By Yuri Glushkov exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Russia, despite its concerns about the Ukrainian crisis, is regaining the initiative in the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It has long been clear that only the diplomatic potential of Russia can bring peace to the Karabakh process and help the sides reach a satisfactory agreement.
Attempts by France to organize a summit of Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group have been unsuccessful. Francois Hollande, in his attempt to play the role of peacekeeper, wasted his time visiting Baku and Yerevan because the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (France, U.S., Russia) could not come up with a worthy agenda for negotiations. It could not be any different, negotiations on negotiations are of no use to Azerbaijan, Armenia wants the status quo to stay in force.
The second front for Russian diplomacy will open in Sochi on August 8-9. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his counterparts Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will have meetings. Whether a joint meeting of the three presidents will be organized will depend on the Sochi negotiations and the situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian contact line in Karabakh.
The surprising escalation of tensions in the region was seen in July – early August. Both sides have lost dozens of soldiers. The standoff in Karabakh has turned into violent clashes with many losses for the first time in 20 years. An enormous amount of provocative statements were dropped into the press only to add fuel to the conflict and slam the doors of peaceful talks.
Just when the flames of war are simultaneously burning down Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Israel and Palestine. Why would someone want to set the Karabakh conflict on fire? The conflict is at the very southern borders of Russia, it would be a war between a strategic ally and a strategic partner of Moscow. Geopolitical plots can certainly have a spot in the minds of analysts speculating about clashes of civilizations and worlds. But details and facts may bring them to more mundane explanations of the escalating conflict and attempts to start its hot phase.
Outlines of a plan to resolve the conflict have been on the negotiating table for a long time. Diplomats cannot invent anything new. The 20 years of mediation justify the chosen path. In many aspects, the programs of the OSCE Minsk Group have gained support from the heads of state and their implementation started long ago. It is going stage-by-stage, gradually, to keep peace in the region. One of the steps is the de-occupation of Azerbaijani districts around Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenian troops. In return, Azerbaijan and Turkey will unblock communications and fully resume economic cooperation in the region. Then comes the de-occupation of Karabakh, the return of refugees and displaced persons. This will open prospects for a referendum to finally decide the status of the region.
Armenia is expected to take the first step: de-occupy at least a few districts. Regional disputes would then start resolving themselves. The price Yerevan demands for recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. In other words, Armenia wants to exchange the captured territories for their independence from Azerbaijan. Baku, in its turn, is not weak enough to give up, because the aforementioned formula has no sense of compromise. The conditions Armenia will accept to return the occupied Azerbaijani territories can be considered the key.
Serzh Sargsyan faces pressure from all sides: Paris, Washington and Moscow expect a clear and determined answer that Yerevan cannot voice. It is evident that the independent status of Karabakh in such conditions is impossible, but handing over districts for opening borders and dubious guarantees of security from mediators are unacceptable for Armenia as the “winner.”
The escalation of the conflict lies in Yerevan’s unpreparedness to follow the road map to resolve the conflict. The idea is clearly formulated by Manvel Yegiazaryan, an Armenian combatant in the Karabakh war of the 1990s, the commander of the Arabo squad. In an interview with mass media, he said that “war is the only alternative to the refusal of the Armenian side of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to give up territory.”
A simple analysis of clashes in Karabakh, followed by big losses, draws attention to the fact that none of the sides has confirmed the loss of soldiers. If we imagine an Azerbaijani saboteur group attacking an Armenian post, someone would undeniably be left on the territory. But this has not happened. So it can be concluded that Armenian soldiers were ordered to raid Azerbaijani trenches and provoke a response. By this logic, the one who benefits from escalation of the conflict is obvious. Renewal of the hot phase of confrontation with Azerbaijan will preserve the dominant positions of the Armenian government and stop all attempts to undermine it from the inside.
Azerbaijan does not want a war. Baku is more pragmatic and confident that the situation can be resolve peacefully. A peaceful plan is quite wise and meets Azerbaijani expectations of justice. None of the sides of the negotiation process denies the need to change the situation, return the occupied territories and refugees. Concerning the referendum, it will take place only when both communities gain equal opportunities.
Bloody clashes in Karabakh and the attempt to provoke Azerbaijan into a high-scale military response are elements of one chain: the current government of Yerevan wants to evade answering mediators and maintain the status quo. The period for expressing a position have expired, so they need to give the world proof of the impossibility of handing “bellicose Azerbaijan” at least a patch of land which serves as a buffer for the “aggressor.” Sargsyan will maintain the status quo and hold on to power for some more time. Otherwise, Manvel Yegiazaryan and his supporters would have asked “cowardly and incompetent people to leave the political stage.”
Unlike France and the U.S., Russia has demonstrated its ability to put the sides behind the negotiating table, just like in 2008. Moscow expects Sargsyan to give a clear answer to the questions formulated by the OSCE MG. It is very important for Russia to make sure its ally is committed to joining the Eurasian Union has no need to worry about conflicts and closed borders. Otherwise, all the pathos from rapprochement and integration would be worth nothing. Russian business, owning about half of the Armenian economy, has no profit from the situation. Vladimir Putin will convince Sargsyan that only a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the opening of the Turkish and Azerbaijani borders can give Armenian factories life, employ the population, prevent a demographic catastrophe and the dying of Armenia.
Moscow regains initiative in peace processBy Yuri Glushkov exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaRussia, despite its concerns about the Ukrainian crisis, is regaining the initiative in the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. It has long been clear that only the diplomatic potential of Russia can bring peace to the Karabakh process and help the sides reach a satisfactory agreement.Attempts by France to organize a summit of Azerbaijani and Armenian Presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group have been unsuccessful. Francois Hollande, in his attempt to play the role of peacekeeper, wasted his time visiting Baku and Yerevan because the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group (France, U.S., Russia) could not come up with a worthy agenda for negotiations. It could not be any different, negotiations on negotiations are of no use to Azerbaijan, Armenia wants the status quo to stay in force.The second front for Russian diplomacy will open in Sochi on August 8-9. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his counterparts Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan will have meetings. Whether a joint meeting of the three presidents will be organized will depend on the Sochi negotiations and the situation on the Azerbaijani-Armenian contact line in Karabakh.The surprising escalation of tensions in the region was seen in July – early August. Both sides have lost dozens of soldiers. The standoff in Karabakh has turned into violent clashes with many losses for the first time in 20 years. An enormous amount of provocative statements were dropped into the press only to add fuel to the conflict and slam the doors of peaceful talks.Just when the flames of war are simultaneously burning down Ukraine, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Israel and Palestine. Why would someone want to set the Karabakh conflict on fire? The conflict is at the very southern borders of Russia, it would be a war between a strategic ally and a strategic partner of Moscow. Geopolitical plots can certainly have a spot in the minds of analysts speculating about clashes of civilizations and worlds. But details and facts may bring them to more mundane explanations of the escalating conflict and attempts to start its hot phase.Outlines of a plan to resolve the conflict have been on the negotiating table for a long time. Diplomats cannot invent anything new. The 20 years of mediation justify the chosen path. In many aspects, the programs of the OSCE Minsk Group have gained support from the heads of state and their implementation started long ago. It is going stage-by-stage, gradually, to keep peace in the region. One of the steps is the de-occupation of Azerbaijani districts around Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenian troops. In return, Azerbaijan and Turkey will unblock communications and fully resume economic cooperation in the region. Then comes the de-occupation of Karabakh, the return of refugees and displaced persons. This will open prospects for a referendum to finally decide the status of the region.Armenia is expected to take the first step: de-occupy at least a few districts. Regional disputes would then start resolving themselves. The price Yerevan demands for recognition of the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. In other words, Armenia wants to exchange the captured territories for their independence from Azerbaijan. Baku, in its turn, is not weak enough to give up, because the aforementioned formula has no sense of compromise. The conditions Armenia will accept to return the occupied Azerbaijani territories can be considered the key.Serzh Sargsyan faces pressure from all sides: Paris, Washington and Moscow expect a clear and determined answer that Yerevan cannot voice. It is evident that the independent status of Karabakh in such conditions is impossible, but handing over districts for opening borders and dubious guarantees of security from mediators are unacceptable for Armenia as the “winner.”The escalation of the conflict lies in Yerevan’s unpreparedness to follow the road map to resolve the conflict. The idea is clearly formulated by Manvel Yegiazaryan, an Armenian combatant in the Karabakh war of the 1990s, the commander of the Arabo squad. In an interview with mass media, he said that “war is the only alternative to the refusal of the Armenian side of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to give up territory.”A simple analysis of clashes in Karabakh, followed by big losses, draws attention to the fact that none of the sides has confirmed the loss of soldiers. If we imagine an Azerbaijani saboteur group attacking an Armenian post, someone would undeniably be left on the territory. But this has not happened. So it can be concluded that Armenian soldiers were ordered to raid Azerbaijani trenches and provoke a response. By this logic, the one who benefits from escalation of the conflict is obvious. Renewal of the hot phase of confrontation with Azerbaijan will preserve the dominant positions of the Armenian government and stop all attempts to undermine it from the inside.Azerbaijan does not want a war. Baku is more pragmatic and confident that the situation can be resolve peacefully. A peaceful plan is quite wise and meets Azerbaijani expectations of justice. None of the sides of the negotiation process denies the need to change the situation, return the occupied territories and refugees. Concerning the referendum, it will take place only when both communities gain equal opportunities.Bloody clashes in Karabakh and the attempt to provoke Azerbaijan into a high-scale military response are elements of one chain: the current government of Yerevan wants to evade answering mediators and maintain the status quo. The period for expressing a position have expired, so they need to give the world proof of the impossibility of handing “bellicose Azerbaijan” at least a patch of land which serves as a buffer for the “aggressor.” Sargsyan will maintain the status quo and hold on to power for some more time. Otherwise, Manvel Yegiazaryan and his supporters would have asked “cowardly and incompetent people to leave the political stage.”Unlike France and the U.S., Russia has demonstrated its ability to put the sides behind the negotiating table, just like in 2008. Moscow expects Sargsyan to give a clear answer to the questions formulated by the OSCE MG. It is very important for Russia to make sure its ally is committed to joining the Eurasian Union has no need to worry about conflicts and closed borders. Otherwise, all the pathos from rapprochement and integration would be worth nothing. Russian business, owning about half of the Armenian economy, has no profit from the situation. Vladimir Putin will convince Sargsyan that only a settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the opening of the Turkish and Azerbaijani borders can give Armenian factories life, employ the population, prevent a demographic catastrophe and the dying of Armenia
