The primaries of the presidential elections have started in the USA. The parties validate candidates for the election race for the position of the head of the country, which will take place in November [See 'Russia following the US election campaign']. The leader in the polls from the Republican Party, Donald Trump, was defeated by Ted Cruz at the primaries in Iowa. Third place was taken by the senator from Florida, Marco Rubio.
Boris Mezhuyev, Russian philosopher and political scientist, deputy editor of the newspaper ‘Izvestia’, thinks that the main sensation of the Iowa caucuses became the third place of Rubio: “The fact that he took third place was predictable. But of all the candidates, he showed the greatest growth last week. His position in Iowa increased dramatically, and it happened very quickly. Exactly within the last week. He gathered as many votes of delegates as Trump. The result can make a difference, unfortunately not for the better for Trump.”
According to the expert, there was a split between the moderates and the conservatives in the Republican Party: “If the moderate Republicans are dissatisfied with Trump, they will choose Rubio. If conservatives are unhappy with Cruz, they will also prefer Rubio. If Rubio withdraws his candidacy, his electorate will go to Cruz, it is unlikely to go to Trump.”
Mezhuyev says that “supporters of Rubio, and it is primarily the neo-conservative press, are now celebrating a victory and saying that the wind is blowing at Rubio's back, that the youth are for him, the voters who have not decided are for him, the doubtful voters are for him. He gathers groups that have not decided yet for whom they will vote. If in New Hampshire he shows a good result, it would certainly be a great challenge for Trump.”
Speaking about consequences of the election campaign for the Russian-American relations, the expert expresses concerns about the appearance of Rubio as an independent figure: “A very aggressive wing of the Republican Party is behind him, the so-called neo-conservatives. His statements clearly indicate that his policy would be the toughest, at least on Middle Eastern issues and the Ukrainian one too. Both Cruz and Trump are still more favorable for Russia.”
As for the Democratic Party, the former Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, defeated Senator Bernie Sanders with a slight advantage in Iowa. However, Mezhuyev says that the unexpected success of Sanders is not the unexpected political awakening of socialism: “The left wave in America is insufficient to maintain their own candidate, especially after Obama.”
