By Alan Kazayev, the head of a sub-department at the MSLU, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
As promised, the new Turkish president made his first visit to Azerbaijan. From there, he will probably be on his way to the NATO summit in Cardiff with his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev.
The Turkish leader is a regular guest in Baku. Just five months ago, he visited it as the prime minister to discuss energy issues.
Erdogan and Aliyev will most likely spend the two days discussing coordination of political efforts in settling the Karabakh crisis. The same attention may be spent on new European and world crises and challenges, where Ankara and Baku focus on the complicated situation in the south-eastern districts of Ukraine and the Middle East warfare.
Concerning the Karabakh problem, it is traditionally a highlight of the leaders of the two states. New threats that appeared in the context of renewal of the conflict and unprecedented diplomatic and media activity a few weeks ago requires comparison of notes. Some statements recently made by Armenian politicians, including President Serzh Sargsyan, regarding settlement of Armenian-Turkish commercial relations out of the context of the changing status of Nagorno-Karabakh, add an unexpected intrigue to expectations from Erdogan’s meetings in Baku. The clearness of the position of the Turkish leader was expressed distinctly in Ankara. No wonder Ahmet Davutoglu, an ally of Erdogan and now leader of his ruling party, made a special statement about backing Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh issue before the president’s visit. Most certainly, such will be the point of view of Recep Tayyip Erdogan after talks with Ilham Aliyev.
Another problem is the regional conflict in Iraq and Syria that affect Turkey’s interests directly. Radical Islamists of the ISIS supported by the Turkish military and Syrian intelligences just a few months ago moved to neighbouring Iraq and started fierce fighting against Kurdish groups, threatening Turkey’s own provinces inhabited by Kurds. President Erdogan, speaking for “soft” Islamization in Turkey, is absolutely unhappy with the brutal behaviour of ISIS in Iraq, feared by the secular-oriented majority of the Turkish population. Azerbaijan, as a secular state, cannot be satisfied with a radical Islamic movement near its borders.
The positive attitude of Iranian President Rouhani towards Azerbaijan is not surprising either. Iran is exceptionally interested in gathering allies of neutral countries in the light of the practically inevitable involvement in the events in Iraq. The sophisticated multi-figured composition appearing in the Middle East affects Azerbaijan as a supplier of energy resources one way or another.
Turkey receives about 16% of consumed gas from Azerbaijan. Soon the figure may double, if the EU and the NATO may take a harsher stance in relations with Russia over the military conflict in Ukraine.
As an important member of the North Atlantic Alliance, Turkey is extremely interested in stability in the Black Sea Region. The question is how can Ankara keep good economic and political ties with Russia and remain a loyal ally of the NATO? Azerbaijan could help in solving that problem, because relations between Moscow and Baku have significantly improved.
It is not very clear whether Ilham Aliyev would accept a personal invitation to the NATO summit in Wales, by joining his Turkish counterpart who will fly from Baku to the UK tomorrow. Should the Azerbaijani leader give a positive response, he will meet Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan at the NATO summit. Such a meeting would certainly happen if Sargsyan himself decided to visit Cardiff. The initiative of the Karabakh talks has come from U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group James Warlick, taken as a response by U.S. diplomacy to the recent meeting of Aliyev, Sargsyan and Putin in Sochi. I note that the main issue of the NATO summit that will be attended by 27 partner states of the Alliance is resisting Russia in Ukraine. Russia itself was not invited to Wales…
