Yuri Glushkov exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenia is one step from official accession to the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). After a decision by the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, which permitted Yerevan to join the organization, two other partners of Moscow – Belarus and Kazakhstan – should have their say. It is expected that in a month at the summit of the EEU heads in Minsk the membership of Armenia in the new organization will be officially registered. However, allies of Russia are not so enthusiastic about the accession of Yerevan to their club. On the one hand, intrigue is maintained; on the other hand, it improves the opposition inside Armenia, which stands against joining the EEU.
Astana considers the new union as an exclusively economic project, but politics interferes in the process somehow. According to the head of the New York Office of the Institute of Democracy and Cooperation, political scientist Andranik Migranyan, Armenia shouldn’t trust its security to one structure and its economic prosperity to another structure. “If there is a superpower that gives a guarantee to your security, you should cooperate with it within the CSTO and the EEU. Joining the EEU is the only right and crucial decision for Armenia,” Migranyan thinks.
While there are some economic prospects in the accession of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, in the Armenian situation everything is so unclear that the reasonableness of its accession can be explained only by politics. Russia takes the main risk of pulling the Armenian economy from a dreadful abyss. Moreover, Armenia is pulled toward the EEU to prevent the integration process with the European Union and the association of the EU, as Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine have been lost already.
The example of Ukraine is illustrative. Many analysts think that the best choice for the country, which is being torn by civil war because of integration disputes, is a military and economically non-aligned status. As for settlement of Armenian problems, it seems only joining the EEU can work; but in the future this could lead to internal political crises. The current authorities have lost trust due to their sudden changes in geopolitical priorities. The Armenian opposition tries to find the roots of any failures of the government in the sphere, calling for their own Maidan.
In fact, Russia willingly promises to feed and finance the Armenian economy to maintain the ruling Karabakh clan in power. Considering its own confrontation with the West, economic problems, and the sanction regime, are there enough money and forces to feed the satellite?
Apparently, there are almost no forces. The Russian company of Rosneft has almost lost interest in reviving production in the major Armenian chemical plant of Nairit, while its workers don’t receive salaries and are striking. According to the Minister of Energy of Armenia, Yervand Zakharyan, the Russians don’t consider the opportunity of investing in the plant anymore, and the government is searching for different options for reviving the enterprise. Nairit was shut down in April 2010. Last year Rosneft, together with the Italian company Pirelli, declared that they would invest $400 million in the plant. In the current context such an investment could be considered nonsense.
The participants in the union understand clearly that together with Yerevan the EEU receives an old unsettled conflict and difficult relations with the economic leader of the South Caucasus – Azerbaijan, as Armenia occupies a part of its territories. The absence of a border with any country of the EEU and the isolation of Armenia from Azerbaijan and Turkey due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict makes the effectiveness of integration of the EEU countries minimal.
Even today Russia cannot effectively provide its military base in Armenia with vehicles, weapons and other supplies because Georgia and Turkey have closed their air space to Russian military aircraft. And how can they trade with the country, how can they invest in industries when the logistics of cargo transportation depends on a different country which is not very friendly to Russia? Any fruits, vegetables, cans will have to pass through Georgia before reaching the territory of Russia and then the territory of Kazakhstan and Belarus; and the country chose another integration project – the European Union.
Who will guarantee in Moscow that Armenian apricots and peaches will still be Armenian rather than Georgian, Turkish, and so on, after they pass the border in Verkhny Lars? The impenetrability of the EEU borders will be under threat, and the Russian market can receive a large amount of smuggled goods.
The Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the lack of desire of Yerevan to leave the occupied territories in order to open transport communication with Azerbaijan and Turkey, create significant obstacles for integration. It is notable that Armenia will have to control the border with the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic strictly to fulfil the conditions of EEU membership, launching customs and checking cargos. Goods made in Nagorno-Karabakh shouldn’t be delivered to Russia and other members of the EEU under the beneficial conditions which Armenia has, according to the law. It seems to be a most unpleasant topic for the Armenian authorities.
Answering a direct question from Kazakhstan’s about Karabakh, Yerevan had to confirm that Nagorno-Karabakh will stay beyond the limits of the new union. The last statement on this issue was made by the Foreign Minister of Armenia, Eduard Nalbandyan, at the meeting with his Austrian colleague on September 8th. However, it seems the words said by Nalbandyan are only to pacify foreign partners. Inside Armenia different statements are made. In reality, Yerevan hopes to cheat on its allies, passing Karabakh fruits and vegetables off as its own.
