Political scientist Stefan Meister on the crisis in Ukraine: we have to accept the loss of Donbass

 

Political scientist Stefan Meister on the crisis in Ukraine: we have to accept the loss of DonbassBy Orhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik KavkazaA year ago, when a large-scale political crisis broke out in Ukraine, it became evident in Germany, one of the key regional actors, that it lacked specialists in the new conflict regions. The head of the research into Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Stefan Meister, is one of the few experts who is familiar with the post-Soviet space. Some of the opinions of the analyst will certainly be disputed in Russia due to drastic differences in the interpretation of the events in Ukraine between the West and Moscow. But Meister's approach and ideas play a significant role in shaping the opinions of the German political and academic elites on the Ukrainian question, and, at least for this reason, they are of interest to Russian journalists.In his new analysis "Welcome, Escalation! Why Minsk 2 is not going to work" Meister writes that the new Minsk Agreement from February 12 allowed the Russian leadership to come much closer to its goal - to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence."The German Chancellor and the French President threw all their political weight into getting Russian leaders and eastern Ukrainian separatists to stop fighting and preventing the conflict from getting even worse. It became clear in the process that the EU has in fact only minimal power to influence Russia or change the situation in eastern Ukraine. Equally clear was the extent to which the region’s stabilization depends on Moscow’s pleasure," Meister writes.The political scientist believes that it was a triumph for Russian President Vladimir Putin when "the European Union’s most powerful politician, Angela Merkel, came all the way to Moscow to negotiate a cease-fire with him." At the same time, the Russian president, according to Meister, was able to achieve success on a number of issues without making any compromises. "The presence of separatist leaders at Minsk made them a de facto part of the negotiating process, thereby granting them indirect recognition. Elections to determine leadership in separatist areas have been stipulated. Kiev has been made responsible for paying pensions and social benefits in both separatist regions, for assuring monetary transactions there, and for maintaining the regions’ comprehensive rights within the framework of a decentralized Ukrainian state," the German political scientist notes.However, in his opinion, Russia has not yet fully achieved its goals and that is why for Moscow Minsk-2 is only a temporary solution on the way to a comprehensive settlement in the interests of the Russian Federation. "The war in eastern Ukraine is diminishing the Ukrainian government’s ability for internal reform, worsening the country’s economic and social conditions. This in turn sets back Ukraine’s integration with the EU and postpones the harmonization of standards – increasing the Ukrainian population’s potential for frustration. Until now, however, there has been no clear rejection of the idea of integrating Ukraine into the EU – or NATO," the analyst emphasizes. The same applies to the issue of the recognition of the separatists as legitimate partners, as well as the process of decentralization of the country under Russian influence.According to Meister, Ukraine and the EU have to accept the loss of the two separatist regions, as well as of Crimea: "This is what is needed to save the rest of Ukraine and prevent the state’s further destabilization. Kiev is entirely dependent on the EU’s negotiating skills and its ability to put pressure on Russia – and on the West’s readiness to pay a price. Neither tougher sanctions against Russia nor deliveries of American arms can stop the Russian leadership."Further, the expert writes: "Putin will always see to it that the separatists have equivalent or superior military power and that the costs of the economic sanctions can be borne. The EU’s indecisiveness on integrating Ukraine and setting up a proper Marshall-style plan for its recovery gives Moscow the chance to weaken the government in Kiev further and perhaps even bring it back into its own sphere of influence. The fact that Europe’s politicians are wary of facing the consequences of these realities makes the Russian bargaining position even stronger. Only a clear decision on whether or not to integrate Ukraine – with all that this involves in terms of financial and political commitment – could improve the EU’s ability to negotiate."The political analysts believes that if such a decision is not made, Moscow will dictate the next steps and compromises. As a result, the EU will see "a weak or disintegrating state emerge in its immediate neighborhood, with the high social, economic, and security costs that this entails."

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Orhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
A year ago, when a large-scale political crisis broke out in Ukraine, it became evident in Germany, one of the key regional actors, that it lacked specialists in the new conflict regions. The head of the research into Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations, Stefan Meister, is one of the few experts who is familiar with the post-Soviet space. Some of the opinions of the analyst will certainly be disputed in Russia due to drastic differences in the interpretation of the events in Ukraine between the West and Moscow. But Meister's approach and ideas play a significant role in shaping the opinions of the German political and academic elites on the Ukrainian question, and, at least for this reason, they are of interest to Russian journalists.
In his new analysis "Welcome, Escalation! Why Minsk 2 is not going to work" Meister writes that the new Minsk Agreement from February 12 allowed the Russian leadership to come much closer to its goal - to keep Ukraine in its sphere of influence.
"The German Chancellor and the French President threw all their political weight into getting Russian leaders and eastern Ukrainian separatists to stop fighting and preventing the conflict from getting even worse. It became clear in the process that the EU has in fact only minimal power to influence Russia or change the situation in eastern Ukraine. Equally clear was the extent to which the region’s stabilization depends on Moscow’s pleasure," Meister writes.
The political scientist believes that it was a triumph for Russian President Vladimir Putin when "the European Union’s most powerful politician, Angela Merkel, came all the way to Moscow to negotiate a cease-fire with him." At the same time, the Russian president, according to Meister, was able to achieve success on a number of issues without making any compromises. "The presence of separatist leaders at Minsk made them a de facto part of the negotiating process, thereby granting them indirect recognition. Elections to determine leadership in separatist areas have been stipulated. Kiev has been made responsible for paying pensions and social benefits in both separatist regions, for assuring monetary transactions there, and for maintaining the regions’ comprehensive rights within the framework of a decentralized Ukrainian state," the German political scientist notes.
However, in his opinion, Russia has not yet fully achieved its goals and that is why for Moscow Minsk-2 is only a temporary solution on the way to a comprehensive settlement in the interests of the Russian Federation. "The war in eastern Ukraine is diminishing the Ukrainian government’s ability for internal reform, worsening the country’s economic and social conditions. This in turn sets back Ukraine’s integration with the EU and postpones the harmonization of standards – increasing the Ukrainian population’s potential for frustration. Until now, however, there has been no clear rejection of the idea of integrating Ukraine into the EU – or NATO," the analyst emphasizes. The same applies to the issue of the recognition of the separatists as legitimate partners, as well as the process of decentralization of the country under Russian influence.
According to Meister, Ukraine and the EU have to accept the loss of the two separatist regions, as well as of Crimea: "This is what is needed to save the rest of Ukraine and prevent the state’s further destabilization. Kiev is entirely dependent on the EU’s negotiating skills and its ability to put pressure on Russia – and on the West’s readiness to pay a price. Neither tougher sanctions against Russia nor deliveries of American arms can stop the Russian leadership."
Further, the expert writes: "Putin will always see to it that the separatists have equivalent or superior military power and that the costs of the economic sanctions can be borne. The EU’s indecisiveness on integrating Ukraine and setting up a proper Marshall-style plan for its recovery gives Moscow the chance to weaken the government in Kiev further and perhaps even bring it back into its own sphere of influence. The fact that Europe’s politicians are wary of facing the consequences of these realities makes the Russian bargaining position even stronger. Only a clear decision on whether or not to integrate Ukraine – with all that this involves in terms of financial and political commitment – could improve the EU’s ability to negotiate."
The political analysts believes that if such a decision is not made, Moscow will dictate the next steps and compromises. As a result, the EU will see "a weak or disintegrating state emerge in its immediate neighborhood, with the high social, economic, and security costs that this entails."