August 1914. One hundred years later

Mikhail Belenky. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza

100 years ago Russia took part in the war, which changed the country so much that is has been changing the world ever since. Thanks to this war Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Armenia received independence. Even though the period of independence was not long, the Soviet authorities could not ignore this fact and these countries formally joined the Soviet Union as sovereign republics. During the Soviet times Ukraine and Armenia increased its territories at the expense of Russia and Azerbaijan respectively.

Continuing reminiscing let us say some words about the situation former Soviet republics were facing after they declared independence from the USSR. Russia received not only the greatest part of Soviet property, but also all its loans. Ukraine was the frontrunner of the Soviet heavy industry. The number of plants, atomic power stations and mines in Ukraine was greater than in Russia. Armenia had a well-developed car industry and functioning atomic power plant. Azerbaijan, which has been treated by the Soviet authorities as a "giant petrol station", has already spent a great part of its resources by 1992. Newly-found oil wells needed great investment. The republic had not such funds, taking into consideration the prices for oil. What changed within the last 22 years? Russia became an energy super-power. The Ukrainian industry fell into decay, except for the enterprises who maintain close ties with Russia. Ukraine totally depends on Russian gas. In fact only Russian gas and Russian investment are the only things thanks to which the Armenian economy is still alive. Occupation of Karabakh and neighbouring Azerbajiani disctrict did not bring prosperity to the country. On the contrary Azerbaijan even after territorial losses became a very influential regional power, which demonstrates unprecendented growth in all spheres.

100 years later the danger of a new war is still present. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is based on Russia's attempt to secure the rights of the Russian population in Eastern Ukrainian territories, which were handed over to Ukraine by the Soviet authorities. Azerbaijan wants to return terrirtoris handed by the Soviet leadership over to Armenia. The only difference is that if in Donetsk Region the Russian population still dominates the society despite all attempts to assimilate it, while on the occupied territories of Azerbaijan the native population was forced out before or after the Karabakh war. The same is true about the eight occupied districts of Azerbaijan.

Those who say that Russia and Azerbaijan are trying to steal from their neighbours are being insincere. There is however another peculiar issue concerning the attitude of each state to the challenges another one is facing. Even though Moscow officially recongnizes the territorial intergity of Azerbaijan it does not try to pursue Armenia, its ally, to do the same. At the same time Azerbaijani did not recongnize Crimea's joining the Russian Federation. But does it mean the country are not friendly towards one another? One of the most eloquent proofs that they are indeed are the recent war games in the Caspian Sea. The drills were held amid attempts made by western power to demonstrate that Russia is now an outsider in the world's politics. Still Azerbijan is not afraid to prove them wrong.

What does it mean? It means that Azerbaijan did not back Russia's policy towards Crimea only because it could not make a move that would strenthen Armenia's position in Karabakh. However in spite of formal condemnation of Russia's decision, many Azerbaijanis believe that Russia has given a brilliant example of restoration of historical justice. Still the majority of experts believe that the time has not come yet to do the same in Karabakh. Moreover Russia has been trying to prevent a new war between Armenia and Azerbaijan for 20 years. That is why Russia delivers arms to both countries. It seems like those who believe that the only reason to secure profits for Russia's defense industry are wrong, taking into consideration that Armenia hardly ever pays for these arms. It's clear that Russia is going to pay a high price for its military presence in Armenia. However after moderate pro-EU forces came to power in Georgia (and amid strengthening of Russian-Turkish and Russian-Azerbaijani ties) Russia is becoming less and less interested in Armenia as its southern bulwark. It seems probable that Russia will someday realize that Armenia is nothing but a burden. However one should note that it's not Russia, which is Armenia's major source of power, but an influential diaspora abroad. The Armenian diaspora is doing its best to secure public support in many countries. Russia and Azerbaijan would only dream of having such a powerful tool.

Of course it may disappoint those who believe themselves to be the judges of the whole world and who are accustomed to rule what's wrong and what's right, to those, who financed meetings on the Bolotnaya Square and launched a Poland-based "Rasulzade programme" aimed at preparing Azerbaijani for a possible revolution. Such revolution has once been predicted by one foreign diplomat, whose last name either means "morning star" or "a weapon consisting of a heavy ball set with spikes attached rigidly to a staff." One can chose any variant one likes.

The events in Ukraine have shown the real state of affairs to many. The "leaders" of the Bolotnay upprising has just found their end in one of Moscow courts. In Baku the same scandal concerning a "human right advocate" and "conflict specialist" is continuing. It well-known which country reacted to both cases in a hysterical way. Of course their anger is understandable. Millions of dollars were spent on "promoting democratic institutes" in vain. In Russia and Azerbaijan those who wanted to export democracy were unsuccessful.

In fact Russian and Azerbaijani mentality is very close to one another. A couple of years ago western gay activists were trying to hold a pride parade on Moscow's Tverskaya Street. One can only imagine how such an attempt would end in Baku. Stil the "world judge" is forcing our countries to legalize these "democratic values".

The same approach is demonstrated by those who are trying to label the Eurasian as Russia's dangerous project. These people ingnore the fact that economic ties between states has been existing for centuries. Trade routes involving our countries concern both Europe and Asia. Russia is being a bridge and nothing else. Azerbaijan is another such bridge and no one can take its away from the country.

To sum up let us compare two quotations. First one is as follows: "We believe only in our own forces. This policy has been proved successful. As our economic growths continues we are able to secure our independence and independence is our greatest achievement". The second one: "The schemes designed for poor and weak countries, which suffer from innner conflicts will now work in our country." The first phrase was said by president Heydar Aliyev. The second one by President Vladimir Putin. Still it seems like both are true for both Russia and Azerbaijan.