By Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
A few days ago, Vestnik Kavkaza forecast that the vagueness around the situation in Debaltsevo during the signing of the ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian Army and the “militia” of Donetsk and Luhansk would result in a failure. The agreement has unfortunately been spoiled. In reality, not formally.
The fight around Debaltsevo shifted to the city itself. Some Ukrainian military made it out of the city, some were captured. President Poroshenko said that Ukraine has started withdrawal of its military and vehicles from the city. The Ukrainian leader continues insisting that the troops were not surrounded. The latter raises questions why Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offers to mediate and guarantee security in the withdrawal of the military from the city. The Belarusian leader is either misinformed about the situation on the frontline or he is too well-informed. In any case, it is obvious that the military were not in control of Debaltsevo, a defeat would have serious military and political consequences.
European allies of Kiev are skeptical about the military success of the Ukrainian Army in the east of the country, as stated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Munich Security Conference. The chancellor has been speaking against shipments of lethal weapons for the Ukrainian army, she does not believe in Ukraine’s success in fighting against the Russian war machine.
Der Spiegel reported that in Moscow Benjamin Bidder says Kiev should recognize the loss of Donetsk. The war, in his opinion, is an instrument Russia is using to rewrite the results of the Maidan revolution. The reporter assumes that the martial law Petro Poroshenko was planning to declare would betray the ideals of the Maidan, the elections would be cancelled. Berlin and Washington would probably interpret developments in Debaltsevo differently in the disputes around shipments of weapons to Ukraine. Germany has put a lot of diplomatic efforts and its own international prestige into the Minsk Agreement, so it would interpret the capture of Debaltsevo as the final breach of the Minsk Agreements. Berlin would turn a blind eye to Kiev’s loss of control and would continue insisting on a ceasefire along the frontline.
Politologist Stefan Meister told Vestnik Kavkaza that Moscow was very successfully using the controversies between Europe and the U.S., in terms of weapon supplies to Ukraine, undermining their unity in approaches to the conflict. The Republicans have started harsher rhetoric against the EU and Barack Obama’s administration. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said that the German chancellor and the president of France were legitimizing separation of a sovereign nation in Europe with the help of the U.S. president for the first time in 70 years. Both senators attended the Munich Security Forum and demanded immediate shipments of defensive weapons to Ukraine. Angela Merkel’s position back then was a lot more diplomatic.
Should lethal weapons be sent to Ukraine, the Minsk Agreements would be completely breached, as stated by Speaker of the Russian State Duma Sergey Naryshkin.
Formally, confirmation of the failure of the Minsk Agreement in Moscow may have serious consequences. Tensions between Europeans and Americans would rise, because the former would blame Washington for the failure of the negotiating process. The “Militias” of Donetsk and Luhansk would continue their offensive on Mariupol. Defending the city would be hard after the fall of the strongest forces of the Ukrainian army in Debaltsevo. Poroshenko’s statements about a gradual withdrawal of forces and vehicles from Debaltsevo and denial of surrounding of the troops are a hint that he wants to minimize the negative public response and continue the Minsk process in the context of the reality on the frontline. The president has not explained why the troops were leaving the city, despite claiming a few days ago that it would stay under their control. Data about new losses in the conflict zone are yet to be announced. The fate of the Minsk Agreement will greatly depend on the internal political situation in Ukraine in light of the defeat in Debaltsevo.
European allies of Kiev skeptical about success of Ukrainian army in eastern territoriesBy Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik KavkazaA few days ago, Vestnik Kavkaza forecast that the vagueness around the situation in Debaltsevo during the signing of the ceasefire agreement between the Ukrainian Army and the “militia” of Donetsk and Luhansk would result in a failure. The agreement has unfortunately been spoiled. In reality, not formally. The fight around Debaltsevo shifted to the city itself. Some Ukrainian military made it out of the city, some were captured. President Poroshenko said that Ukraine has started withdrawal of its military and vehicles from the city. The Ukrainian leader continues insisting that the troops were not surrounded. The latter raises questions why Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko offers to mediate and guarantee security in the withdrawal of the military from the city. The Belarusian leader is either misinformed about the situation on the frontline or he is too well-informed. In any case, it is obvious that the military were not in control of Debaltsevo, a defeat would have serious military and political consequences. European allies of Kiev are skeptical about the military success of the Ukrainian Army in the east of the country, as stated by German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the Munich Security Conference. The chancellor has been speaking against shipments of lethal weapons for the Ukrainian army, she does not believe in Ukraine’s success in fighting against the Russian war machine. Der Spiegel reported that in Moscow Benjamin Bidder says Kiev should recognize the loss of Donetsk. The war, in his opinion, is an instrument Russia is using to rewrite the results of the Maidan revolution. The reporter assumes that the martial law Petro Poroshenko was planning to declare would betray the ideals of the Maidan, the elections would be cancelled. Berlin and Washington would probably interpret developments in Debaltsevo differently in the disputes around shipments of weapons to Ukraine. Germany has put a lot of diplomatic efforts and its own international prestige into the Minsk Agreement, so it would interpret the capture of Debaltsevo as the final breach of the Minsk Agreements. Berlin would turn a blind eye to Kiev’s loss of control and would continue insisting on a ceasefire along the frontline. Politologist Stefan Meister told Vestnik Kavkaza that Moscow was very successfully using the controversies between Europe and the U.S., in terms of weapon supplies to Ukraine, undermining their unity in approaches to the conflict. The Republicans have started harsher rhetoric against the EU and Barack Obama’s administration. Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham said that the German chancellor and the president of France were legitimizing separation of a sovereign nation in Europe with the help of the U.S. president for the first time in 70 years. Both senators attended the Munich Security Forum and demanded immediate shipments of defensive weapons to Ukraine. Angela Merkel’s position back then was a lot more diplomatic.Should lethal weapons be sent to Ukraine, the Minsk Agreements would be completely breached, as stated by Speaker of the Russian State Duma Sergey Naryshkin.Formally, confirmation of the failure of the Minsk Agreement in Moscow may have serious consequences. Tensions between Europeans and Americans would rise, because the former would blame Washington for the failure of the negotiating process. The “Militias” of Donetsk and Luhansk would continue their offensive on Mariupol. Defending the city would be hard after the fall of the strongest forces of the Ukrainian army in Debaltsevo. Poroshenko’s statements about a gradual withdrawal of forces and vehicles from Debaltsevo and denial of surrounding of the troops are a hint that he wants to minimize the negative public response and continue the Minsk process in the context of the reality on the frontline. The president has not explained why the troops were leaving the city, despite claiming a few days ago that it would stay under their control. Data about new losses in the conflict zone are yet to be announced. The fate of the Minsk Agreement will greatly depend on the internal political situation in Ukraine in light of the defeat in Debaltse
