Is there a future for the Prosperous Armenia Party?

Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Especially for Vestnik Kavkaza

An extraordinary congress of the Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) on March 5 responded to questions related to the future activities of the party. PAP's leader, big businessman Gagik Tsarukyan, told the Congress of his decision to resign as party chairman and head of the parliamentary faction, as well as to withdraw from active politics. "In every possible political way I tried to fight for a solution to the problems of concern to our people. However, I have always been against a "Maidan" and could not forgive myself for the blood of even one innocent person. This is the limit that is beyond my power," Tsarukyan said, adding that he will continue to assist in the spheres of culture, education, science and sport, and will build churches, schools and gyms.

Congress delegates almost unanimously elected the secretary of the parliamentary faction of the same name as the new leader of the PAP, Naira Zohrabyan, whose candidacy was proposed by Tsarukyan. As PAP political council deputy, Vardan Vardanyan was elected former Minister of Urban Development. So the party Congress gave an answer to the first important question about the political future of Tsarukyan. Despite numerous predictions of some experts and pro-government media that as a result of confrontation with the authorities Tsarukyan will leave politics and give up his parliamentary seat, he retired from politics only de jure and de facto remained in the PAP and will continue to have an indirect impact on political processes. Tsarukyan remains in politics in a different status - an ordinary member of the faction and a party member.

The second important aspect is that it is unlikely that the forecasts are correct that PAP will break up into several parts. Yes, some of its members have left PAP, including the mayors of Abovyan and Gyumri, but these people are related to business, and government has some leverage on them. It is possible that someone else will also leave PAP, but the party, as the second largest force in the country, is likely to remain. Ex-Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanyan left PAP, but he remained in the faction, and apparently will continue to represent Armenia at international events. Another thing is that he is no longer able to affect intra-party decisions. Oskanyan explained his departure by the fact that the party failed to implement the desire of the absolute majority of the population to implement radical changes and put the country on the right path of development.

Oskanyan's exit from the party outlined the scope of a third important factor – the reduction of the influence of PAP ex-president Robert Kocharyan. The processes occurring in the party have led to a fall in the number of PAP people associated with Kocharyan. Many believe that Kocharyan has lost much influence on the party and now his figure is seen as potentially weak. Most likely, Kocharyan, who was the author of the PAP project, seeing it as a springboard to return to power as prime minister, has been defeated.

Attention should be paid to two important points. Firstly, at the end of the congress the new leader of PAP, Naira Zohrabyan, declared that the party is now in the opposition. Until now, PAP de jure called itself an alternative to the authorities and representatives of the PAP did not use the term "opposition". Secondly, the representatives of the party said that the PAP is an opponent of the constitutional reforms initiated by the government. The question of constitutional reforms is most important to President Serzh Sargsyan, who after the end of his second term plans to reproduce with them his authority.

According to political technologist Armen Badalyan, the results of attack on the PAP, the tax and law-enforcement agencies have demonstrated the weaknesses of PAP compared to the ruling Republican Party of Armenia. The ruling party much better and more cleverly uses its outreach and financial resources than the PAP. However, Badalyan is sure that the PAP approach is right, which did not go for direct confrontation with the authorities: "Politics is the art of the possible; if you can attack - attack; if not, then do not attack. The retreat of PAP is the right step. I think that PAP should be grateful to Serzh Sargsyan, whose speech played the role of an indicator in determining the power of their own shortcomings."

Of course, as a result of confrontation with the authorities, PAP suffered some losses - there was some outflow from the party, and the whereabouts of the PAP-controlled television channel "Ketron" ("Center"), which, according to some media, came under the control of the authorities. In addition, PAP suffered damage to its image, since the party has not kept its promise and refused to hold a rally on February 20. However, with proper and timely steps, PAP can restore its position in the political field. However, despite the uproar raised by official propaganda, PAP did not incur the losses expected. Some experts believe that in the political field of Armenia there was only one change - the change of PAP's leader.