Mikhail Belyaev. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The bitter struggle of the West and Russia for influence in Ukraine and other former Soviet countries leaves less space for traditionally-neutral Azerbaijan for the conduct of its multi-vector foreign policy. In such circumstances, Baku is consistently moving away from the West, relying on regional cooperation with major regional players - Moscow, Ankara and Tehran.
One after another, almost all Western foundations and NGOs have been squeezed out of the country within the last couple of years, while Baku firmly refused the association with the EU long before the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine. The Azerbaijani authorities were well aware of the forces on which funds were spent by the Western foundations located in the republic, and the country did not want to risk its relations with Russia. Quite naturally, Azerbaijan, which stopped at all the germs of the "Euromaidan", is not included on the new list of pets in Washington. One can recall that the US Senate did not include Azerbaijan in a bill to provide a number of post-Soviet countries with the status of allies, unlike Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. The actual loss of Azerbaijan in the GUAM configuration indicates a change in the geopolitical priorities in the relations between Baku and its Western partners.
In addition to that, anti-Western rhetoric is being tightened in the country. During a recent visit to Azerbaijan of Dmitry Rogozin, for the first time Baku harshly outlined its own position on the issue of the Western sanctions against the Russian Federation.
"No one will break Russia, it will never bend, on the contrary, it will further strengthen," Deputy Prime Minister Yaqub Ayyubov said at a meeting with his Russian counterpart. After a couple of days, Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polat Bulbuloglu said that the West is putting pressure on Azerbaijan because of its unwillingness to suspend relations with Moscow. Simultaneously, the Ambassador expressed his willingness to increase the export of Azerbaijani state-produced agricultural products to Russia in order to replace Western goods. The diplomat also confirmed information about the upcoming visit to Azerbaijan of LDPR leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky. The explicit warming in Azerbaijan's relations with the politician was believed in government circles of the Republic to be a positive signal. Today, the political establishment of the country shows willingness to cooperate with the Russian politician known for his closeness to the Kremlin.
In recent years, criticism of the double standards and insincerity of Western policy has already already become a commonplace in the speeches of the representatives of the ruling elite. The flames were fanned by the resolution adopted by the European Parliament on on September 18, in which Azerbaijan, in an unprecedentedly harsh and peremptory form, was accused of human rights violations. In fact, Europe categorically demanded the release from detention of all arrested for tax evasion and espionage foir "Westerners", including those who so far are only under investigation. Azerbaijan considers this approach a gross interference in its domestic affairs. Baku was also surprised by the selectivity of European lawmakers, who do not say a word about the violations of basic rights of nearly one million Azerbaijani refugees and internally-displaced persons.
The issue of human rights was used against Azerbaijan by the Europeans after a recent campaign aimed at total stripping of the domestic political field from Western agents of influence. The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry says it is no coincidence that this resolution was adopted just before the ceremony of laying the foundation of the pipeline TANAP. According to the press-secretary of the Foreign Ministry Elman Abdullayev, it is a deliberate attempt to cause damage to the further development of relations with the EU by the European lawmakers with ties to Armenian lobby groups.
The head of the Azerbaijani delegation at the PACE, Samad Seyidov, has stressed that none of the European MPs who voted for the resolution have ever been in Azerbaijan or are aware of the processes occurring in the country. Finally, one of the key members of the ruling party "Yeni Azerbaijan", Siyavush Novruzov, has urged Azerbaijan to leave the organization "Euronest"; in his opinion, the body has not become a platform for constructive cooperation at parliamentary level, and is being more and more used for the anti-Azerbaijani attacks.
Moving away from the West politically, Baku drew its attention not just to the north, but also to its southern neighbour. The development of relations with Tehran gained momentum after the election of new President Hassan Rouhani. High-level delegations, one after another, make reciprocal visits, negative articles and accusations in the media of the two countries have almost disappeared, President Ilham Aliyev visited Tehran in April and is now expecting a return visit by the Iranian president to Azerbaijan in the fall. During the September trip of the economic delegation of Azerbaijan headed by Minister of Economic Development Shahin Mustafayev to Iran, Tehran invited Azerbaijan to act as a mediator for the organization of agricultural production in Russia. In order to increase the level of cooperation with the transport sector, the head of the Customs Administration of Iran, Masoud Karbasian, will soon visit Baku. In addition, officials have made specific decisions on the construction of a new power plant with a capacity of 1000 megawatts in the border zone. Finally, before the end of the year the Defense Minister of Iran is also due to pay a visit to Azerbaijan.
Iranian media also reported with reference to the Minister of Information Technology of Iran that Azerbaijan, Turkey and Iran intend to create a tripartite commission on economic cooperation. Given the regular tripartite meetings of the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey, further alignment of regional cooperation between Baku, Ankara and Tehran against the current geopolitical background fits into the logic of the process.
It should be noted that the relations between Turkey and the United States are not going through the best times. Turkish President Erdogan hit out at Washington with charges of the destruction of Ukraine. With such statements Erdogan indicated fundamental differences in the American and Turkish assessments of the Ukrainian crisis. Almost simultaneously, the closest allies Ankara and Baku defused accountable CIA "nursist groups" in the echelons of power, which their overseas partners also could not possibly like. Finally, one should not forget that it was the efforts of the government of Ilham Aliyev, in cooperation with Erdogan, that blocked the project lobbied by the United States concerning opening the borders of Turkey and Armenia, which ultimately served the purpose of withdrawal of Armenia from Russia's orbit.
Obviously, for Baku, Ankara, Moscow and Tehran after the Afghan, Iraqi, Libyan and Ukrainian precedents there are reasonable grounds to believe that the strengthening of Western influence in the already troubled Caucasus region is fraught with the creation of the next hotbed of instability there. The sharp deterioration in the economic situation in Russia, which, of course is the aim of the Western powers in introducing increasingly tough sanctions against the country, will not contribute to regional stability either. In this context, the strengthening of regional cooperation and closer cooperation between the historic neighbours seems the only possible way to counter emerging threats from outside.
