Victoria Panfilova, an observer of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
A three-day official visit of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Kazakhstan began on Thursday. The Turkish leader's first day in Astana, where the talks with his counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev were held, was marked by an impressive volume of signed contracts and agreements, as well as forward-looking statements of Kazakh-Turkish cooperation.
The most interesting statement of Nursultan Nazarbayev is that "the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) will open up opportunities for Turkish business to enter new markets." This will happen through Kazakhstan, obviously, to which Nazarbayev will contribute a lot. It should be noted that the moment is profitable. After the adoption of the resolution on the pro-Armenian genocide between Turkey and the Old World by the European Parliament, there will be a period of cooling - stung by Europe's actions, Ankara will demonstrate the vector of searching for new partners and alternatives to relations with Europe. In its turn, Kazakhstan hopes for access to the Middle East and Europe through Turkey, as well as support for the WTO accession.
Erdogan agreed that cooperation is fraught with mutually beneficial prospects. He said that he sees a strong reliable partner in Kazakhstan, which can help Turkey enter new markets and a new level of cooperation with the countries of the Caspian Sea, where Astana plays an important role, and to receive certain benefits from the Caspian energy resources.
However, the Director of the Analytical Center of the Institute of International Studies, Andrey Kazantsev, recommends not to hurry and not to overestimate these statements. According to him, a certain rapprochement between Turkey and the EEU is acceptable, especially if you do not forget about the emerging rapprochement between Moscow and Ankara on an energy basis. But it is doubtful that Turkey would be one of them. "The real and solid interests of Turkey are to get the maximum dividends from the transit of Russian gas, distancing themselves from the Ukrainian crisis. That will suit Moscow. But Moscow will not be happy with the expansion of the various structures conducting Turkish 'soft power' in the post-Soviet space, so it will be against Turkey's accession to the EEU. In addition, Turkey's accession to the alliance will cause a surplus of power centers in the Union and will reduce the negotiability of the members," Kazantsev said.
But, in his opinion, Turkey's entry into the SCO is quite realistic. There are many reputable players already, and the SCO can be regarded as the equivalent of an Asian UN, and Turkey will benefit from SCO membership.
"Kazakhstan can play the role of mediator between Russia and Turkey, as Kazakhstan and Russia have partnership relations, while Kazakhstan and Turkey are strategic allies," Andrey Kazantsev said.
An expert of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies, Azhdar Kurtov, agrees with Kazantsev's assessment about the prospects of Turkey's accession to the EEC. But he believes that it is not only the probable reluctance of Russia, but Turkey itself is not ready for membership in the alliance. "The relations between Ankara and Moscow are really on the rise. Of course, there are differences - Syria, Crimea, economic relations. The Turkish side blames Russia for mutual trade allegedly being unequal. At the same time, they consider only trade in goods, without taking services into account. Meanwhile, Russian tourism brings Turkey huge profits, not included in trade statistics. Such moments do not allow talk of Turkey's willingness to join the EEU," Azhdar Kurtov said.
In addition to discussing global topics, the parties reached concrete agreements in the sphere of bilateral relations by signing 19 commercial deals during the Kazakh-Turkish business forum worth more than $800 million. The press service of the Ministry for Investment and Development of Kazakhstan reported that, in addition, currently as part of revitalization of the 'New Synergy' joint program between the two countries, a list of joint projects has been formed, which includes 23 business initiatives costing more than 2.8 billion dollars. The sides have signed a memorandum of understanding on cooperation in the railway industry, a memorandum of understanding on a number of projects with the participation of Turkish companies in the South Kazakhstan region, an agreement on cooperation in the framework of the business council between the Kazakhstan Chamber of Commerce and the Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey, a memorandum cooperation to expand investments in Kazakhstan, a protocol on cooperation in science and technology, cooperation memorandums between KAZNEX INVEST and a number of Turkish companies. Kazakhstan and Turkey in the near future intend to bring the trade volume to $10 billion - the parties are not satisfied with the current volume of 3.5 billion, although they are sensitive to the fact that the low figure is due to the global economic crisis.
The head of the club of political scientists 'South Caucasus', Ilgar Velizde, commenting on the visit of the Turkish president to Kazakhstan, commenting on the fact that it had been organized in a difficult period for the region, said that this could have been caused by several factors. "First of all, we are talking about a possible reformatting of the whole system of regional policy, taking into account the possible political gain of Iran, the enhancing of the role of Saudi Arabia in regional affairs and the identification of Ankara's opportunities to affect the whole situation," Velizade believes. According to him, Turkey sees Kazakhstan not only as reliable ally in the Central Asian region, but also as an effective communicator with the countries at the core of Eurasian integration. At the heart of this core is quite a pragmatic implementation of projects and ideas. In particular, the development of transport communications, linking Central Asia with Turkey and China via the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, the idea of delivery of energy to Europe through alternative pipelines, the creation of a single fiber-optic cable, which could connect parts of the Eurasian continent. And, of course, we cannot forget about Turkey's bid to be the leader among the Turkic countries. Strategic rapprochement with powerful Kazakhstan fully meets this goal in the long term.
