Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European office of Vestnik Kavkaza
Leaders of the G7 countries (that’s the number of members of the informal organization of leading industrial states after the exclusion of Russia in 2014) will gather at the end of the week in Schloss Elmau, Bavaria. More than 18 thousand policemen have come to the beautiful Alpine region to provide security at the event. After mass riots of left radicals and anti-globalists during the opening of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt in March 2015 (more than 150 policemen were injured), the German authorities are seriously afraid of a repetition of similar developments in Bavaria.
However, the protests of “the enemies of capitalism” will hardly disturb the leaders of G7 from discussing more urgent problems of global policy. Moreover, there are a lot of them. Numerous conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and the post-Soviet space have demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the current security system and the inability of the leading actors to solve these problems. The superpowers couldn’t reach a relevant stability or at least a remote prospect of development in the planet’s places where wars are going on. Even though the agenda of the summit has an economic, environmental and social character, the world leaders will obviously use the opportunity to discuss not only private business of women or preservation of seas, but primarily the topical international agenda.
The situation in the international arena is disastrous. The talks on the Iranian nuclear program, which were encouraged by signing agreements in spring in Lausanne, could probably come to a dead-end. The struggle against the militants of Islamic State, which seems to be supported by the US and the coalition of Arab countries, is so ‘successful’ that today ISIS is controlling vast territories and has recently occupied important strategic facilities in Syria and Iraq. The dissolution of Libya, which was caused by killing Gaddafi, led to absolute anarchy and chaos in the country and uncontrollable armed groups. Meanwhile, Yemen ‘exploded’; and under Saudi Arabia’s support, a war against the Houthis was started there. Speaking about Europe itself, the Minsk Agreements on a settlement of the situation in Ukraine are regularly violated; the ceasefire is unstable; while there are no signs of a political resolution in the nearest future. Finally, the old conflicts in the South Caucasus haven’t been solved either. First of all, I mean the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict, which regularly shows itself in new bloody clashes.
In this context, many observers have a question whether it is the right step to exclude Russia from “the noble club” of leading industrial powers in such a situation. Paradoxically, representatives of industry stand against the decision. For example, the head of the Eastern Committee of the German Economy, Eckhard Cordes, thinks that the G7 summit in Bavaria is a missed opportunity for a dialogue with Russia. “Today, during the crisis, we need such platforms for cooperation,” he complains. Matthias Platzeck, the head of the German-Russian Forum, thinks that as the Minsk Agreements should be fulfilled within an open partnership with Moscow, Russia should be returned to the format of the G7. Moreover, Matthias Platzeck believes that the situation in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and Yemen cannot be settled without Russia, neither can progress in the talks with Iran be achieved without it. Plus, there is the skidding EU program of the Eastern Partnership; after the Riga summit, it actually hung in mid-air, due to the crisis in trust in relations between the West and Russia.
Should the world expect crucial decisions and agreements in Schloss Elmau? The former chancellor of Germany Helmut Schmidt says that his expectations from the summit are rather “limited.” Speaking about the situation in Ukraine, the politician expresses hope that nobody will try “to pour oil on flames” in the very difficult conflict. As for the Russian President, Helmut Schmidt notes that Putin could agree to participate in the summit, if somebody sent him an appropriate invitation. Schmidt understands the logic of the actions of the head of Russia in the international arena: “Putin is a person who has managed to restore Russia from the period of “the wild West” which was taking place under Yeltsin. He inherited the last colonial power; and now he tries to save it,” the former chancellor concluded. However, the current Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel stands radically against a return to the G8 format with the participation of Russia. According to her, Russia’s activities in Ukraine “contradict the values of the G7.” Therefore, “searching for joint approaches toward the greatest foreign political threats” which will take place at the summit in Bavaria, according to the vice-president of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, will be held without one of key international players. Whether the G7 activities are effective under such conditions is a rhetorical question.
