After Gyumri: Russia should not only think about the power elite

Oleg Kusov especially for Vestnik Kavkaza

The murder of the Avetisyan family by a Russian soldier in Gyumri did not play the role of a detonator in Russian-Armenian relations. The situation was managed to be kept under control. But Armenian NGOs funded by West have all these days made great efforts to give the tragedy an anti-Russian aspect. It turned out that Russia should be held entirely responsible for the deserted soldier Permyakov. During the protests in Yerevan, near the residence of the President of the country, an attempt to burn a Russian flag with the slogan "An Armenian court or out of Armenia" took place. In the Armenian press anti-Russian statements blossomed. The circumstances of the murder had not been known yet, but the former head of the National Security Council, David Shahnazaryan, had already stated in the press that "the Russian authorities must officially apologize to the Armenian people and the authorities in Armenia."

In the first days after the tragedy, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan could not bring the situation under control. The opposition has accused him of acting under the dictation of the Kremlin. For example, the writer Levon Javakhyan said resignedly to reporters: "We are under the heel of the Russians."
Immediately, Sargsyan was accused of recently reminiscing about former President Yanukovych in the days when the Maidan started. Moreover, the pro-Western social forces of Armenia noted that Sargsyan had gone further than Yanukovych, bringing the country into the Eurasian Union, thus rejecting Armenia being in Europe. The Avetisyan family killed in Gyumri has already began being compared to the Kiev Heavenly Hundred, and the protests in Yerevan and Gyumri to the Maidan. The opposition media is using the term "Armenian Spring".

The opposition has started saying again that Moscow continues to regard Armenia as an outpost. It says Russia bets on the power elite of the country, without delving into the cares of society, not working with the opposition, with which US diplomats meanwhile spend a lot of their time. Reliance on power clans in the country is an established practice of the foreign policy of the Kremlin. It applies in respect to the North Caucasian republics, but within the state it is much easier to implement this concept. In independent states, Moscow has to compete with other world centers. The Kremlin placates the authorities and forgets about the people, for whom the West creates numerous NGOs. But the Ukrainian experience has shown that the authorities can be expelled from the country in a short time, compared to the people. 
The basis of this discontent is created by the same authorities in Armenia. It is the poorest country in the South Caucasus. According to official data, 35% of the population lives below the poverty line. According to the World Bank, the standard of living in Armenia is comparable with Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kosovo, Mongolia and Bangladesh. Late last year, the US research organization «CATO» published a report on poverty in the world, according to which Armenia entered the ten poorest countries. Unemployment in the country is at a high level - almost 18% of the active population are not working, according to official data. The cynical West can do whatever it wants with such impoverished people in the process of implementing their plans in the region.

Experts in Moscow and Yerevan reflect on how we can rectify the situation. They talk about proven methods of work with the community through NGOs. But the Russian authorities have a trump card stronger than non-governmental organizations - more than a million Armenians are living in Russia. Thanks to their remittances, many relatives and friends can survive at home. They could become a source of pro-Russian influence, but Moscow does not hurry to use this reserve.

The Russian authorities do not have enough knowledge about the South Caucasus, this opinion we can hear from some experts. Serious analytical structures are needed in the form of institutions that would have complete information about the processes in the volatile Caucasus. They should study the socio-economic situation in the region, know what the characteristics of life are in Gyumri, starting, for example, with features of life in Razdan. Moscow should clearly, in figures, understand what the cost is to life in Armenia with the unsettled Karabakh conflict, which means Baku is ready to invest in the development of these territories, with significant political movements. When the Russian authorities will possess complete information about the lives of the people in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, and not only about the mood of the ruling elites, then political decisions will be made in time and in a competent manner. A new crisis in the South Caucasus, with the spinning flywheel of the conflict in Ukraine, cannot be withstood by Russia

This time everything is already worked out. Crucially, Armenian-Russian relations and, consequently, the Eurasian Economic Union, is not in danger today. But Gyumri’s lesson is very cruel and dangerous. It is a signal to Moscow to reconsider its South Caucasian policy.