By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Astana is preparing to host a summit of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to settle the situation in Donbas and normalize Ukrainian-Russian relations. The day of the summit will be set by their foreign ministers in Berlin today. Experts wonder whether Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev would take German Chancellor Angela Merkel's role as the main mediator in Ukrainian-Russian peace talks. Nazarbayev made an unscheduled visit to Kiev in late December, visiting Moscow afterwards. The Kazakhstani leader said in Kiev that he will try to end the conflict in Donbas. The West welcomed his initiative and expressed support. He manages to stay on good terms with both Vladimir Putin and Western leaders. Demonstratively, Nazarbayev made an unscheduled visit to Berlin. He discussed Astana hosting a summit of the four states with Merkel.
Spokesman of the German Foreign Ministry Martin Schaefer told journalists that Berlin was expecting Nazarbayev to stimulate efforts to solve the Ukrainian crisis. "Nazarbayev is still taken as one of the most important communication channels with Russia and Putin personally by the West, especially in Europe. To a great extent, it is because channels for direct dialogue between Vladimir Putin and European leaders stopped functioning effectively. In particular, Angela Merkel's negative statements about Putin are well-known (she doubted his rationality and awareness). Until recently, Merkel had been considered the main mediator in affairs between Russia and the West due to the traditional Russian-German friendship and her good knowledge of Russia and the USSR. In the context of a conflict, the deficit of dialogue needs to be refilled. So the communication channel through Nazarbayev and the West and Moscow is being used for negotiations more broadly.
Speaking of which, Lukashenko aspires to the same role, although he is not that good at it. Besides the personal format through Nazarbayev, the German foreign minister proposed using the formats of dialogue between structures of the EU and structures of the Eurasian economic integration, where Kazakhstan plays a key role too, more often," said Andrey Kazantsev, the director of the MGIMO Analytical Center, in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza.
In his opinion, such an elevation of the political and diplomatic role of Kazakhstan and Nazarbayev personally has different aspects. On the one hand, Nazarbayev is both the initiator of Eurasian integration and a personal friend of Putin, they have never had any rows (unlike Lukashenko). The recent discussion of Kazakhstani history is an exception, considering that Moscow and Minsk have a lot more tense scandals. Moreover, Nazarbayev is a patriarch of post-Soviet and world politics, he knows all the nuances of both sides.
On the other hand, Nazarbayev, unlike Lukashenko, has always managed to keep on good terms with Russia and the West simultaneously. He is renowned for his mediation efforts, active formation of international institutes endorsing peace and mutual understanding (CICMA, post-Soviet structures, active role in the OSCE etc.).
"Generally, a Nobel Peace Prize could become a good conclusive accord in the political career of Nazarbayev, if he manages to reconcile Russia and the West, I reckon he will be a good candidate," supposes the expert. Besides, Kazakhstan longs for peace between Russia and the West, otherwise the foreign policy of Astana will be in deep crisis.
Yerlan Sairov, a Kazakhstani political analyst, proposes that the mediation mission of Nazarbayev has an economic subtext. "Due to the events between Russia and Ukraine, the economic situation in Kazakhstan may become aggravated. Whatever they say about anti-Russian sanctions leaving Kazakhstan untouched, the situation tells a different story. This year, Kazakhstan predicts slowing of economic growth or even recession. Kazakhstan is in greater need of foreign investments," says Sairov.
According to the Kazakhstani analyst, the events between Russia and Ukraine have shaken the global economic situation. "Nazarbayev is trying to initiate a true dialogue between the West and Russia. It is vital for our coutry, once again, the economy of Kazakhstan is maximally dependent on Russia. If the "Normandy" format in Astana succeeds, we may speak about a significant rise in the role of Kazakhstan on the international arena. It improves the investment image of our country, an important factor at this bothersome time," noted Sairov.
Experts share a common opinion that the Kazakhstani president has no other option than to carry on with the peace efforts. "This is the difference between Nazarbayev's position and Lukashenko's position, the latter is solely trying to speculate on his potential mediation role, lacking deep interest in it. Lukashenko, on the contrary, usually takes advantage of competition between Russia and the West. It is the competition that provides him with such enormous economic aid from Russia," believes Andrey Kazantsev.
