Is Armenia on the threshold of social disruptions?

A big conference of opposition political parties and social organizations, which was initiated on February 5th by Prosperous Armenia, defined the depth of socio-economic problems and new tendencies in the country's internal policy. The core of the conference was the idea that the Armenians who are suffering social difficulties are on the verge of an explosion. And all political forces should demand a change of power, as society doesn’t trust the authorities. Representatives of the government reacted quickly.

According to members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, a speech by Gagik Tsarukyan, a leader of PA, was full of contradictions, there was no logic; moreover, it was an attempt to threaten the authorities. At the same time, pro-government experts began to state that the social disruption which Tsarukyan spoke about wouldn’t happen in Armenia, as the current difficult situation is not new, and no drastic changes in the country should be expected.

The deepening of the majority of socio-economic problems goes up to 2008, i.e. the beginning of Serge Sargsyan’s presidency. In the last 7 years the authorities didn’t solve any social or economic problem; they didn’t take any real steps to provide the necessary reforms. The world financial economic crisis of 2008-2009 played a big role in the worsening of internal problems, as well as the current difficult situation in Russia. However, the Armenian government didn’t take any steps to improve the socio-economic situation either then or now.

On February 6th another event which damaged citizens’ position in the country took place – the administration of the chemical plant of Nairit dismissed 1700 employees. The government failed to find a solution to problems with production, modernization of equipment, and a huge debt, accumulated for more than 20 years. Nairit used to be a brand of Armenia; today it is on the way to being shut down.

Along with the government’s idleness, there is a sphere which is a subject of the biggest dissatisfaction of citizens. It is the growth of pressure on small and medium-sized business (SMB), which covers all services, trade, healthcare and transport. In the last 7 years taxes in all spheres of SMB have been growing (See “Armenian small business doesn’t like tax law”). According to Vardan Bostnadyan, PhD in Economics, systemic governmental pressure on SMB leads to its destruction and encourages the disappearance of the middle class, i.e. it leads to a growth of poverty and immigration.

In recent years the internal crisis has begun to cover ever newer layers of the population. Peoples’ indignation is growing rapidly.

According to the National Statistics Service, in December 2014 retail turnover reduced by 14.2% in comparison with the same period of 2013. It is a direct index of a decrease of living standards. Inflation has increased by more than 24% in recent years; it is incomparable with a growth of pensions and salaries. 330 thousand people have left the country during the last 7 years. The Armenian authorities’ policy led to appearance of many annoyed people and an escalation of confrontation between the authorities and society. Thus the words of the leader of PA, that the growth of prices and other problems put society on the verge of an explosion: “One wrong word or deed can take hundred thousands of people onto the streets.”

The conference of February 5th also defined new tendencies in internal policy. The ruling Republican Party of Armenia still monopolize power, including the majority in the parliament, control over force structures, the majority of the mass media. However, it doesn't have the people’s support. At the same time, the opposition is supported by the population. It has significant influence in the parliament (35%).

According to Yervand Bozoyan, the biggest crisis is the crisis of trust in the authorities today: “Even if the authorities present the best programs, they will be doomed to fail, due to the absence of the people’s trust.”