Vestnik Kavkaza
About 40 countries and integration groupings formally expressed their desire to create a free trade zone with the Eurasian Economic Union, which came into force on 1 January. Negotiations are being held with Vietnam, Israel, India and Egypt. However, the EEU still has to "digest" its new members. Kyrgyzstan should become a fully-fledged member of the Eurasian Union in only six months, but for Armenia this issue has been resolved already.
The benefit of the Eurasian Economic Union to Yerevan obvious, the benefit from Yerevan to the Eurasian Union is not.
The Armenian economy is not as great as the Russian or Kazakhstani economies, which is likely to force other countries of the EEU to invest in Armenia.
The share of the distributable Yerevan customs duties derived from imports of goods into the territory of the EEU was 1.13%. At the same time, the share of Belarus is reduced from 4.7% to 4.65%; Kazakhstan - from 7.3% to 7.25%, Russia - from 88% to 86.97%.
Up to 2022, Armenia will be able to apply different rates from the EEU customs duties on a number of products, including meat and meat products. Until 2020 a separate tariff will operate for Yerevan for some types of dairy products, e.g. eggs, honey, and until 2019 for some types of fruit and nuts.
Armenia will also apply zero tariff rates on gasoline until 2018, and on the common customs tariff the rate will switch in 2020. The same principle will be regulated by the level of customs duties on certain products of organic and inorganic chemistry, pharmaceutical products, fertilizers, paints, household chemicals, leather, plastics and rubber (including tyres).
Joining the EEU is unlikely to help Yerevan overcome the country's socio-political crisis. Experts point out that 2015 will be difficult from the socio-economic point of view, and in terms of adapting to the standards of the EEU. This is compounded by the problems of the lack of common borders with the countries of the EEU and Armenia, and instability in the Russian economy, on which essentially the Armenian economy and Georgian rapprochement with Europe depends. The fact is that for communication with Armenia it was planned to use just road transport through the territory of Georgia through the Upper Lars checkpoint - Kazbegi, or marine transport through the port of Poti.
But the main obstacle for Armenia's accession to the EEU was Nagorno-Karabakh - the territory of neighboring Azerbaijan, controlled by Yerevan.
On 29 May at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said that Armenia can join the EEU without Nagorno-Karabakh, meaning within the borders recognized by the UN.
It was clear that Armenia joining the new integration association would benefit everyone, but it is not clear to what purpose Yerevan continued to "muddy the waters" with statements about the necessity of entering the EEU with Karabakh.
As a result, the signing of the Treaty of Accession of Armenia to the EEU was postponed several times, but finally in Yerevan it was realized that to "drag" Karabakh into the EEU was unrealistic.
Experts have even said that it would be logical to consider Armenia's accession to the EEU after the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, then no problems would exist. If the European Union has rules that prohibit states with unresolved territorial conflicts from becoming members of the European Union, then in the documents of the Eurasian Economic Union this issue is not clearly specified. In this regard, analysts predict that the Karabakh issue will sooner or later emerge in the EEU.
Today Armenia needs serious internal reforms of its criminal-oligarchic economic model, and it is clear that the best way out of the political and economic crisis, which continues in Yerevan, could be a constructive approach to the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In Armenia, it is realized that it was the policy of the leadership of the republic that led to the current deplorable state of the country, and that to get out of this impasse will be extremely difficult. But supporters of the separatist regime still build the illusion of "Greater Armenia" and hope for the preferences of participation in such integration projects.
Armenia joining EEU provides the ability to export its goods to the Common Market countries participating in this association, and some observers fear that Yerevan may try to "push" products produced in Nagorno-Karabakh to the markets of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus. Naturally, we are not talking about massive exports, but a few hundred bottles of alcoholic beverages produced in Nagorno-Karabakh can get through Armenia to the markets of the Eurasian Union. However, in Baku it is believed that, with respect for the prestige and image of Azerbaijan in the world, none of the countries would want to spoil the EEU's relationship with Azerbaijan and won’t take advantage of provocative transactions that may be offered by Armenia.
