By Giorgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The gradual fall of Georgian Dream's approval rating is confirmed even by sociologists aligned with the government. They have always been noting that a slight drop in the popularity of Georgian Dream did not mean rising popularity of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement.
But what are the factors that make the approval ratings dwindle, thus delegitimizing the Georgian Dream politically after its recent universal popularity and indisputable victory at the parliamentary polls of October 1, 2012?
This requires recollection of its past success: the coalition won primarily because the Dream coincided with the desire of the majority of the population to make peace and end the 25-year period of wars, upheavals and instability.
Financial and economic problems, especially the devaluation of the national currency by 35%, are the main causes of the weakening of the party.
Devaluation has not caused rocketing prices for essential commodities because the Georgian market was flexible enough to overcome the shock without inflation. Despite devaluation, the government managed to prevent rising fees for gas and electricity by concluding negotiations with Azerbaijan, the supplier of about 100% of the natural gas in the country.
Clients with mortgage loans to pay in dollars suffered the heaviest blow, because their income is in laris. They are the minority though. The current crisis has not affected the medical insurance available for all citizens.
So why is the Georgian Dream's rating falling? The reasons should be searched for in the psychology of post-Soviet Georgian society, its demands for consolidation in the government, a transparent and clear program, confidence in the ability to respond to challenges adequately. As Zbigniew Brzezinski wittily pointed out, the Georgian government will be strong as long as it looks strong.
After the conflicts with Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the civil war, the Rose Revolution and the shock therapy of radical reforms, Georgian society is tired of upheavals and expects the government to avoid new conflicts. The latter is what disappoints its followers more and more.
Billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the coalition, made a sudden exit and left the political processes. He does make political statements once in a while, criticizes the president and the opposition, creating the impression that the official authorities are only a secondary institution in the background of his informal power over the country. Such uncertainty doubtlessly looks unappealing to the majority of Georgians. "When you are leaving, leave!" is what some of the most devoted supporters of Ivanishvili in the past are saying now, because informal control is regarded as instability and insecurity.
The existing government under informal control of the billionaire works against the hard-earned feeling of stability. The syndrome of instability and uncertainty goes downhill simultaneously with the growing discords within the ruling coalition. It used to be eclectic and consisted of parties with antagonistic values, from conservative nationalists to radical libertarians. Through time, the eclecticity started to transform into an inability to make expected decisions or, even worse, into controversial decisions and statements by the factions constituting the coalition.
Meanwhile, the schism between the president and the prime minister is worsening, no one can tell who is the true leader of the coalition or the Georgian Dream Party. There are many leaders and speakers, who talk a lot and hardly do it in unison. Moreover, they demonize each other.
Georgian Dream has failed to offer society a clear and understandable program of normalizing relations with Russia. The foreign political sector still follows the track laid by the United National Movement of Saakashvili. The new authorities have failed to develop any alternative development project.
All the impartial factors undermine the rating of the ruling coalition. Time is running out, the coalition has about a year to rectify the situation before the next parliamentary polls, to consolidate the government and come up with a concrete program of actions in foreign and domestic policy.
