Last year, China's GDP grew by only 7%, this is the lowest figure in 25 years. What are the structural causes of the deceleration in China? Are there any prospects of integration processes in the Asia-Pacific region? Does Russia have chances to attract the capital flowing away from China? The Gaidar Forum participants tried to answer these and other questions during a discussion of the topic ‘China's economy: the possible scenarios and strategies for Russia."
Predicting the future of China's economy, the experts suggested two diametrically opposed views. According to some, the current dynamics are not bad, and China will be able to normalize the situation in the economy by changing the pattern of growth and structural reforms. For others, China will have to make a more or less ‘hard landing’, and last year's stock market collapse will result in a full-blown debt crisis.
A professor of Beijing University, the director of the China Center for Economic Research, Justin Yiu Lin believes that pessimism is not justified with regard to China, as the country will be able to achieve its goals even with a moderate growth rate. The expert recalled that similar problems arise with other developing countries, including Russia, India and Brazil, but some fluctuations in growth will not lead to the collapse of the economy.
Even before the forum, Justin Yiu Lin said that the economy is doing very well: "Last year the growth of our industry reached the level of 7%. And last year the growth in the first half year was in the range of 7%, and then it added another 6.9%. That is, about 6.9-7%. That is, in fact, all the goals set by the government have been achieved. With regard to inflation expectations, the basic parameters have been observed in the range of 3%. The real inflation rate was 2.5%. That is, this goal has also been achieved. According to the unemployment rate, the goal was to keep it at a level of less than 5%. And the actual figures of the unemployment rate amounted to 4.5%. Of course, this growth is 7% less than the growth that was observed in the Chinese economy in recent years. Now China's economy is about 14% of the world economy, and 7% growth means that global growth is added 1% by China. Last year, the global economic growth was about 3.5%, that is, it means that China contributes about 30% to world growth. And I believe that China will remain the main driver of global economic growth.’’
The first vice-president of Gazprombank, Denis Kamyshev, also does not see reasons for great concern: "The process that is taking place in China is systemic, it causes a wave of panic due to the participants of the stock market." The expert considers the huge amount of the shadow banking to be a serious problem for the economy: "This is not the cause of the crisis, but a catalyst that will rock the boat. A large number of qualified investors in China, the output of the potential issuers as a result of privatization and the shift from bank financing to planned, and shadow banking are three trends that affect the stability of the stock market to varying degrees."
Meanwhile, the director of the Russian Research Center of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation RANHiGS, Natalia Stapran, believes that, unlike the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, which strictly implements Anglo-Saxon principles, China is more focused on cooperation, which it is important to join timely for Russia, offering Beijing an interesting alternative.
