By Victoria Panfilova, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The presidents of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran will take part in the opening of the new Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway branch on December 3. The new route would shorten the route from the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Europe to 600km. Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are discussing opportunities to join the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars transport route. The railways may be interconnected with the Russian network. Moscow wants to gain access to Iran through Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Central Asia is paying more attention to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK) initiated by Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have expressed interest in joining BTK. President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov discussed participation in the project with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in 2013. As the situation in Afghanistan changed, Kabul got an opportunity to take part in it. Wahidullah Waissi, the director general for economic cooperation at the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said during negotiations in Ashkhabad that formation of the transit and transportation corridor would benefit the socio-economic recovery of Afghanistan, its participation in large regional and international infrastructure projects.
Experts have a common opinion that the initiative to form the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-BTK corridor was timely and will boost the further progress and prosperity of all countries in the region by increasing trade volumes and reducing transit expenses. Kazakhstan has the large Aktau-Baku ferry which is part of TRACECA.
Ashkhabad and Astana are interested in launching BTK as soon as possible. It would boost exports of Kazakh and Turkmen products to Europe through the Caspian and generate extra income from transit of products of third parties through their territories. BTK is expected to reach a capacity of 30 million tons of goods a year. The new railway line will stimulate freighting from Asia to Europe.
“The efforts of Turkmenistan to join the railway under construction through the South Caucasus seems quite logical and fits in with the current strategy of Ashkhabad, the goal of which is to find a way out of the geopolitical trap associated with the status of a “gas station” that it gained after the disintegration of the USSR,” politologist Arkady Dubnov said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. He assumes that the railway may run along the left bank of the River Amu Darya, from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, towards Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz, Tajikistan. The project will bypass Uzbekistan. It will greatly alter the political balance in the region. The question is: who will finance the project? Chinese sponsorship could make a serious contribution to stabilization in Afghanistan. “In such circumstances, realization of the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline (TAPI) project may become real, because security problems in both projects will be solved completely and Beijing is interested in it the most,” speculates Dubnov. He pointed out the latest initiative of China to encourage negotiations between the new authorities of Kabul and the Taliban under mediation of Pakistan.
“Turkmenistan, however, just like Kazakhstan, uses a ferry over the Caspian. Thus, the Caspian is not an obstacle for them. Trains from Turkmenistan could reach the coasts of the Caspian, board a ferry and then move on the land through Azerbaijan and Georgia towards the ports of the Black Sea and farther to Kars,” said Andrey Kazantsev, the director of the Analytical Center.
“Russia is building the North-South route towards Iran, which will run along the western coast of the Caspian, passing through Armenia. They are generally part of the obligations of Moscow within the framework of Armenia joining the EaEU,” noted Kazantsev.
Another option is to build a railway to Iran through Azerbaijan. It is a cheaper project. Russian railways are already connected with the Azerbaijani network, they just need a connection between the Iranian railway system and the Azerbaijani one. The agreement to connect them was reached during the visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Baku. Russia’s participation in the project was discussed during the visit of State Duma Speaker Sergey Naryshkin to Tehran on November 17.
Alexander Sobyanin, the head of the strategic planning service of the Near-Border Cooperation Association, believes that financing grandiose railway projects and their connections by Western countries would minimize Russia’s involvement. In his opinion, the volume of freighting in the region does not need such high-scale projects.
Andrey Kazantsev agrees with the latter and says that there is not much to transport from Afghanistan to Turkey and Europe. But he sees the potential of the route in transporting U.S. forces through the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Georgia. “The Russian route for withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan has become very problematic due to the conflict with Ukraine. It is vital for them to have an ace at the negotiations with Pakistan, through which lies the main route of withdrawal from Afghanistan,” said Andrey Kazantsev, adding that Islamabad basically resorted to blackmail when solving local problems.
At the same time, Kazantsev disagrees that the projects meet someone’s interests or violate the interests of Russia. “Moreover, it often happens in practice that infrastructure projects developed by other players may be used by third players, Russia’s time will come inevitably,” Kazantsev expresses confidence.
Big railway networkBy Victoria Panfilova, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaThe presidents of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Iran will take part in the opening of the new Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway branch on December 3. The new route would shorten the route from the Persian Gulf, Central Asia and Europe to 600km. Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are discussing opportunities to join the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars transport route. The railways may be interconnected with the Russian network. Moscow wants to gain access to Iran through Azerbaijan and Armenia.Central Asia is paying more attention to the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway (BTK) initiated by Azerbaijan. Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan have expressed interest in joining BTK. President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov discussed participation in the project with Turkish President Abdullah Gul in 2013. As the situation in Afghanistan changed, Kabul got an opportunity to take part in it. Wahidullah Waissi, the director general for economic cooperation at the Afghan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said during negotiations in Ashkhabad that formation of the transit and transportation corridor would benefit the socio-economic recovery of Afghanistan, its participation in large regional and international infrastructure projects.Experts have a common opinion that the initiative to form the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-BTK corridor was timely and will boost the further progress and prosperity of all countries in the region by increasing trade volumes and reducing transit expenses. Kazakhstan has the large Aktau-Baku ferry which is part of TRACECA.Ashkhabad and Astana are interested in launching BTK as soon as possible. It would boost exports of Kazakh and Turkmen products to Europe through the Caspian and generate extra income from transit of products of third parties through their territories. BTK is expected to reach a capacity of 30 million tons of goods a year. The new railway line will stimulate freighting from Asia to Europe. “The efforts of Turkmenistan to join the railway under construction through the South Caucasus seems quite logical and fits in with the current strategy of Ashkhabad, the goal of which is to find a way out of the geopolitical trap associated with the status of a “gas station” that it gained after the disintegration of the USSR,” politologist Arkady Dubnov said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza. He assumes that the railway may run along the left bank of the River Amu Darya, from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, towards Mazar-i-Sharif and Kunduz, Tajikistan. The project will bypass Uzbekistan. It will greatly alter the political balance in the region. The question is: who will finance the project? Chinese sponsorship could make a serious contribution to stabilization in Afghanistan. “In such circumstances, realization of the Trans-Afghan gas pipeline (TAPI) project may become real, because security problems in both projects will be solved completely and Beijing is interested in it the most,” speculates Dubnov. He pointed out the latest initiative of China to encourage negotiations between the new authorities of Kabul and the Taliban under mediation of Pakistan.“Turkmenistan, however, just like Kazakhstan, uses a ferry over the Caspian. Thus, the Caspian is not an obstacle for them. Trains from Turkmenistan could reach the coasts of the Caspian, board a ferry and then move on the land through Azerbaijan and Georgia towards the ports of the Black Sea and farther to Kars,” said Andrey Kazantsev, the director of the Analytical Center.“Russia is building the North-South route towards Iran, which will run along the western coast of the Caspian, passing through Armenia. They are generally part of the obligations of Moscow within the framework of Armenia joining the EaEU,” noted Kazantsev.Another option is to build a railway to Iran through Azerbaijan. It is a cheaper project. Russian railways are already connected with the Azerbaijani network, they just need a connection between the Iranian railway system and the Azerbaijani one. The agreement to connect them was reached during the visit of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to Baku. Russia’s participation in the project was discussed during the visit of State Duma Speaker Sergey Naryshkin to Tehran on November 17.Alexander Sobyanin, the head of the strategic planning service of the Near-Border Cooperation Association, believes that financing grandiose railway projects and their connections by Western countries would minimize Russia’s involvement. In his opinion, the volume of freighting in the region does not need such high-scale projects.Andrey Kazantsev agrees with the latter and says that there is not much to transport from Afghanistan to Turkey and Europe. But he sees the potential of the route in transporting U.S. forces through the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Georgia. “The Russian route for withdrawal of forces from Afghanistan has become very problematic due to the conflict with Ukraine. It is vital for them to have an ace at the negotiations with Pakistan, through which lies the main route of withdrawal from Afghanistan,” said Andrey Kazantsev, adding that Islamabad basically resorted to blackmail when solving local problems.At the same time, Kazantsev disagrees that the projects meet someone’s interests or violate the interests of Russia. “Moreover, it often happens in practice that infrastructure projects developed by other players may be used by third players, Russia’s time will come inevitably,” Kazantsev expresses confide
