Nursultan Nazarbayev has been proposed to be reelected to the position of the president of Kazakhstan in advance. This was an initiative by Anatoly Bashmakov, the deputy chairman of the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan (APK) on Saturday at a session of the organization’s board. The address by the APK to the people of the country stated that “President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev should be given a new mandate of all-national confidence for the country to successfully pass through global challenges.”
Experts believe that there is no political alternative to Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan. It is expected that during the upcoming elections Nazarbayev will gain 95-97% of the votes. There are no doubts that the elections and their results will be found legitimate. Usually, negative evaluations of elections come from Western observers, but Nazarbayev has a positive image in the West – the President of Kazakhstan is actually a mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The next round of talks between the Normandy quartet could take place in Astana. This was stated yesterday by the press service of the Kazakhstani President, after telephone talks between Nazarbayev and Angela Merkel.
“The political mediation of Kazakhstan is not a new phenomenon. It is important for Astana to maintain its position “above the conflict”, as sanctions and the crisis in Ukraine directly negatively influence Kazakhstan. Participation in the settlement of the conflict, including various talks between the Normandy quartet in Astana, reflects the sincere interest of the President of Kazakhstan, rather than his PR goals,” Yulia Yakusheva, the Executive Director of the “North-South” analytical center, told Vestnik Kavkaza. According to her, such a position strengthens Nazarbayev’s weight in the country and abroad. At the same time, Nazarbayev doesn’t need to take such steps to increase his rating inside Kazakhstan. He is not only the most popular politician in the country for the majority of the population, but also the only option. Of course Nazarbayev has political opponents, but he has no real rival.
“Obviously, there is no political alternative to Nazarbayev in Kazakhstan. Thus, the elections will become a referendum on confidence in the foreign political, internal political, economic, and social model of the country’s development,” Daniyar Ashimbayev, the editor-in-chief of “Who Is Who in Kazakhstan” Encyclopedia, thinks. Speaking about the possible date of the elections, the political scientist suggested it would be April 25th: “I think all the technical procedures will take no more than a week, and the elections will be appointed for late April, most probably. This will coincide with the 25th anniversary of the first presidential elections.”
Ashimbayev stressed that early elections in Kazakhstan – both presidential and parliamentary ones – have become a political tradition of the republic. “Elections are being held to confirm the legitimacy of the chosen course of Kazakhstan in the context of the worsening foreign political situation. We can see what is going on in Eastern Europe. We see the active game of the West to destabilize the political systems in the post-Soviet space. We can see the games of terrorist and extremist groups. Thus, early elections have become a necessity from this point of view. They are also encouraged by the fact that certain groups in Kazakhstan try to rise the question of reconsidering the agreements within Eurasian integration,” Ashimbayev noted.
He also thinks that the need for early elections is determined by “the worsening economic situation”: “In recent months devaluation expectations have been stirred up artificially. They were stirred up by financial industrial groups. Thus, to confirm the chosen course, eliminate numerous questions and provide political support for the current course, early presidential elections will be held.”
Andrei Kazantsev, the Director of the MGIMO Analytical Center, noted that on February 14th the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan suggested early presidential elections. The reasoning was that “in the context of the growing global economic crisis and difficult international agenda”, the early elections would enable Kazakhstan to fulfil the program of Nurly Zhol effectively and continue implementation of long-term priorities in the development of the country. “This Wednesday a joint session of the chambers of parliament will take place. MPs will support the initiative by the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan. Probably on Thursday the head of the state will sign an act on holding early elections. The document also states that, under complicated global conditions, President of the country Nursultan Nazarbayev should be given a new mandate of all-national confidence for the country to successfully pass through a period of global challenges. The address calls on all Kazakhstan citizens to consolidate on the leader of the nation, Nursultan Nazarbayev,” Andrei Kazantsev told Vestnik Kavkaza.
According to him, the combination has clear moments. The initiative comes from President of Kazakhstan. It will be supported at all levels of power, and early elections will take place. There is no doubt that Nazarbayev will win. “Interpreting the situation in the context of political game rules, the President wants to prolong his duties in a difficult moment of the country’s history (the economic crisis, huge political pressure by foreign players), gain the support of the people, postponing the issue of a successor. He has done this before. There is another option. Re-elections will have to correct the internal political situation somehow and prepare the issue of a successor; it is theoretically possible, but it is not clear how it can be fulfilled,” Kazantsev thinks.
The political scientist Edward Poletayev points out the role of the APK in the process that has started on holding the early presidential elections. “2015 could be declared to be a year of the APK. Apparently, many initiatives will come from the organization. The initiative on early elections is resonant. The APK was founded by President Nazarbayev,” the political scientist said. According to Poletayev, the situation in Kazakhstan is not disastrous enough to hold new elections. The waves which touched on Russia – the ruble devaluation, sanctions – influenced Kazakhstan indirectly, but the country is not drowning. It has gold and forex reserves, and the National Fund. And it is able to survive in any crisis.
“However, elections are still on the agenda – this year or next. The point is how confident the Kazakh political elite feels,” Poletayev thinks. According to him, a lot of tasks have been fulfilled – the EaEU was established, the budget was shifted to a cost-cutting regime, while the attitudes of the population didn’t change to expect that Nazarbayev could fail in the elections.
Dosym Satpayev, the Director of the Kazakhstan Group of Risk Assessment, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the main issue is not the date of the presidential elections, but what will happen after them, from the point of view of power succession. Probably the elections will be the last for the current president, and that’s how they will differ from the previous elections. “It is very important to maintain political stability in the context of the growth of negative internal and foreign factors. It is a difficult task, as the elite often misinterpret long-term stability as conformist stagnation. The elections will be directed not only at prolongation of Nazarbayev’s presidency, but also at supporting the authorities' legitimacy,” Dosym Satpayev said.
“The initiative by the Assembly of Peoples of Kazakhstan will enable the majority of the Kazakh elite to recover their breath: a solution to the problem of the political legacy of Nursultan Nazarbayev has been postponed again. The national leader seemed to have made a decision to stop predictions by his supporters about who would be his successor. Expecting a new economic crisis, Nazarbayev is ready to continue heading the country,” political scientist Arkadi Dubnov told Vestnik Kavkaza. According to him, the West won’t stand against Nazarbayev’s victory; moreover, continuation of his presidency will be considered as good news. “In the context of the Ukrainian war, intensification of activities against Islamic State and the crisis in Greece, world leaders will be satisfied with the preservation of stable management in the major state of Central Asia. Moscow is also satisfied with Nazarbayev; it sees a guarantor of the Eurasian Economic Union in him, as well as a guarantor of Moscow’s influence in Kazakhstan,” Dubnov said.
