By Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenian Prime Minister Ovik Abramyan has recently become activated: he makes regular visits to regions of the country, generous promises to solve many old problems and visits to positions of the armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. The facts may mean that Abramyan is highlighting his attempt at the presidency. It is possible that he has already started a pre-electoral campaign as an independent political figure. The resourceful prime minister is trying on the “president’s suit.” He opposes the constitutional amendments initiated by President Serzh Sargsyan. Indeed, why would Abramyan approve changes that imply a switch from a presidential to a parliamentary rule?
The Special Presidential Commission for Constitutional Reforms prepared a concept to reform the Constitution for public discussions on October 15. Sargsyan, whose presidency term expires in 2018, wants to use them to stay in power as prime minister. The president may stay in power as the speaker or secretary general of the ruling Republican Party. Most experts believe that he will go for being a prime minister who will gain presidential authority.
The project of constitutional amendments does not seem convincing or clear and has dubious chances for realization. Sargsyan lacks the necessary number of votes in the parliament to pass the amendments. He needs at least 87 out of 131 votes. The ruling Republican Party has only 70 votes. It is unclear how the president will pass the amendments without votes from the opposition Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National Congress and Heritage parties, which have already spoken out against the constitutional changes.
Members of the Armenian National Congress keep reiterating that the president is trying to use the constitutional amendments for personal gain. The situation in the parliament, where 70 of the votes belong to the ruling party and 56-57 votes are uncontrollable, remains alarming for the government. Hopes that the parliament will give approval are very shady. The situation is complicated by the fact that passing the amendments in the parliament would still need a referendum.
Many members of the government cannot understand the project. Robert Kocharyan proposed a much clearer idea of a successor – Serzh Sargsyan, who became prime minister in spring 2007. Many members of the regime had enough time to prepare for such an option.
Sargsyan’s message to the pyramid of power means that he refuses to resign. But the ruling elite has few allies to back him up with that. The problem is not only in the confusing and complicated variant of power reproduction that the president strives for. Many members of the regime have seen the second president, a much more resourceful and powerful leader than Sargsyan, try to take back power to no avail.
All this makes realization of the president’s initiative very doubtful even within the government. The situation encourages struggles among the authorities. One such case is the activation of the prime minister. But what are Ovik Abramyan’s chances?
Doubtlessly, the prime minister’s post is an important resource base. The prime minister is authoritative. But on the other hand, all levers of power are still in the hands of the president. Abramyan has no control over law enforcers. Things are not that simple in the government itself. If Tigran Sargsyan had some sort of a team, Abramyan has no holistic team. On the other hand, he has recently started appointing his relatives at the governmental administration. In the context of the common political struggle, those are secondary steps. Besides, the government has many backers of the president.
Abramyan has serious resources inside the Republican Party, especially its parliamentary factions. But that is probably about 20-25 votes.
Another question is what relations the prime minister will have with other states. Moscow is very cautious around Armenia, especially considering the situation in Ukraine and the fall of Yanukovych. The regimes of Yanukovych and Sargsyan are very similar and depend on one man. Moscow supports President Sargsyan, who needs to conclude the process of Armenia joining the Eurasian Economic Union. Regarding the position of the West, it is vague.
The lack of control over law enforcers, the complicated situation in the government and absence of support from foreign players, not to mention public support, are all signs of poor resources of the prime minister. Thus, he is taking risks in a certain sense.
The regimes of Yanukovych and Sargsyan are very similar and depend on one manBy Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaArmenian Prime Minister Ovik Abramyan has recently become activated: he makes regular visits to regions of the country, generous promises to solve many old problems and visits to positions of the armed forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. The facts may mean that Abramyan is highlighting his attempt at the presidency. It is possible that he has already started a pre-electoral campaign as an independent political figure. The resourceful prime minister is trying on the “president’s suit.” He opposes the constitutional amendments initiated by President Serzh Sargsyan. Indeed, why would Abramyan approve changes that imply a switch from a presidential to a parliamentary rule?The Special Presidential Commission for Constitutional Reforms prepared a concept to reform the Constitution for public discussions on October 15. Sargsyan, whose presidency term expires in 2018, wants to use them to stay in power as prime minister. The president may stay in power as the speaker or secretary general of the ruling Republican Party. Most experts believe that he will go for being a prime minister who will gain presidential authority.The project of constitutional amendments does not seem convincing or clear and has dubious chances for realization. Sargsyan lacks the necessary number of votes in the parliament to pass the amendments. He needs at least 87 out of 131 votes. The ruling Republican Party has only 70 votes. It is unclear how the president will pass the amendments without votes from the opposition Prosperous Armenia, Armenian National Congress and Heritage parties, which have already spoken out against the constitutional changes.Members of the Armenian National Congress keep reiterating that the president is trying to use the constitutional amendments for personal gain. The situation in the parliament, where 70 of the votes belong to the ruling party and 56-57 votes are uncontrollable, remains alarming for the government. Hopes that the parliament will give approval are very shady. The situation is complicated by the fact that passing the amendments in the parliament would still need a referendum.Many members of the government cannot understand the project. Robert Kocharyan proposed a much clearer idea of a successor – Serzh Sargsyan, who became prime minister in spring 2007. Many members of the regime had enough time to prepare for such an option.Sargsyan’s message to the pyramid of power means that he refuses to resign. But the ruling elite has few allies to back him up with that. The problem is not only in the confusing and complicated variant of power reproduction that the president strives for. Many members of the regime have seen the second president, a much more resourceful and powerful leader than Sargsyan, try to take back power to no avail.All this makes realization of the president’s initiative very doubtful even within the government. The situation encourages struggles among the authorities. One such case is the activation of the prime minister. But what are Ovik Abramyan’s chances?Doubtlessly, the prime minister’s post is an important resource base. The prime minister is authoritative. But on the other hand, all levers of power are still in the hands of the president. Abramyan has no control over law enforcers. Things are not that simple in the government itself. If Tigran Sargsyan had some sort of a team, Abramyan has no holistic team. On the other hand, he has recently started appointing his relatives at the governmental administration. In the context of the common political struggle, those are secondary steps. Besides, the government has many backers of the president.Abramyan has serious resources inside the Republican Party, especially its parliamentary factions. But that is probably about 20-25 votes.Another question is what relations the prime minister will have with other states. Moscow is very cautious around Armenia, especially considering the situation in Ukraine and the fall of Yanukovych. The regimes of Yanukovych and Sargsyan are very similar and depend on one man. Moscow supports President Sargsyan, who needs to conclude the process of Armenia joining the Eurasian Economic Union. Regarding the position of the West, it is vague.The lack of control over law enforcers, the complicated situation in the government and absence of support from foreign players, not to mention public support, are all signs of poor resources of the prime minister. Thus, he is taking risks in a certain sen
