This spring France will hold the presidential election. It will be held in two rounds: the first round is scheduled for April 23, the second - on May 7. The ex-Prime Minister Manuel Valls and former Minister of education Benoit Hamon will compete at the crucial primaries of the ruling Socialist Party. The winner will face the favorites of opinion polls - the leader of 'the National Front' Marine Le Pen, 27% of the French are ready vote for her, and the candidate of the Republican party Francois Fillon, who is backed by some 26% of voters.
Benoit Hamon has topped the poll in the first round of the Socialist primary race. As suggested by a Professor of the Department of Foreign Policy and International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Evgenya Obichkina, Hamon represent a large part of the electorate, which would vote for the left. According to her, the French society is divided, which was a consequence of crises: "The protracted economic crisis radicalized French voters and has upped the ante in the game. Not only president is elected now, but a future path of France's development and overcoming of three extremely serious crises - the economic crisis, the migration-related crisis and the crisis linked to the growing threat of terrorism, that is, a crisis of personal safety. It is necessary to choose the recipes, the principles to overcome the crisis - the liberal or of social justice."
Benoit Hamon
According to the expert, Hamon great has chances to accumulate the aspirations of the left electorate, but Valls is cleverly positioning himself: "He makes very strong statements, and when one needs to express his identity, his dissimilarity to an opponent in the first round pf the presidential election here comes the Trump effect. The possible rival is [the former Prime Minister Francois] Fillon and Marine Le Pen, who always make very strong statements, because she can accumulate expectations of protest voters."
Evgenya Obichkina believes that if the left will vote with the heart, vote ideologically in the second round of primaries, Hamon has more chances. Among the Socialists there is a huge percentage of those who will vote for anyone but Walls. The election results, according to the expert, are unpredictable, because the French political system is experiencing a very serious transformation.
Manuel Valls
