Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will make another attempt to get the Nagorno-Karabakh peace talks back on the road again: he invited his Azerbaijani and Armenian counterparts to Astrakhan for a trilateral summit to take place on October 27.
Russia is holding on to its leadership in the mediating process while the talks are in a state of crisis. Armenia hasn’t yet specified the terms of its accord with the Madrid principles, stipulating the withdrawal of Armenian troops and the opening of the border between the two countries, while the legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh is to be determined later. The document also implies the opening of borders between Armenia and Turkey and economic co-operation between the three states. Azerbaijan accepted the principles, with some reservations, and rejected Russian initiatives voiced at the St. Petersburg conference.
Diplomatic difficulties triggered violations of the ceasefire accord and experts do not rule out the possibility of an armed settlement of the conflict. Azerbaijan has increased its military expenditure and plans to allocate 2 billion dollars to the military budget, while Yerevan is capable of allocating only 400 million dollars to its military needs.
Russian diplomats face a hard task in getting the conflict parties to resume negotiations once again. However, the forthcoming OSCE summit in Astana is not expected to introduce any major changes to the situation. An expert OSCE Minsk Group team has recently visited the Karabakh territories occupied by Armenian troops and assessed the current state of affairs.
Moscow hopes to persuade both sides to abstain from violence, relying on its equally warm relations with Yerevan and Baku. That is, however, the weak spot in Russia's position: it is trying to preserve its friendly relations with both the South Caucasus states and thus is deprived of leverage for exercising real pressure.
Medvedev’s invitation to the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to the roundtable discussion in Astrakhan is a brave step, demonstrating his sincere interest in the progress of the peace negotiations and the absence of any fear of image damage in case of failure.
Evgeny Krishtalev. Exclusively to VK
