The gas conflict between Turkey and Iran has been lasting a few years. Ankara demanded compensation from Iran for Tehran's violation of a contract signed by the sides on gas exports from Iran to Turkey. The court found Tehran guilty. However, according to the Minister of Oil of Tehran, Bijan Namdar Zangeneh, Turkey didn’t achieve all its goals after the court’s decision. Initially, Turkey insisted on a decrease of the gas price by 25 percent, justifying it by unstable supplies from Iran. Later Ankara insisted on a decrease of 37.5 percent, as if “Tehran had overpriced its gas.” The Iranian Minister says that Turkey lost the first trial. As for the second trial, Tehran had to pay compensation to Turkey, according to a 13 to 15-percent discount, Iran.ru reports.
Meanwhile, according to Irina Svistunova, Senior Researcher of the Center of Asia and the Middle East, the relations between Turkey and Iran, as we know, historically represent a complex set of overlapping and competing interests. “Any geopolitical changes in the Middle East, which affect the international position of Turkey or Iran, pose challenges for the relations between the two countries. In this sense, the most important recent development is the achievement of an agreement between the Group of Six international mediators and Iran. The gradual lifting of the sanctions against Iran and Tehran's coming out of international isolation may seriously change the regional and global geopolitical balance,” Svistunova said.
She thinks that Turkey always advocated a negotiation process between Iran and the Group of Six and did not support tougher sanctions: “You can recall the attempts of the Turkish leadership to mediate in resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, in particular the joint declaration signed by Turkey, Iran and Brazil in 2010.”
Official Ankara says that the cancellation of sanctions will give a serious impetus to the development of the Turkish-Iranian agreements.
In the economic sphere the changes will be positive and mutually beneficial. “The lifting of sanctions will remove barriers to energy imports from Iran and for the implementation of the transit project of Iranian gas to Europe through Turkey. In particular the possible connection of Iranian gas to the project of the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline, which at this stage involves the transit of Azerbaijani gas to Greece and Italy,” the expert reminds.
During the period of the sanctions regime Ankara and Tehran were seeking opportunities for trade and economic cooperation to bypass the sanctions. In particular, Turkey was paying in gold for imports of Iranian natural gas. “The parties announced their intention to increase their trade volume to 30 billion dollars long ago, but this was not possible to achieve. At the end of 2015 the volume of trade between Turkey and Iran amounted to 13.7 billion dollars. And now, according to the forecast of the Turkish-Iranian Business Council, the lifting of sanctions will allow the two countries to achieve the planned trade volume of $30 billion in the next 2-3 years,” Svistunova states.
In the political sphere there are various challenges for Turkish-Iranian relations. “The lifting of sanctions and beginning of the cooperation with the West would allow Iran to increase its influence in the regional issues and get a new role in the international arena. And in this area it is quite reasonable to expect increased competition for regional influence between Turkey and Iran. Each of the two countries claims regional leadership, each strives to offer its own model of development as a model for other Islamic countries,” the expert thinks.
Turkish experts have identified possible problems.
Firstly, the position of Turkey in the Middle East could weaken the possibility of joint actions between Iran, the US, Russia or China.
Secondly, the activation of the support of Shiite forces from emerging from isolation and Iran strengthening its economic position significantly narrows the range of possibilities of Turkey in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
Thirdly, in the long term, Iran's rapprochement with the West can lead to Tehran attempting to become Turkey's competitor in the geostrategic role that it plays in the Middle East for the Western world.
“Turkey is scared of the sharp increase of Iran's regional influence after its emergence from isolation. Of course, the potential for conflict exists. But throughout the recent history of their relations, Turkey and Iran have always shown willingness and ability to limit their competition with the aim of avoiding open conflict, and carefully lined up areas of cooperation. Despite the differences on regional issues, the development of Turkish-Iranian relations in the new geopolitical realities will take place within the traditional paradigm of searching for an optimal balance between competition and cooperation,” Svistunova is sure.
