission Jose Manuel Barroso and President of the Council of Europe Herman Van Rompuy will sign the document in Brussels on June 27. It will need ratification by the Georgian and EU parliaments. Latvia plans to ratify it on July 3.There has been no rise in threats from Russia over the signing of the Agreement, despite the predictions of some experts. Zurab Abashidze, a special envoy of the Georgian PM for Russia, said a few months ago that he had been assured at a meeting with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin that Moscow would not impede the signing process.Georgian State Minister for Integration into European and Euro-Atlantic Structures Alexi Petriashvili believes that challenges from Russia should not be ruled out. In his words, the government has studied all possible scenarios with its European and American partners. “They could be economic challenges. Direct military confrontation is less likely. We do all we can to prevent further escalation in the region. When 20% of your country is occupied by the Russian Armed Forces, the situation is grave by default.He stated that Tbilisi had a plan developed with European partners to withstand pressure from Moscow. The main goal is to “preserve strategic peace, ignore provocations, continue recovering economic and democratic institutions.” The EU Agreement will allow the volume of the Georgian economy to grow by 4.3% and exports by 12%. “Those are quite important and impressive figures. It is equally important that interest of European investors in Georgia will rise after the signing. They have big expectations,” said Petriashvili.Thus, it can be admitted that Georgia has finally taken the first practical step towards integration into the West in the years of independence. Membership of the EU and NATO will be a more complicated issue. No one has ever promised Tbilisi membership of the EU. The position of the North-Atlantic Alliance may seem disappointing for Georgia.Tbilisi has been waiting for decisive actions from NATO authorities for a long time. Tbilisi will not receive the NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the upcoming summit of heads of NATO member-states. It is the final stage for any country willing to join the Alliance. Georgia had the right to get the MAP. It has succeeded in realizing previous cooperation programs, reformation of the army and defenses. Georgia takes part in practical NATO coalitions: Kosovo, Afghanistan and has recently sent troops to the Central African Republic. The U.S., the Baltic states and Poland lobby for the idea of granting Georgia membership. Germany and France are opposed to it. All members of the Alliance need to give approval for that, according to the charter.German Chancellor Angela Merkel has recently declared: “There are other forms of cooperation. We will deepen and extend our partnership, but only beyond the Alliance for now.” NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen expressed a similar idea, noting that Georgia was following recommendations, adopting standards and cooperation with it was improving. But it was still not enough to join NATO, he noted. Rasmussen urged Russia to refrain from putting pressure on Georgia over its choice.Military experts have more freedom in giving their evaluations of the situation. Irakly Aladashvili, the editor-in-chief of the Arsenali magazine, supposes that “deeper cooperation” does not put obligations on the West and Georgia may end up providing manpower for operations in exchange for recommendations and instructions. Even joining the NATO Response Force in 2015 would not be a big advantage for Georgia, because the Force focuses on recovery from technogenic and ecological catastrophes.Another military expert, Vakhtang Maisaya, speculates that the main factor in the way of Georgia towards joining NATO is the territorial problem. The Alliance does not want to be part of any armed conflict that may happen. The expert says that the MAP would not guarantee quick membership in the NATO.“It is indeed the final step preceding joining the Alliance. But it may take many years. The MAP implies continuation of many reforms in literally all sectors: the military, economic, legal, in the civil society field and so on,” Maisaya told Vestnik Kavkaza. Maybe Georgia will not gain anything at the Wales summit, but it would suffer no losses either. Concerning the package of measures Rasmussen mentioned to help Georgia join NATO, their efficiency will only be evaluated after Tbilisi realizes what the West has to offe
