"Azerbaijan needs certain guarantees that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved,"

 

head of the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the Humanities Ismail Agakishiyev believesRussian PlanetThe signing of the official agreement concerning Armenia's integration into the Eurasian Union has been being postponed for almost three months, despite the fact that the country has also met the necessary conditions spelled out in the "road map". There has been no official explanation why the process of Armenia's Eurasian integration is taking so long. Some believe the reason is secret interference from Azerbaijan, the unresolved status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, criticism voiced by Kazakhstan and Belarus or internal intrigues in Armenia itself. Russian Planet discussed the issue with the head of the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the Humanities, Ismail Agakishiyev.- Why is the process of finalization of Armenia's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union taking so long? Which issues have been left unresolved?- The situation is very ambiguous. During the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union's Supreme Council held on May 29, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that the agreement concerning the country joining the body would be signed by June 15. Then the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, as well as the Armenian president, agreed to postpone it to July 1. Then another date was suggested - July 3 (now the parties believe the agreement should be signed in late October 2014 - Russian Planet). The reasons are twofold. First of all there are internal debates in Armenia. In addition to that there are some external factors. Speaking about the internal factors, I should note that the opposition's struggle against the Eurasian integration project is very strong. Speaking about the foreign powers, I have to say that Western powers, who have always been supporting president Sargsyan's political line, are now discontent with his choice. Armenian experts are saying that even though Armenia is a part of this game it does not really have a say in it. It means that Armenia does not participate in the processes unfolding in response to its Eurasian bid.- Is it possible that the Eurasian Union will give up Armenia's interests in order to secure Azerbaijan's membership in the body?- It's absolutely clear that Russian would like Azerbaijan to be a member of the Eurasian Union. In fact, Russia is interested in successful cooperation with Azerbaijan no matter what integration projects are being launched in the region. Moreover, Russia is interested in Azerbaijan more than in Armenia. The reason is Crimea joining the Russian Federation and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its policy towards Ukraine. Western countries are trying to isolate Russia, and Russia has to prove that it maintains close ties with those former Soviet republics, which the West is interested in cooperating with as well. Azerbaijan is indeed such a state. However, the country's successful integration into the Eurasian Union is hardly ever possible due to its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku paid special attention to Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev's statement saying that Russia understands the importance of resolution of the Karabakh conflict for Azerbaijan's integration into the Eurasian Union, which he made in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. The remarks made by the Eurasian Union's unofficial envoy to Armenia, Artashes Gegamayan, at the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in Baku were also quite symbolic. He said that Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union is well-based and that the country would like Azerbaijan to be a part of the body as well. In such a case the two countries would have a chance to resolve the existing problems, he said. This would mean that from now on Armenians will feel comfortable in Baku and Azerbaijanis - in Yerevan, he said. Unfortunately the Armenians believed these words were a provocation against Armenia.Speaking about the Eurasian Union's possible readiness to give up Armenia's interests, we first of all have to identify those interests, the interests of the country which occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighbouring districts of Azerbaijan. There were reports saying that under Russian pressure Armenia has agreed to liberate the Agdamsky, Fizulinsky and Dzhebrailsky districts so that Azerbaijan would join the Eurasian Union. It is unclear, however, whether Azerbaijan will agree to such a plan or not. Some believe the territories may be liberated after a Russian peacekeeping contingent enters the region. Azerbaijan, however, is not certain that such a move would be appropriate.- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Armenia will be able to join the Eurasian Union only within its borders recognized by the United Nations, which means without Karabakh, as it was during its joining the World Trade Organization. Does this mean that Armenia will be able to join the body only if it gives up Karabakh?- Only the Republic of Armenia may become a lawful member of the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union and not Nagorno-Karabakh. The whole world recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This means that Karabakh may join the Eurasian Union only as part of Azerbaijan and not Armenia. However, Armenia's integration into the body will mean that the Union recognizes the country which has occupied Karabakh as a legal member of the Union. That is what Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is afraid of. What he meant is that Armenia will be able to join the Union by July 1 if it resolves the Karabakh conflict. The conflict is not resolved.Speaking about the World Trade Organization, I have to note that Armenia agreed to join the body in the borders recognized by the UN, while Karabakh is outside those borders. This means it's an official precedent. The Armenians thought that the Eurasian Union would simply ignore the Karabakh issue. In fact the Armenian authorities were telling lies to the people, saying that they would not give up Karabakh. I believe they are trying to secure their weakening power by attracting Russia's support. They are using the fact that Russia is interested in Armenia integrating into the Eurasian Union.- The officials say that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not discussed in the framework of the talks concerning Armenia' integration into the Eurasian Union.  However, experts believe that it is the Karabakh conflict which, among other issues, prevents a successful finalization of this process. One of the proofs is that Armenian officials regularly pay visits to the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you believe that it is Karabakh which is causing such a delay?

- I am absolutely certain. It is clear, however, that neither the Customs Union nor the Eurasian Union are capable of resolving this conflict either in the interests of Armenia or in the interests of Azerbaijan. Still, recent visits to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Speaker of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin show that bilateral relations have intensified substantially. It means that no moves can be made without coordination with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan needs certain guarantees that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved. Only in such a case will Azerbaijan be able to join such a large-scale economic project.

head of the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the Humanities Ismail Agakishiyev believesRussian Planet

 The signing of the official agreement concerning Armenia's integration into the Eurasian Union has been being postponed for almost three months, despite the fact that the country has also met the necessary conditions spelled out in the "road map". There has been no official explanation why the process of Armenia's Eurasian integration is taking so long. Some believe the reason is secret interference from Azerbaijan, the unresolved status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, criticism voiced by Kazakhstan and Belarus or internal intrigues in Armenia itself. Russian Planet discussed the issue with the head of the Caucasian Studies Centre of the Russian State University for the Humanities, Ismail Agakishiyev.

 

- Why is the process of finalization of Armenia's integration into the Eurasian Economic Union taking so long? Which issues have been left unresolved?

 

- The situation is very ambiguous. During the meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union's Supreme Council held on May 29, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said that the agreement concerning the country joining the body would be signed by June 15. Then the leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus, as well as the Armenian president, agreed to postpone it to July 1. Then another date was suggested - July 3 (now the parties believe the agreement should be signed in late October 2014 - Russian Planet). The reasons are twofold. First of all there are internal debates in Armenia. In addition to that there are some external factors. Speaking about the internal factors, I should note that the opposition's struggle against the Eurasian integration project is very strong. Speaking about the foreign powers, I have to say that Western powers, who have always been supporting president Sargsyan's political line, are now discontent with his choice. Armenian experts are saying that even though Armenia is a part of this game it does not really have a say in it. It means that Armenia does not participate in the processes unfolding in response to its Eurasian bid.
- Is it possible that the Eurasian Union will give up Armenia's interests in order to secure Azerbaijan's membership in the body?

 

- It's absolutely clear that Russian would like Azerbaijan to be a member of the Eurasian Union. In fact, Russia is interested in successful cooperation with Azerbaijan no matter what integration projects are being launched in the region. Moreover, Russia is interested in Azerbaijan more than in Armenia. The reason is Crimea joining the Russian Federation and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia in response to its policy towards Ukraine. Western countries are trying to isolate Russia, and Russia has to prove that it maintains close ties with those former Soviet republics, which the West is interested in cooperating with as well. Azerbaijan is indeed such a state. However, the country's successful integration into the Eurasian Union is hardly ever possible due to its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku paid special attention to Russian presidential aide Sergey Glazyev's statement saying that Russia understands the importance of resolution of the Karabakh conflict for Azerbaijan's integration into the Eurasian Union, which he made in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. The remarks made by the Eurasian Union's unofficial envoy to Armenia, Artashes Gegamayan, at the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly held in Baku were also quite symbolic. He said that Armenia's decision to join the Eurasian Union is well-based and that the country would like Azerbaijan to be a part of the body as well. In such a case the two countries would have a chance to resolve the existing problems, he said. This would mean that from now on Armenians will feel comfortable in Baku and Azerbaijanis - in Yerevan, he said. Unfortunately the Armenians believed these words were a provocation against Armenia.
Speaking about the Eurasian Union's possible readiness to give up Armenia's interests, we first of all have to identify those interests, the interests of the country which occupied Nagorno-Karabakh and seven neighbouring districts of Azerbaijan. There were reports saying that under Russian pressure Armenia has agreed to liberate the Agdamsky, Fizulinsky and Dzhebrailsky districts so that Azerbaijan would join the Eurasian Union. It is unclear, however, whether Azerbaijan will agree to such a plan or not. Some believe the territories may be liberated after a Russian peacekeeping contingent enters the region. Azerbaijan, however, is not certain that such a move would be appropriate.

 

- Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Armenia will be able to join the Eurasian Union only within its borders recognized by the United Nations, which means without Karabakh, as it was during its joining the World Trade Organization. Does this mean that Armenia will be able to join the body only if it gives up Karabakh?

 

- Only the Republic of Armenia may become a lawful member of the Customs Union or the Eurasian Union and not Nagorno-Karabakh. The whole world recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This means that Karabakh may join the Eurasian Union only as part of Azerbaijan and not Armenia. However, Armenia's integration into the body will mean that the Union recognizes the country which has occupied Karabakh as a legal member of the Union. That is what Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev is afraid of. What he meant is that Armenia will be able to join the Union by July 1 if it resolves the Karabakh conflict. The conflict is not resolved.
Speaking about the World Trade Organization, I have to note that Armenia agreed to join the body in the borders recognized by the UN, while Karabakh is outside those borders. This means it's an official precedent. The Armenians thought that the Eurasian Union would simply ignore the Karabakh issue. In fact the Armenian authorities were telling lies to the people, saying that they would not give up Karabakh. I believe they are trying to secure their weakening power by attracting Russia's support. They are using the fact that Russia is interested in Armenia integrating into the Eurasian Union.
 

 

- The officials say that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not discussed in the framework of the talks concerning Armenia' integration into the Eurasian Union.  However, experts believe that it is the Karabakh conflict which, among other issues, prevents a successful finalization of this process. One of the proofs is that Armenian officials regularly pay visits to the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you believe that it is Karabakh which is causing such a delay?

 

- I am absolutely certain. It is clear, however, that neither the Customs Union nor the Eurasian Union are capable of resolving this conflict either in the interests of Armenia or in the interests of Azerbaijan. Still, recent visits to Baku by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin and Speaker of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin show that bilateral relations have intensified substantially. It means that no moves can be made without coordination with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan needs certain guarantees that the Karabakh conflict will be resolved. Only in such a case will Azerbaijan be able to join such a large-scale economic project.