Iran is ready to decrease the volume of gas supplies if the West steps up sanctions. The Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei stated this during a meeting with a delegation from one of the country’s provinces. “Europe and the whole world need gas. Iran obtains an instrument which can be used as sanctions, if it is necessary,” Lenta.ru cites him. Khamenei also stressed that, if Iran didn’t resist the West, “new restrictions on the nuclear program and new sanctions would be imposed.”
The Azerbaijani oil expert Seymur Aliyev said in an interview with Vestnik Kavkaza that Khameini’s threats seem irrational: “Gas supplies are provided through pipelines. There is no pipeline which connects Iran and Europe. Iran is not supplying Europe with gas or oil due to anti-Iranian sanctions. Iran exports oil to other countries. So it is unlikely that the statement will influence the European market.”
According to Aliyev, Iran could build gas exports to the European states using the infrastructure which is being built by Azerbaijan. “Only Azerbaijan is ready to export gas to Europe among the Caspian countries. The infrastructure is being built by Azerbaijan (Southern Gas Corridor). These are three pipelines – the Southern Gas Corridor consists of the South-Caucasus Gas Pipeline, TANAP and TAP. Iran could use the Corridor to transport gas to Europe through Baku. It is a much shorter route than building a new pipeline. At the moment there are no Iranian gas supplies to Europe,” the expert stressed.
Most gas extracted in Iran is used by the republic itself, some was exported to Turkey, according to Seymur Aliyev. “Today most Iranian gas is used by domestic consumers. The northern part of Iran uses gas supplies sold by Turkmenistan, as it lacks internal volumes of gas. They import gas themselves. In fact, Iranian gas is exported to Turkey only,” the expert pointed out.
The expert assumes that the threats were made to affect oil prices in some way. “Any statement on a reduction of oil supplies to any market can influence oil prices. It is a big advantage for all exporting countries, especially with falling oil prices,” the expert noted.
Moreover, he goes on, any reduction of oil and gas exports would harm Iran itself. “Gas contracts are usually made for 20-25 years, any breach would mean an arbitrary process and great losses. I don’t think it is a serious statement. To reduce oil exports means reducing a major part of Iran’s budget revenues. I don’t think Iran will decrease oil exports at the expense of its economy,” the expert said.
“Theoretically, Iran has an opportunity to launch its own sanctions against the West. However, in reality the West hasn’t been buying oil directly from Iran for a long period of time. It doesn’t depend on Iran. So, I believe Iran’s threats are unrealistic,” Seymur Aliyev concluded.
