Armenian Prime Minister Ovik Abramyan said that Presidents Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) will meet in Russia to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. “The meeting will be held in Sochi on August 8 or 9. We hope that they will reach important agreements,” Interfax quotes Abramyan. The majority of experts believe that the only serious player capable of affecting the settlement of the conflict is Russia. Vladimir Yevseyev, the director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, expressed his point of view on the process in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
- Are there guarantees that Armenia would stop being a political ally of Russia the way Ukraine did?
- Attempts to pull Armenia away from Russia have been made just as with Ukraine. They continue. It should be clearly understood that Russia has no alternative for Armenia until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved. This is why all the attempts will run into a wall of rejection. So I do not believe that the Armenian economy can go West without a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. In this aspect, Russia has a very serious advantage over the West, because Yerevan considers that only Russia can be its military guarantee of security..
Attempts to pull Armenia away will certainly continue. This includes the proposal to sign the EU Association Agreement parallel to Armenia’s integration with Russia. Attempts to propose solutions for Nagorno-Karabakh are made but the Madrid Principles fail here.
- In this case, the question is will Russia benefit more from developing relations with Armenia as long as the conflict remains or gets resolved?
- There are different aspects of the problem. If we look, for example, into the security sector, Russia benefits more from resolving the conflict because it would contribute to strengthening of security in the North Caucasus, which is closely connected with the South. In other words, in military terms, resolving the conflict is favourable for Russia. Speaking of the political sector, if the situation stays frozen it is beneficial for Russia too, as long as certain transportation corridors are formed. Russia does not benefit from destabilization, a rising war for Nagorno-Karabakh is unfavourable because Russia would be involved in it. The war would become regional after Turkey joins it. Such a development is possible. The is the worst scenario for Russia.
I cannot say that conservation of the situation is good for Russia. Russia needs a certain improvement of the situation in terms of creating conditions for economic cooperation between Russia and Armenia.
- Doesn’t the growing economic and political interest of the West in Armenia encourage Russia to speed up a settlement of the conflict today to be the author of the solution?
- Russia has a very good example represented by the U.S. that actively tries to take everyone under control. We can say that about the Middle East quartet, for example, where the U.S. plays the main role. And we see what has happened, people are getting killed in the Gaza Strip. We see how the U.S. tried to take the six mediators of the Iranian nuclear crisis under control, no agreement has been signed. I can assure you that there are hardly any serious chances of reaching an agreement in November, before November 24.
When the U.S. tries to hog the covers, decide everything for everyone, nothing works out. Even the U.S. lacks the resources needed for settlement of such conflicts. So Russia will never take the U.S. route and say: “I will resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.” Russia will encourage an international mechanism for resolution of the problem. This is the essential difference from the U.S. position. Russia will try to find a conclusion to make the situation more acceptable for Russia and Azerbaijan. In these terms, the position of Russia is more pragmatic.
Concerning speeding up of the process… It is very easy to speed it up, you should just start a war for Karabakh. But you can understand the repercussions of such a step. So I think Russia will not speed anything up. Russia will continue to work. Then the U.S. will raise a bump when another attempt to take the world under control causes confusion. Then Russia will continue the work it was doing.
Russia understands that solving the problem quickly is impossible, that it needs paths for solving the problem. But there should be a clear understanding that there are no quick ways of solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.
- What role do you think the Armenian foreign diaspora plays in relations between Russia and Armenia?
- Speaking of the Armenian diaspora that is not on Russian territory (mainly France, the U.S.), I believe that it plays a destructive role in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. First, they do not understand the point of the problem. Secondly, they try to interfere. Taking into account their financial potential, they try to insist on their opinion, which is in fact wrong. I see no serious ways for the foreign diaspora to settle the problem. Of course, it can initiate talks about the Armenian Genocide in France, in the U.S., certain U.S. states, make some steps, but the foreign Armenian diaspora cannot propose and realize ways to resolve the Karabakh problem.
I think that the influence of the foreign Armenian diaspora on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be limited. This is my personal opinion. They should not interfere, because they live in absolutely different conditions. Look what poor lives people live in Armenia. Even in Russia, Armenians live a lot richer. Not to mention the life of Armenians in the U.S. Armenians in California and Boston have different lives too. But they cannot understand their compatriots, because they are in absolutely different conditions. In this aspect, their proposals are usually unrealizable. Limiting their influence would boost the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Focusing on their proposals would at least make finding a solution to the problem extremely hard.
Says Vladimir YevseyevArmenian Prime Minister Ovik Abramyan said that Presidents Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) will meet in Russia to discuss the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. “The meeting will be held in Sochi on August 8 or 9. We hope that they will reach important agreements,” Interfax quotes Abramyan. The majority of experts believe that the only serious player capable of affecting the settlement of the conflict is Russia. Vladimir Yevseyev, the director of the Center for Socio-Political Studies, expressed his point of view on the process in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.- Are there guarantees that Armenia would stop being a political ally of Russia the way Ukraine did?- Attempts to pull Armenia away from Russia have been made just as with Ukraine. They continue. It should be clearly understood that Russia has no alternative for Armenia until the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved. This is why all the attempts will run into a wall of rejection. So I do not believe that the Armenian economy can go West without a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. In this aspect, Russia has a very serious advantage over the West, because Yerevan considers that only Russia can be its military guarantee of security..Attempts to pull Armenia away will certainly continue. This includes the proposal to sign the EU Association Agreement parallel to Armenia’s integration with Russia. Attempts to propose solutions for Nagorno-Karabakh are made but the Madrid Principles fail here.- In this case, the question is will Russia benefit more from developing relations with Armenia as long as the conflict remains or gets resolved?- There are different aspects of the problem. If we look, for example, into the security sector, Russia benefits more from resolving the conflict because it would contribute to strengthening of security in the North Caucasus, which is closely connected with the South. In other words, in military terms, resolving the conflict is favourable for Russia. Speaking of the political sector, if the situation stays frozen it is beneficial for Russia too, as long as certain transportation corridors are formed. Russia does not benefit from destabilization, a rising war for Nagorno-Karabakh is unfavourable because Russia would be involved in it. The war would become regional after Turkey joins it. Such a development is possible. The is the worst scenario for Russia.I cannot say that conservation of the situation is good for Russia. Russia needs a certain improvement of the situation in terms of creating conditions for economic cooperation between Russia and Armenia.- Doesn’t the growing economic and political interest of the West in Armenia encourage Russia to speed up a settlement of the conflict today to be the author of the solution?- Russia has a very good example represented by the U.S. that actively tries to take everyone under control. We can say that about the Middle East quartet, for example, where the U.S. plays the main role. And we see what has happened, people are getting killed in the Gaza Strip. We see how the U.S. tried to take the six mediators of the Iranian nuclear crisis under control, no agreement has been signed. I can assure you that there are hardly any serious chances of reaching an agreement in November, before November 24.When the U.S. tries to hog the covers, decide everything for everyone, nothing works out. Even the U.S. lacks the resources needed for settlement of such conflicts. So Russia will never take the U.S. route and say: “I will resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.” Russia will encourage an international mechanism for resolution of the problem. This is the essential difference from the U.S. position. Russia will try to find a conclusion to make the situation more acceptable for Russia and Azerbaijan. In these terms, the position of Russia is more pragmatic.Concerning speeding up of the process… It is very easy to speed it up, you should just start a war for Karabakh. But you can understand the repercussions of such a step. So I think Russia will not speed anything up. Russia will continue to work. Then the U.S. will raise a bump when another attempt to take the world under control causes confusion. Then Russia will continue the work it was doing.Russia understands that solving the problem quickly is impossible, that it needs paths for solving the problem. But there should be a clear understanding that there are no quick ways of solving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem.- What role do you think the Armenian foreign diaspora plays in relations between Russia and Armenia?- Speaking of the Armenian diaspora that is not on Russian territory (mainly France, the U.S.), I believe that it plays a destructive role in settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. First, they do not understand the point of the problem. Secondly, they try to interfere. Taking into account their financial potential, they try to insist on their opinion, which is in fact wrong. I see no serious ways for the foreign diaspora to settle the problem. Of course, it can initiate talks about the Armenian Genocide in France, in the U.S., certain U.S. states, make some steps, but the foreign Armenian diaspora cannot propose and realize ways to resolve the Karabakh problem.I think that the influence of the foreign Armenian diaspora on the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be limited. This is my personal opinion. They should not interfere, because they live in absolutely different conditions. Look what poor lives people live in Armenia. Even in Russia, Armenians live a lot richer. Not to mention the life of Armenians in the U.S. Armenians in California and Boston have different lives too. But they cannot understand their compatriots, because they are in absolutely different conditions. In this aspect, their proposals are usually unrealizable. Limiting their influence would boost the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Focusing on their proposals would at least make finding a solution to the problem extremely ha
