The civil war in Syria and the international fight against Islamic State in the context of the speeches by the Russian and US presidents at the UN General Assembly have finally occupied the central agenda of world politics. The first attacks by the Russian Air Forces on targets in Syria caused a heavy reaction in the German information space. Political scientists and experts presented various points of view on the new turn in the Middle East politics and the strengthening Russian factor.
Rolf Tophoven, an expert on security policy and terrorism studies, points out in his interview to Focus Online that he doesn’t believe that Vladimir Putin will be limited to air attacks on the positions of Islamic State only. According to Tophoven, on the one hand, the Russian activity in Syria is aimed at the struggle against Islamic State; on the other hand, it is aimed at preventing attacks on the governmental forces. “Putin has demonstrated that he is a very experienced player in the diplomatic poker in the Middle East. After all the delays and contradictions in the policy of the Western countries, Putin has taken a clear step, preparing a zugzwang for the West,” the expert believes. Meanwhile, Tophoven doesn’t think that the Russian air attacks will weaken Islamic State significantly, as similar actions by the American coalition against ISIS haven’t brought any serious results yet.
Eberhard Sandschneider, the Director for Studies of the German Foreign Political Society (DGAP), speaks about the role of the Syrian crisis in relations between the West and Russia in his interview for Deutschlandradio Kultur. The political scientist supports cooperation between the West and Russia on the Syrian issue, despite significant contradictions over Ukraine. “If somebody wants to solve international problems, he cannot keep silent in relations with such a big and influential country as Russia,” Sandschneider thinks. The political scientist doesn’t believe that Ukraine will “be sacrificed” by Germany in favor of partnership with Russia. “However, Crimea is a different thing. Sooner or later we will have to make up our minds about the fact that Crimea belongs to Russia, even if we never recognize this,” he says. According to the DGAP Director, the West will have to conduct a dialogue with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad as well, “even though he is guilty of mass murders of his citizens,” but he is a “lesser evil” in comparison with the terrorists of Islamic State. Moreover, the current situation leaves no choice for the West. “The issue is not about a moral evaluation, but the military-political reality on the battlefield. And there, as the Englishmen say, on the ground, there is no way which would bypass Bashar al-Assad and his troops and would help to oust the terrorists of ISIS,” Sandschneider stresses.
Heiko Wimmen, an expert of the think tank of Stiftung für Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), told the Austrian periodical of Der Standard that the Syrian conflict is one of a few platforms in the world arena where Russia can act as a global player. “Syria also plays a role in another conflict of hegemonies which is taking place in “the western yard” of Russia – Ukraine. Russia sends a clear signal: we stand behind our allies, and those who have Russia among their allies always stay in power, even if the U.S. wants to overthrow them. The Russian signal is directed at Europe and Washington, as well as to its authoritarian neighbors – Belarus and Turkmenistan,” the political scientist thinks. According to him, the central role of Russia in Syria is getting recognition today, while the Ukrainian conflict is paling into insignificance – and from this point of view the Russian strategy is successful. “However, I think it’s hardy that Russia and the U.S. will reach understanding on the Syrian issue with certain results. How will it look like in practice? The international coalition has been bombing positions of Islamic State for a year and it has got no success yet. What will 20 Russian military aircrafts which are located in Latakia change, if they are going to bomb positions of ISIS together with the Americans?” Wimmen asks. “Militarized structures of Islamic State and the an-Nusra Front cannot be destroyed without a complex military intervention,” the expert is sure.
“From the practical political point of view it means that if we don’t want rehabilitate al-Assad and modernize his army for political and ethic reasons, it is necessary to create a military coalition. And it will demand an international mandate, which cannot be given without Russia,” he concludes.
